UFC Vegas 111: Bonfim vs. Brown Saturday 11/8

Another week, another UFC card at the APEX in Las Vegas. Hopefully someone isn't throwing a fight this week.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 110): -0.1u

2025 YTD: -24.54u

Gabriel Bonfim (-170) vs. Randy Brown (+140):

It's another underwhelming main event, but this week we have a five round welterweight bout between Gabriel Bonfim and Randy Brown. Bonfim has won three straight and five of six since joining the UFC. He's coming off a debeatable split decision win over Stephen Thompson. Brown has won four of his last five and coming off a second round knockout of Nicolas Dalby, becoming the first fighter to finish Dalby in thirty pro fights. His loss in that span is a contentious split decision to Bryan Battle who came in well overweight at 175 pounds. Bonfim is always a threat for an early finish because he has powerful striking and a nasty arsenal of chokes, but I'm still not sold on his cardio especially in a five round fight. Brown can do a little bit of everything, but isn't elite in any facet. He'll have a two inch height and five inch reach advantage over Bonfim so that length could serve him well in controlling the distance. Bonfim should have early success wrestling and may even find a finish, but if he doesn't I would strongly favor Brown from the third round on. I'll go with Brown to weather the early storm and take over late.

PREDICTION: Randy Brown by DEC

Joseph Morales (-425) vs. Matt Schnell (+330):

In the co-main event, Joseph Morales takes on Matt Schnell in the flyweight division. Morales is coming in off winning the flyweight tournament on the most recent season of "The Ultimate Fighter" where he submitted Alibi Idris via triangle choke in the second round. This is Morales' second stint in the UFC after going 1-2 from 2017-2018. Schnell is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jimmy Flick. Prior to that, he had lost four of five and been finished in all four losses. I thought Schnell retired so I was surprised to see him in this matchup. Morales isn't a great striker, but it doesn't take much to hurt Schnell and Morales is a better wrestler and submission grappler. I expect Morales to score some early takedowns and eventually submit Schnell inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Joseph Morales by 2nd RD SUB

Uros Medic (-150) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+125):

Uros Medic is coming off a first round knockout of Gilbert Urbina in just over a minute and now has five wins in the UFC, all by knockout. He has three losses, all by finish as well. He'll face Muslim Salikhov who is coming off a 42 second knockout victory of Carlos Leal. Prior to that, he knocked out Song Kenan in the first round and took a split decision over Santiago Ponzinibbio. This is a battle of two strikers, but youth and power are on the side of Medic. Both have durability concerns, but I'm more concerned with Salikhov's first round knockout loss to Randy Brown. Salikhov is flashy, but he's volume. I won't be surprised if Salikhov catches Medic, but I don't think Salikhov is going to hold up to the power of Medic.

PREDICTION: Uros Medic by 1st RD KO/TKO

Ismael Bonfim (-130) vs. Chris Padilla (+110):

Ismael Bonfim is coming off a first round doctor stoppage loss to Nazim Sadykhov and is now 2-2 in the UFC. He takes on Chris Padilla who has won three straight since joining the UFC and cashing as an underdog in all three fights. I was a lot more confident in Bonfim until he missed weight by five pounds and looked bad on the scale. However, if he's not sick or injured, he could rehydrate well and just be the bigger and stronger fighter than Padilla. I'm still going to pick Bonfim because he's a better striker and grappler than Padilla, but won't be surprised if he looks flat tomorrow.

PREDICTION: Ismael Bonfim by DEC

Marco Tulio (-170) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (+140):

Marco Tulio is 2-0 in the UFC with a second round knockout of Tresean Gore and a first round knockout of Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut. He also has a unanimous decision win over Yousri Belgaroui on the Contender Series that is aging quite well. He'll take on Christian Leroy Duncan who is coming off a first round destruction of Eryk Anders and has won two straight and five of seven since joining the UFC. This will be a fun striking battle, but I do have to slightly favor Tulio who is the more aggressive and powerful striker, while Duncan is the more technical of the two. Tulio also has some grappling upside and Duncan's two losses in the UFC came when he was controlled on the ground by Gregory Rodrigues and gave up some control to Armen Petrosyan. I'm not expecting a knockout from Tulio, but do think he takes a close decision.

PREDICTION: Marco Tulio by DEC

Hyder Amil (-140) vs. Jamall Emmers (+120):

Hyder Amil had won his first three fights in the UFC, but he's coming off a twenty six second knockout loss to Jose Delgado. He faces Jamall Emmers who has won two of his last three. He's coming off a first round knockout of Gabriel Miranda and also knocked out Dennis Buzukja in just 49 seconds. He was also knocked out in the first round by Nate Landwehr. Amil is a very aggressive fighter who will look to overwhelm his opponents with pace and pressure. Emmers has strong boxing and wrestling and is definitely the more skilled fighter, but I think this plays out like the Landwehr fight. Emmers has all the technical edges, but he's not built to win a brawl and that's where Amil thrives. Give me Amil to pour it on amd finish Emmers late in the first or early second round.

PREDICTION: Hyder Amil by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Ricky Simon (-180) vs. Raoni Barcelos (+150):

Ricky Simon has won two straight, an unimpressive unanimous decision over Cameron Smotherman and a surprising first round knockout of Javid Basharat. Prior to that, he had lost three straight. He faces Raoni Barcelos who has won three straight after going through a stretch where he lost four of five. Simon is an aggressive wrestler, but his wrestling has not looked as explosive as it once was and his striking is ok. If he's not scoring multiple takedowns, I don't see him winning many striking based fights. Barcelos is definitely on the tail end of his career, but he still has better striking than Simon and the defensive wrestling to keep this upright. I like Barcelos here to sprawl and brawl his way to victory in a slight upset.

PREDICTION: Raoni Barcelos by DEC

Jacqueline Cavalcanti (-245) vs. Mayra Bueno Silva (+200):

Jacqueline Cavalcanti is 4-0 since joining the UFC with two wins by unanimous decision and two by split decision. She takes on Mayra Bueno Silva who has lost three straight and moving back up to bantamweight after dropping a unanimous decision to Jasmine Jasudavicius at flyweight. Calvalcanti is a pretty solid striker and she's the more technical of the two, while Silva probably has more power. Silva is the more dangerous submission grappler, but she's not a good wrestler so I expect Calvalcanti to keep this standing and outvolume Silva to a decision win.

PREDICTION: Jacqueline Cavalcanti by DEC

Josh Hokit (-425) vs. Max Gimenis (+330):

This next fight is a matchup between two heavyweights who will be making their UFC debuts. Josh Hokit is coming off a second round stoppage on the Contender Series. He's 6-0 with all his wins by finish, four in the first round. He faces Max Gimenis who is 6-1 with five wins inside the distance, all in the first round with four coming by knockout. Hokit is a great athlete who was an All-American wrestler at Fresno State and even got a shot at playing fullback in the NFL with the San Francisco 49ers. Gimenis has an extensive grappling background, but has faced poor competition in MMA and was knocked out by 1-3 fighter. It's an interesting style clash because we have a strong wrestler in Hokit and a strong grappler in Gimenis. However, Hokit is the far better athlete and I expect him to chain wrestle and stay out of trouble until Gimenis starts to tire where he'll pick up a ground and pound stoppage. These two are both very inexperienced in MMA so anything is possible including an awful slop fest if this makes it to the final bell.

PREDICTION: Josh Hokit by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Denise Gomes (-170) vs. Tecia Pennington (+140):

Denise Gomes has won three straight and coming off an absolute thrashing of Elise Reed. She'll take on Tecia Pennington who has won two straight unanimous decisions over Luana Pinheiro and Carla Esparza after losing a controversial split decision to Tabatha Ricci. Gomes and Pennington both like to strike with Gomes having more and Pennington being the more technical striker. Gomes' defensive wrestling isn't great so maybe Pennington could look to wrestle, but she isn't a great wrestler and Gomes is probably too physical for her. I'll go with Gomes' power and aggression to get her the nod over Pennington.

PREDICTION: Denise Gomes by DEC

Daniel Marcos (-200) vs. Miles Johns (+160):

Daniel Marcos was landed his first loss last time out as he lost a unanimous decision to Montel Jackson. He's 4-1 in the UFC, but his split decision win over Davey Grant is very debateable. He faces Miles Johns who has lost two straight now after losing a razor close split decision to Jean Matsumoto. Marcos is primarily a striker, while Johns is your prototypical wrestle-boxer. Marcos isn't consistent with his volume on the feet, but I think he's a more dangerous striker than Johns, while Johns is obviously the better wrestler. Johns had typically been a low volume fighter, but he landed five takedowns against Matsumoto and produced a good volume of strikes. If that version shows up again, he probably beats Marcos and I'll take a shot on him as the underdog.

PREDICTION: Miles Johns by DEC

Zachary Reese (-305) vs. Jackson McVey (+245):

Kicking off the action is a 195 pound catchweight bout between Zachary Reese and Jackson McVey. Reese is taking the bout on just days notice after Robert Valentin pulled out due to injury and Donte Johnson wasn't cleared to fight. Reese is coming off a no contest where he landed a low blow on Sedriques Dumas and Dumas was unable to continue. Prior to that, he won a close unanimous decision over Dusko Todorovic. He's 3-2 in the UFC now with two wins by decision and one by knockout. He's been knocked out in both his losses. McVey had an unsuccessful UFC debut losing by first round submission via armbar to Brunno Ferreira. He's 6-1 with six first round finishes. Between Reese and McVey, sixteen of their eighteen fights have ended in the first round. I'm expecting this one to end in the first round as well with Reese getting the first round knockout over McVey.

PREDICTION: Zachary Reese by 1st RD KO/TKO

UFC VEGAS 111 VIP TICKET

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 8TH

MAIN CARD:

Randy Brown +140 (0.5u)

Brown DEC +450 (0.2u)

Joseph Morales ITD -130 (1.3u)

Uros Medic -150 (0.75u)

Marco Tulio -170 (0.85u)

PRELIMS:

Hyder Amil -140 (1.05u)

Raoni Barcelos +150 (0.5u)

Barcelos DEC +275 (0.2u)

Denise Gomes -170 (0.85u)

Josh Hokit KO/TKO -135 (1.35u)

Miles Johns +160 (0.5u)

Johns DEC +225 (0.2u)

Zachary Reese/Jackson McVey under 1.5 -220 (1.1u)