UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett Saturday 1/24

It's the beginning of UFC on Paramount + era and we are kicking off with a very good card from top to bottom. We lost a second title fight with Kayla Harrison's injury, but the card is still loaded with plenty of betting opportunities.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 112): -1.85u

2025 YTD: -29.29u

Paddy Pimblett (-245) vs. Justin Gaethje (+200):

In the main event, Paddy Pimblett and Justin Gaethje will meet for the UFC interim lightweight championship as current champion Ilia Topuria deals with a messy divorce. Pimblett has gone 7-0 in the UFC and is coming off a third round finish of Michael Chandler. Gaethje has won three of his last four with two of those wins coming over Rafael Fiziev. This is going to be the toughest test of Pimblett's career as Gaethje is a strong wrestler and volume striker with great cardio. As much as he dishes out damage, he takes just as much in return so Pimblett hurting him in an exchange wouldn't be surprising at this point. It's in the grappling where Pimblett has a significant edge. Gaethje doesn't get taken down often, but he looked pretty clueless on the ground years ago against Khabib Nurmagomedov. Takedowns won't come easy for Pimblett, but I do see him being able to get this fight to the mat and from there he'll eventually lock in a submission.

PREDICTION: Paddy Pimblett by 2nd RD SUB

Sean O’Malley (-220) vs. Song Yadong (+180):

In the co-main event, former UFC bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley is looking to get back in the win column as he faces Song Yadong. O'Malley lost his title to Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision and then was submitted in the third round in their rematch. Yadong is coming off a three round technical decision victory over Henry Cejudo and has won three of his last four. We have a fun striking battle here, but one that I'm pretty confident in O'Malley winning. O'Malley is a fantastic striker with tremendous volume and cardio. Yadong is a solid striker himself, but he's just not as good as O'Malley. Give me O'Malley by decision.

PREDICTION: Sean O’Malley by DEC

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-345) vs. Derrick Lewis (+275):

Waldo Cortes-Acosta has been a busy man since joining the UFC especially in 2025 where he went 4-1 with his last two wins coming just three weeks apart, both by first round knockout. He'll face Derrick Lewis who has won three of his last four, all by knockout. Most recently, he stopped Tallison Teixeira in just 35 seconds in a controversial finish. Lewis always has a puncher's chance, but Cortes-Acosta is going to be slick for him. It's just a matter of whether Cortes-Acosta is content to pump the jab and play the outside game or go for the kill. I'm leaning towards Cortes-Acosta to win by decision.

PREDICTION: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by DEC

Natalia Silva (-310) vs. Rose Namajunas (+250):

Natalia Silva is stepping in for Alexa Grasso to face Rose Namajunas in what should determine the next challenger for the UFC's women's flyweight title. Silva has gone 7-0 since joining the UFC and coming off a unanimous decision win over former flyweight champion Alexa Grasso. Namajunas has won three of her last four, most recently defeating Miranda Maverick by unanimous decision. This line is a bit wide for my liking, but I do like Silva here. She has strong takedown defense and is a higher volume striker than Namajunas. Silva by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Natalia Silva by DEC

Jean Silva (-245) vs. Arnold Allen (+200):

Kicking off the main card is a featherweight bout between Jean Silva and Arnold Allen. Silva had won his first five fights in the UFC, all by stoppage, but was knocked out by Diego Lopes in the second round in his latest fight. Allen is coming off a unanimous decision win over Giga Chikadze, but that fight was in in July of 2024. Allen had lost back to back unanimous decisions to Max Holloway and Movsar Evloev after winning his first ten fights in the UFC. Silva isn't as good as some have made him out to be, but I do like him here over Allen. Silva isn't the biggest volume striker, but neither is Allen. However, Silva is more aggressive and he does pack more power. Allen is durable so I see Silva taking this one by decision.

PREDICTION: Jean Silva by DEC

Umar Nurmagomedov (-1600) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+900):

Umar Nurmagomedov came up short in his attempt to win the UFC bantamweight title against Merab Dvalishvili, but bounced back with a unanimous decision win over Mario Bautista. He's won seven of eight since joining the UFC. He'll face Deiveson Figueiredo who is coming off a split decision victory over Montel Jackson. Prior to that, Figueiredo lost back to back fights to Petr Yan and Cory Sandhagen. The former UFC flyweight champion is 4-2 since moving up to bantamweight, but he did miss weight for this bout. Figueiredo just doesn't do enough so he needs to rely on big moments and against Nurmagomedov, I don't think they ae coming. Nurmagomedov is a better striker and wrestler and I see him winning by decision.

PREDICTION: Umar Nurmagomedov by DEC

Ateba Gautier (-1000) vs. Andrey Pulyaev (+650):

Ateba Gautier has won three straight, all by first round knockout, since joining the UFC. He'll look to pick up another quick finish as he takes on Andrey Pulyaev who picked up his first UFC win with a second round finish of Nick Klein. Gautier is an exciting middleweight prospect and the UFC is building him slowly and matching him up with Pulyaev is proper matchmaking. He's better than Gautier's previous opponents, but I do see Gautier picking up another first round knockout as Pulyaev just won't be able to handle the power.

PREDICTION: Ateba Gautier by 1st RD KO/TKO

Modestas Bukauskas (-140) vs. Nikita Krylov (+120):

Since returning to the UFC, Modestas Bukauskas has won six of seven. He's won four straight with three coming by stoppage. He'll face Nikita Krylov who has lost two straight, both by first round knockout. I don't think Bukauskas is any good and Krylov would be earning the same results against these opponents, but Krylov has not looked good in these last two fights and now durability is a concern. A few years ago, this was an easy Krylov pick, but based on their current forms I have to go with Bukauskas to catch Krylov with something.

PREDICTION: Modestas Bukauskas by 1st RD KO/TKO

Charles Johnson (-180) vs. Alex Perez (+150):

After suffering three straight losses, Charles Johnson has won five of his last six and is coming off a second round knockout of Lone'er Kavanagh. He'll take on Alex Perez who has now lost five of his last six. However, all of those losses have come to former champions or top ten flyweights. Johnson will have a three inch height and five inch reach advantage over Perez. Perez has a wrestling advantage and that's been Johnson's biggest weakness. I really do like Perez's skillset, but he's just impossible to back anymore and he missed weight. Perez will probably come out strong early, but like always let a winnable fight slip from his grasp as Johnson gains momentum late.

PREDICTION: Charles Johnson by DEC

Alexander Hernandez (-110) vs. Michael Johnson (-110):

Since a stretch where he lost four out of five, Alexander Hernandez has now won four straight with back to back knockouts of Diego Ferreira and Chase Hooper. He'll face Michael Johnson who has won three straight and coming off a big upset of Daniel Zellhuber. I hate backing Hernandez as a favorite, but he's looked good lately and Johnson isn't a heavy pressure fighter that could break Hernandez like others have. However, there's been interesting line movement in favor of Johnson today which calls into question if Hernandez has an injury or something. Johnson is definitely at the tail end of his career, but his boxing still looks sharp. I'm going to go ahead and pick Johnson, but I missed the best price so I'll likely just sit this one out.

PREDICTION: Michael Johnson by DEC

Josh Hokit (-250) vs. Denzel Freeman (+205):

Josh Hokit has made quite the impression since his appearance on the Contender Series with his schtick being a cross between Chael Sonnen and Colby Covington. Some love it, some hate it, but the fact of the matter is Hokit is an intriguing undefeated heavyweight prospect at 7-0 with seven finishes, five in the first round. He'll take on Denzel Freeman who had a successful, but pretty lackluster UFC debut. He's a former LFA heavyweight champ and spent some time in WWE as well. These guys are both athletic heavyweights with Freeman's aforementioned WWE background, while Hokit played college football and was also signed by the San Francisco 49ers to play fullback. Freeman is a Greco-Roman style wrestler, while Hokit comes from a freestyle background. I'm expecting Hokit to be more aggressive with pursuing takedowns, but this is going to be the best wrestler he has faced so this may come down to who is the better striker. Freeman is the better technical striker, but he was just too passive in his UFC debut for me to pick him here. I'll go with Hokit by decision based on more aggression and activity.

PREDICTION: Josh Hokit by DEC

Ty Miller (-575) vs. Adam Fugitt (+425):

Kicking off the Paramount + era is a welterweight bout between Ty Miller and Adam Fugitt. Miller is undefeated at 6-0 after picking up a win over Jimmy Drago by unanimous decision on the Contender Series. Four of Miller's six wins have come by decision with the other two by knockout. Fugitt is coming off a first round knockout loss to Islam Dulatov and has lost two of his last three. He's 2-3 in the UFC and been finished in all three losses. Fugitt is a good test for a young prospect like Miller, but ultimately I believe Miller passes the test. Fugitt is scrappy and may score a takedown or two, but Miller is good at scrambling to his feet and he throws a ton of volume. Fugitt has durability concerns and I see Miller just overwhelming him with volume that leads to the finish.

PREDICTION: Ty Miller by 2nd RD KO/TKO

UFC 324 VIP TICKET

SATURDAY JANUARY 24TH

MAIN CARD:

Paddy Pimblett ITD -140 (1.05u)

Sean O'Malley & Ateba Gautier/Andrey Pulyaev under 1.5 rounds +110 (1.5u)

Jean Silva/Arnold Allen over 2.5 rounds -130 (1.3u)

PRELIMS:

Umar Nurmagomedov/Deiveson Figueiredo over 2.5 rounds -165 (1.65u)

Modestas Bukauskas -140 (0.7u)

Charles Johnson -180 (1.35u)

Alexander Hernandez/Michael Johnson over 2.5 rounds -125 (1.25u)

Johnson DEC +300 (0.25u)

Josh Hokit/Denzel Freeman over 1.5 rounds -180 (1.35u)

Hokit DEC +250 (0.3u)

Ty Miller ITD -140 (1.05u)