UFC Qatar: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker Saturday 11/22

It's an early start tomorrow at the UFC heads to Qatar for the first time. Fights start at 7am PT/10am ET so get those bets in early!

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 322): +0.95u

2025 YTD: -22.09u

Arman Tsarukyan (-750) vs. Dan Hooker (+525):

In the main event, Arman Tsarukyan takes on Dan Hooker in a five round lightweight bout. This will be Tsarukyan's first fight since a back injury forced him out of a UFC lightweight title fight against then champion Islam Makhachev. Tsarukyan has won four straight, most recently defeating Charles Oliveira by split decision. Hooker has won three straight, coming off back to back split decisions over Mateusz Gamrot and Jalin Turner. Hooker hasn't fought since his August 2024 win over Gamrot. He was supposed to fight Justin Gaethje in March, but he suffered a hand injury. I'm pretty confident in Tsarukyan here because he's such a strong wrestler combined with Hooker's poor defensive wrestling. Hooker is dangerous on the feet, but I think he's going to spend a lot of time on his back. Tsarukyan should dominate with wrestling over five rounds and possibly finish Hooker later in the fight.

PREDICTION: Arman Tsarukyan by DEC

Ian Machado Garry (-285) vs. Belal Muhammad (+230):

In the co-main event, Ian Machado Garry faces former UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad in a key welterweight bout. Garry is coming off a five round unanimous decision win over Carlos Prates and is now 9-1 in the UFC. This will be Muhammad's first fight since losing the welterweight title to Jack Della Maddalena. Prior to that, Muhammad had won ten straight fights. Muhammad's performance against Della Maddalena was very puzzling as he chose to strike with a better striker and refused to push his wrestling advantage until it was too late in the fight. I expect him to try and wrestle more this fight, but Garry has much better takedown defense than Della Maddalena and Garry is a better striker than Muhammad. I've got Garry winning by decision and putting himself firmly in number one contender discussions.

PREDICTION: Ian Garry by DEC

Volkan Oezdemir (-240) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+195):

Volkan Oezdemir is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg after picking up two straight first round finishes over Johnny Walker and Bogdan Guskov. He'll take on Alonzo Menifield who is coming off two straight decision wins, unanimous over Oumar Sy and split over Julius Walker. I've said it before and I'll say it again, I don't think Menifield is very good at all. He's powerful and athletic, but that's it. Oezdemir is a more skilled striker than Menifield, he just has to avoid brawling because Menifield has the power to hurt him. Oezdemir is a better volume striker so if this goes three rounds, he should get the nod if he doesn't just knock Menifield out.

PREDICTION: Volkan Oezdemir by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Myktybek Orolbai (-205) vs. Jack Hermansson (+170):

This next fight is interesting as Myktybek Orolbai will be taking on Jack Hermansson who will be dropping to welterweight for this bout. Orolbai is 3-1 since joining the UFC, but really struggled to make the lightweight limit in his last two fights. He missed weight against Mateusz Rebecki in a split decision loss and then his fight with Tofiq Musayev was a 165 pound catchweight bout where he won by first round submission via kimura. Hermansson is coming off a first round knockout loss to Gregory Rodrigues and has alternated wins and losses in his last ten fights. The knockout loss to Rodrigues is a bit concerning as Orolbai likes to pressure and throw bombs, but if Hermansson can weather the storm, he's the much better fighter. He has good striking, especially his jab and nasty ground and pound when he takes opponents down. Give me the underdog in Hermansson.

PREDICTION: Jack Hermansson by DEC

Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-140) vs. Shamil Gaziev (+120):

This was supposed to be Shamil Gaziev versus Serghei Spivac, but Spivac pulled out so in steps Waldo Cortes-Acosta on just a few days notice. Cortes-Acosta just fought three weeks ago, knocking out Ante Delija in the first round in a controversial fight. Cortes-Acosta is 8-2 in the UFC with three wins by knockout. Gaziev has gone 3-1 in the UFC, most recently knocking out Thomas Petersen in the first round in February. Cortes-Acosta has strong boxing skills and pretty good takedown defense. Gaziev comes from a wrestling background, but I don't think he's that strong of a wrestler and don't trust him in extended fights. Cortes-Acosta is quicker and a better striker and believe he will shut down Gaziev's wrestling. Cortes-Acosta will be the more active striker and should start to pull away from Gaziev the longer the fight goes.

PREDICTION: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by DEC

Tagir Ulanbekov (-230) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (+190):

Tagir Ulanbekov has won four straight and six of seven since joining the UFC. He's coming off a unanimous decision win over Azat Maksum. He'll face Kyoji Horiguchi who returns to the UFC after nine years. Horiguchi competed in the UFC from 2013-2016 going 7-1, losing only to then UFC flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson. Both of these guys are well rounded fighters with Ulanbekov having a slight wrestling and grappling edge, while Horiguchi is the better striker in my opinion. Ulanbekov may score a few takedowns, but I don't think he'll hold Horiguchi down. I expect the majority of this fight to be a striking match and I prefer the variety of strikes that Horiguchi will throw to earn him a close decision win.

PREDICTION: Kyoji Horiguchi by DEC

Luke Riley (-260) vs. Bogdan Grad (+210):

Luke Riley will be making his long anticipated UFC debut as he takes on Bogdan Grad. Riley is undefeated at 11-0 with eight wins by knockout and three by decision. Grad is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Muhammad Naimov after finishing Lucas Alexander in the second round with strikes in his UFC debut. This is going to be a fun fight as both Riley and Grad like to force the action. Riley is the faster and more technical striker, but Grad may pack more power. Grad will look to wrestle, but I think he'll have trouble holding Riley down. Eventually, I see Riley wearing Grad down and finishing him.

PREDICTION: Luke Riley by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Saygid Izagakhmaev (-355) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+280):

Saygid Izagakhmaev is another prospect making his UFC debut coming out of the Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev camp. Izagakhmaev is 22-2 with sixteen wins inside the distance, twelve by submission. He hasn't fought in three years after dealing with contractual issues with ONE FC. He'll face Nicolas Dalby who is coming off the first stoppage loss of his career to Randy Brown and has now lost two in a row. Striking wise, this should be pretty competitive, but I give a slight edge to the Dalby. On the ground, Izagakhmaev has the edge and while Dalby is hard to hold down, Izagakhmaev seems to have the cardio to hold up and not get drowned by Dalby's pace.

PREDICTION: Saygid Izagakhmaev by DEC

Asu Almabayev (-205) vs. Alex Perez (+170):

Asu Almabayev is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jose Ochoa and has won five of six since joining the UFC. He faces Alex Perez who has lost four of his last five fights. Perez suffered a knee injury in his loss to Tatsuro Taira and then pulled out of a fight with Steve Erceg in August so he hasn't fought in seventeen months. When Perez is healthy, he's probably a top five flyweight, but the problem is he's never healthy. It may cost me here, but I'm going back to the well with Perez who should have the wrestling to stop Almabayev and he's a much more dangerous striker. Give me Perez to use his wrestling in reverse to keep this fight standing and beat up Almabayev on the feet.

PREDICTION: Alex Perez by DEC

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev (-1800) vs. Raffael Cerqueira (+1000):

Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev picked up a quick thirty second win on the Contender Series to improve his undefeated record to 7-0 with six wins inside the distance. Five of his seven wins have come in the first round, but his decision win is a five rounder. He'll take on Raffael Cerqueira who has lost all three fights since joining the UFC. He was knocked out in the first round in his first two fights and most recently lost a unanimous decision to Julius Walker. This is clearly a showcase fight for Yahyaev because Cerqueira is awful. He has no chin and can't wrestle. Yakhyaev either drops Cerqueira early and follows up on the ground or uses his wrestling and grappling to finish the fight. This one probably doesn't make it out of the first round. It definitely doesn't make it out of the second.

PREDICTION: Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev by 1st RD KO/TKO

Aleksandre Topuria (-130) vs. Bekzat Almakhan (+110):

Aleksandre Topuria made his UFC debut earlier this year, earning a unanimous decision win over Colby Thicknesse. Now he'll face Bekzat Almakhan who scored a first round knockout of Brad Katona in just 64 seconds to pick up his first UFC win. Topuria is 6-1 with five wins inside the distance, all in the first round. This is the toughest fight for me to predict on the card as Topuria's win over Thicknesse doesn't look that great considering how awful Thicknesse's striking looked against Josias Musasa, while Almakhan being the first fighter to finish Katona is an impressive feat. I also don't see Topuria dominating with grappling or finishing Almakhan on the ground when Umar Nurmagomedov couldn't. The money has moved towards Topuria, but I think I will fade the public and side with Almakhan.

PREDICTION: Bekzat Almakhan by DEC

Ismail Naurdiev (-130) vs. Ryan Loder (+110):

Ismail Naurdiev is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jun Yong Park and is now 3-3 in the UFC across two different stints. He'll take on Ryan Loder who suffered a first round knockout loss against Azamat Bekoev. Loder won season 32 of "The Ultimate Fighter" finishing Robert Valentin in the second round with ground and pound. Loder has a strong wrestling background, but he isn't much of a threat standing. This fight is going to go one of two ways: either Loder is able to dominate with his wrestling or Naurdiev is going to beat him up on the feet and probably stop him. I'm goong to side with Loder and his wrestling with potential for a late finish if Naurdiev gasses badly.

PREDICTION: Ryan Loder by DEC

Nurullo Aliev (-290) vs. Shem Rock (+235):

Nurullo Aliev picked up a unanimous decision win over Joe Solecki earlier this year to improve his undefeated record to 10-0. He also has a unanimous decision win over Rafael Alves in his UFC debut. Eight of his ten wins have come by decision. He faces Shem Rock who will be making his UFC debut. Rock is 12-1-1 with eleven wins inside the distance, nine by submission. This fight is going to come down to grappling, pitting the sambo of Aliev against the jiu-jitsu of Rock. Rock has a long frame and could threaten Aliev with submissions who doesn't have the best submission defense, but Aliev is going to be the best wrestler he faced. I'll go with Aliev to fight out of some tricky spots, but ultimately grind out Rock for the win.

PREDICTION: Nurullo Aliev by DEC

Denzel Freeman (-225) vs. Marek Bujlo (+185):

Starting off the early prelims is a heavyweight bout between Denzel Freeman and Marek Bujlo, who will both be making their UFC debuts. Freeman is stepping in on short notice, replacing Jose Luiz. Freeman is 6-1 with five wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He was most recently the LFA heavyweight champion. Bujlo is undefeated at 6-0 with all six wins coming in the first round. Freeman has a strong wrestling background, competing at the college level and trying out for the Olympics. He also spent time in WWE before pursuing MMA so he's a legit athlete. Buljo is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt so his grappling is his strength, but his competition has been awful. His striking skills are unknown, but I'm going to assume Freeman is the more comfortable striker. I'm going to side with Freeman because he should be the better wrestler and be able to decide where this fight takes place. I'd imagine Buljo's cardio isn't great so there's another advantage Freeman has training at elevation in Colorado. Freeman picks up a stoppage via strikes inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Denzel Freeman by 1st RD KO/

UFC QATAR TICKET

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22ND

MAIN CARD:

Arman Tsarukyan/Ian Garry -190 (1.9u)

Jack Hermansson +170 (0.5u)

Hermansson DEC +330 (0.2u)

Hermansson RD3 +2500 (0.1u)

Waldo Cortes-Acosta -130 (0.65u)

Kyoji Horiguchi +190 (0.5u)

PRELIMS:

Luke Riley ITD +120 (0.5u)

Saygid Izagakhmaev DEC +150 (0.5u)

Alex Perez +170 (0.5u)

Perez DEC +400 (0.25u)

Bekzat Almakhan/Aleksandre Topuria over 2.5 rounds -115 (1.15u)

Almakhan +110 (0.5u)

Almakhan DEC +450 (0.2u)

Ryan Loder +110 (0.5u)

Loder DEC +350 (0.2u)

Loder RD3 +1400 (0.1u)

Nurullo Aliev/Saygid Izagakhmaev -140 (1.4u)

Aliev DEC -120 (0.9u)

Denzel Freeman/Marek Buljo under 1.5 rounds -150 (0.75u)

Freeman ITD -140 (1.05u)