UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 Saturday 12/6

This card is absolutely stacked as it is the last PPV of the ESPN+ era as the UFC moves to Paramount Plus in 2026 and does away with the PPV model. Hallelujah!

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Qatar):

2025 YTD: -

Merab Dvalishvili (-425) vs. Petr Yan (+330):

In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili defends his UFC bantamweight title for the fourth time as he faces Petr Yan.  These two first met in March 2023 with Dvalishvili winning a dominant five round unanimous decision.  Dvalishvili has won fourteen straight after losing his first two fights in the UFC.  Yan has won three straight since the loss to Dvalishvili, most recently defeating Marcus McGhee by unanimous decision. In their first encounter, Dvalishvili came in around a +200 underdog and just overwhelmed Yan with pressure like he does to every opponent. He attempted 49 takedowns, securing 11 but wasn't able to hold Yan down. Instead, he was just able to control the clinch and throw 401 strikes compared to Yan's 143. Yan is the more technical striker, but if Dvalishvili gives him no room to breathe this one should look exactly like the first.

PREDICTION: Merab Dvalishvili by DEC

Alexandre Pantoja (-240) vs. Joshua Van (+200):

In the co-main event, UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja puts his title on the line against number one contender Joshua Van.  Pantoja has successfully defended his title four times, most recently submitting Kai Kara-France in the third round.  Van has won five straight and eight of nine since joining the UFC.  He’s coming off a unanimous decision win over Brandon Royval.  Van’s grappling will be put to the test here as Pantoja is the far superior grappler.  It wouldn’t shock me if Pantoja ran right through Van on the ground and submitted him, but I think Van’s grappling defense is going to hold up and force this into a striking battle.  Pantoja is a capable striker, but Van brings such a high pace and Pantoja’s cardio can be an issue at times.  Van also loves to work the body which will only add to Pantoja’s cardio issues and as the fight goes on, Van will continue to get stronger and I see him pulling off the upset and becoming the new UFC flyweight champion.

PREDICTION:  Joshua Van by DEC

Tatsuro Taira (-120) vs. Brandon Moreno (+100):

Tatsuro Taira bounced back from his first loss, a split decision to Brandon Royval, with a second round submission via face crank over Hyun Sung Park.  He’s now 7-1 in the UFC and 17-1 overall. He’ll face Brandon Moreno who has back to back five round unanimous decisions over Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi after losing two straight split decisions against Roval and Alexandre Pantoja.  Taira proved he’s a legit contender in the flyweight division and now he'll look to pick up a win over a former champ in Moreno.  Taira’s striking is serviceable, but he does his best work as a grappler and he’ll need to have wrestling success to beat Moreno who is the superior striker.  I’ll go with Moreno to avoid extended grappling exchanges and easily winning the striking battle.

PREDICTION:  Brandon Moreno by DEC

Payton Talbott (-250) vs. Henry Cejudo (+205):

Payton Talbott is coming off a unanimous decision win over Felipe Lima after suffering his first loss against Raoni Barcelos as a massive favorite.  Barcelos is now 4-1 in the UFC and 10-1 overall.  He’ll take on Henry Cejudo in what will be the former UFC flyweight and bantamweight champion’s retirement fight.  Cejudo has gone 0-3 since returning from his first retirement in 2023.  Talbott is going to have a six inch height advantage and two to three inch reach advantage over Cejudo.  Talbott is the more dangerous striker, while Cejudo is obviously the better wrestler being a former Olympic gold medalist.  Cejudo should be able to score a few takedowns, but he isn’t the positional grappler that Barcelos is and likely can’t hold Talbott down for long.  In this day and age of MMA judging, Talbott’s more impressive work striking should get him the nod.

PREDICTION:  Payton Talbott by DEC

Jan Blachowicz (-120) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+100):

Opening up the main card is a light heavyweight bout between former champion Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov.  Since winning the title, Blachowicz has gone 1-2-1 and has dropped two straight decisions to Carlos Ulberg and Alex Pereira.  Guskov has won four straight, all by finish, since getting submitted in his UFC debut by Volkan Oezdemir.  Guskov definitely has power and Blachowicz is 42 years old now, but he still looks like he can compete a high level and his durability seems just fine after facing dangerous strikers like Ulberg and Pereira.  Both Blachowicz and Guskov are low volume, but Blachowicz is more technically sound and has wrestling upside to fall back on if he doesn’t like what’s coming his way from Guskov.

PREDICTION:  Jan Blachowicz by DEC

Grant Dawson (-250) vs. Manuel Torres (+205):

In the featured prelim, Grant Dawson faces Manuel Torres in a lightweight bout.  Dawson has won three straight and is now 11-1-1 in the UFC.  Torres is 4-1 in the UFC with all of his fights ending in the first round.  In fact, only one of his nineteen career fights has made it past the first round.  This fight is going to go one of two ways: either Torres is going to knock Dawson out early or Dawson is going to dominate the fight through his grappling.  Dawson’s knockout loss to King Green makes me nervous because Torres is a big hitter, but Dawson is such a good wrestler and grappler.  It won’t shock me if Torres clips Dawson early and finishes him, but I have to go with Dawson here and I think he gets a finish.

PREDICTION:  Grant Dawson by 2^nd RD SUB

Chris Duncan (-120) vs. Terrance McKinney (+100):

This one has fireworks written all over it as Chris Duncan takes on Terrance McKinney in a lightweight battle.  Duncan has won five of six since joining the UFC and is coming off a three round war with Mateusz Rebecki where he emerged victorious by unanimous decision.  McKinney has gone 7-4 in the UFC with nine of those fights ending in the first round.  McKinney is a kill or be killed fighter as evidenced by all the early finishes throughout his career.  He's an aggressive striker and grappler, but he only has about five minutes of cardio.  I would not be surprised if he can hurt and overwhelm Duncan early, but if he can’t find that quick finish, Duncan has the superior cardio and it’s only a matter of time before McKinney wilts.

PREDICTION:  Chris Duncan by 2^nd RD KO/TKO

Maycee Barber (-205) vs. Karine Silva (+170):

Maycee Barber has not fought since March of 2024 after pulling out of a fight with Rose Namajunas in July of 2024 and then being able to compete just minutes before she was supposed to against Erin Blanchfield in a five round main event in May.  Prior to that, she had won six straight, but her split decision wins over Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee are very debatable.  She’ll take on Karine Silva who is coming off a unanimous decision of Dione Barbosa.  Silva has won five of six since joining the UFC with her first three wins coming by first round submission.  Barber is the better striker here with better cardio, while Silva is the better submission grappler, but isn’t a great wrestler.  Barber’s defensive wrestling isn’t great so maybe Silva could have some success, but I trust Barber to stay out of danger on the ground.  As the fight drags on, Barber should be able to use her pace and cardio while matching Silva’s physicality to swing the fight in her favor.  Barber should pull away for a decision, but wouldn’t be surprised if she picked up a late finish on a tiring Silva.

PREDICTION:  Maycee Barber by DEC

Fares Ziam (-160) vs. Nazim Sadykhov (+135):

Fares Ziam has won five straight and is now 7-2 overall in the UFC.  He’ll face Nazim Sadykhov who is coming off a second round knockout of Nikolas Motta that earned him “Fight of the Night” honors.  Sadykhov is 4-0-1 since joining the UFC, but he won two fights on doctor stoppages.  He was clearly down two rounds to Evan Elder and was losing the first round until a head kick opened a cut on Ismael Bonfim.  Ziam will have a three inch height and six inch reach advantage over Sadykhov.  I was not a big fan of Ziam early on in his career, but he's grown on me.  He’s a low volume striker with questionable defensive wrestling, but he does what he needs to do to win and his performance against Matt Frevola was impressive.  Sadykhov is a more powerful and aggressive striker, but Ziam is much better defensively and his reach advantage should make a difference.

PREDICTION:  Fares Ziam by DEC

Marvin Vettori (-120) vs. Brunno Ferreira (+100):

Marvin Vettori was once a top middleweight contender, but has now lost three straight and five of his last seven.  He’ll take on Brunno Ferreira who has won two straight, both by submission via armbar and is now 5-2 in the UFC.  In fourteen career fights, Ferreira has never been to a decision and the third round just once.  Vettori has edges in durability and volume, but Ferreira has more power and is clearly a dangerous finisher.  My problem with Ferreira is he’s probably better suited for welterweight and I don’t trust him in extended fights.  Unless he can really hurt Vettori, Vettori is going to drown him in volume and if he mixes in takedowns, I think he can finish Ferreira late.

PREDICTION:  Marvin Vettori by DEC

Jalin Turner (-380) vs. Edson Barboza (+300):

It was a short lived retirement for Jalin Turner who laid down the gloves after a first round submission loss to Ignacio Bahamondes in March of this year.  It was his fourth loss in his last five fights and now he returns to face longtime UFC veteran Edson Barboza, who has lost two straight and four of his last six.  Barboza is almost 40 years old and this will be his 32^nd fight in the Octagon so retirement has to be on the horizon.  Turner is going to have a four inch height and two inch reach advantage over Barboza as well as youth on his side.  Barboza’s durability has been better lately, but I worry those issues will show up again against a dangerous first round fighter like Turner.  However, Turner has issues the longer fights go so Barboza is live if this gets into the second and third rounds.  I think Turner is going to come out hot and get Barboza out of there in the first round.

PREDICTION:  Jalin Turner by 1^st RD KO/TKO

Iwo Baraniewski (-200) vs. Ibo Aslan (+165):

Iwo Baraniewski punched his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series with a knockout of Mahamed Aly just twenty seconds into the first round as a +250 underdog.  He’s now 6-0 with all six wins in the first round, four by knockout.  He’ll take on Ibo Aslan who is coming off a god awful unanimous decision loss to Billy Elekana and has lost two straight after winning his first two UFC fights by knockout.  Prior to the Elekana fight, Aslan had never went to a decision with thirteen of his seventeen career fights ending in the first round.  Aslan obviously has power, but he has no ground game while Baraniewski clearly does.  Baraniewski is a judo black belt and I expect him to land an early takedown and immediately go to work on the ground.  He could win by ground and pound stoppage, but I see Aslan giving up his neck for the rear naked choke.

PREDICTION: Iwo Baraniewski by 1^st  RD SUB

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-1450) vs. Antonio Trocoli (+750):

Mansur Abdul-Malik is an undefeated middleweight prospect with a record of 8-0-1 now after his decision win over Cody Brundage was overturned to a no contest.  Abdul-Malik had won his first eight fights by stoppage, six in the first round.  He’s a massive -1450 favorite here as he faces Antonio Trocoli who has lost both his fights in the UFC, most recently getting submitted via standing guillotine choke in just 1:23 by Tresean Gore.  Abdul-Malik has a ton of potential, but his last two performances have been frustrating.  He hardly threw any strikes against Brundage and didn’t wrestle either.  You can honestly make the argument that he was down two rounds to Brundage.  Trocoli is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he isn’t much of a threat as a striker and he’s not going to out wrestle Abdul-Malik.  I’m expecting another tepid start from Abdul-Malik, but think he’ll eventually find a finish in the second round.

PREDICTION:  Mansur Abdul-Malik by 2^nd RD KO/TKO

Mairon Santos (-240) vs. Muhammad Naimov (+195):

Kicking off the early prelims is a featherweight bout between Mairon Santos and Muhammad Naimov.  Santos is 3-0 in the UFC and coming off a unanimous decision win over Sodiq Yusuff at lightweight.  Naimov is 5-1 in the UFC and has won two straight unanimous decisions over Bogdan Grad and Kaan Ofli.  Naimov is your typical wrestle-boxer, while Santos is mostly a striker.  Naimov has power, but Santos is the more technical striker and should have the takedown defense to hold Naimov off and win a hard fought decision.

PREDICTION:  Mairon Santos by DEC

UFC 323 TICKET

SATURDAY DECEMBER 6TH

MAIN CARD:

Merab Dvalishvili/Iwo Baraniewski -120 (1.8u)

Joshua Van +200 (0.5u)

Van DEC +400 (0.25u)

Van RD4 +2500 (0.1u)

Van RD5 +2800 (0.1u)

Brandon Moreno +100 (0.75u)

Payton Talbott DEC +100 (0.75u)

Jan Blachowicz -120 (0.6u)

PRELIMS:

Grant Dawson ITD -110 (0.55u)

Chris Duncan -120 (0.6u)

Duncan KO/TKO +200 (0.25u)

Maycee Barber DEC -110 (0.55u)

Barber RD3 +1800 (0.1u)

Fares Ziam DEC +110 (0.5u)

Marvin Vettori -120 (0.9u)

Vettori RD3 +1800 (0.1u)

Iwo Baraniewski ITD -140 (1.05u)

Baraniewski SUB +500 (0.2u)

Mairon Santos DEC -110 (0.55u)