UFC Vegas 109: Dolidze vs. Hernandez Saturday 8/9

For the second week in a row, the UFC is back in the APEX and this card is chock full of big favorites.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 108) +0.35u

2025 YTD: -15.38u

Anthony Hernandez (-345) vs. Roman Dolidze (+275):

In the main event, Anthony Hernandez takes on Roman Dolidze in a five round middleweight bout. Hernandez is coming off a unanimous decision over Brendan Allen. This is his second five round main event. In his first one, he finished Michel Pereira with ground and pound in the fifth round. This will be Dolidze's third main event. He's coming off a unanimous decision win over Marvin Vettori after losing a majority decision to Nassourdine Imavov in his first main event. Hernandez has won seven in a row, while Dolidze has won three straight. I'm always excited to watch Hernandez fight because he's such a relentless grappler and now he'll be facing a talented and dangerous submission grappler in Dolidze. As far as the striking goes, the edge has to go Dolidze because Hernandez does not have great striking and he gets hurt easily, especially to the body. The cardio edge goes to Hernandez even though Dolidze did show good cardio over five rounds in his win over Vettori. However, that fight was all striking and Dolidze is going to have to defend a ton of takedown attempts from Hernandez. Unless Dolidze hurts Hernandez early or snatches up a leg lock, Hernandez is going to put a pace on him that he can't handle. Hernandez wins this one by decision or gets a stoppage in the fourth or fifth round.

PREDICTION: Anthony Hernandez by DEC

Steve Erceg (-575) vs. Ode Osbourne (+425):

In the co-main event, Steve Erceg faces Ode Osbourne in a bantamweight bout because of the short notice for Osbourne. Erceg was supposed to face Alex Perez, but he got injured. Then it was Hyun Sung Park, but Park was rebooked to fight Tatsuro Taira last week. Erceg has lost three in a row, but those losses have been to elite flyweights. He's coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Brandon Moreno. Prior to that, he got knocked out in the first round by Kai-Kara France and lost an extremely close unanimous decision to UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja. Osbourne is coming off a second round knockout of Luis Gurule that snapped a three fight losing skid. Erceg is a bit too big of a favorite for my liking, but he should get the job done here. Osbourne obviously has a puncher's chance, but Erceg also packs power on the feet and is the much better grappler. Erceg eventually finds a finish in this one.

PREDICTION: Steve Erceg by 2nd RD SUB

Iasmin Lucindo (-205) vs. Angela Hill (+170):

Iasmin Lucindo had won four straight, but a unanimous decision loss to Amanda Lemos snapped that winning streak. She'll meet Angela Hill who is coming off a split decision win over Ketlen Souza and has won three of her last four. This is a battle of the young prospect in Lucindo versus the grizzled veteran in Hill and I'm going with the veteran in Hill. Hill is the more experienced striker and her takedown defense should be good enough against Lucindo's takedowns. Hill also has sneaky wrestling upside and Lucindo looked clueless on her back against Lemos. Hill is always in razor close decisions that don't go her way about as often as they do, but I got her edging this one out.

PREDICTION: Angela Hill by DEC

Christian Rodriguez (-245) vs. Andre Fili (+200):

Christian Rodriguez is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Melquizael Costa and has lost two of his last three. He'll face Andre Fili who is also coming off a first round submission via guillotine choke to Costa. Fili is 3-4 in his last seven fights and hasn't strung together consecutive wins since 2019. While being a prospect himself, Rodriguez has made a career out of being a prospect killer handing the likes of Raul Rosas Jr, Isaac Dulgarian and Austin Bashi their first pro losses. Now he faces a veteran in Fili who is on the downside of his career. Rodriguez isn't elite in any areas, but he can strike, wrestle and has great cardio. He's not easy to hold down and builds as the fight goes on. Fili is a solid striker and a good wrestler, but I expect Rodriguez to neutralize and frustrate Fili like he has to other opponents on his way to a decision win.

PREDICTION: Christian Rodriguez by DEC

Jean Matsumoto (-260) vs. Miles Johns (+210):

Jean Matsumoto is coming off the first loss of his career, a split decision to Rob Font. Matsumoto is 16-1 with nine wins inside the distance. He'll take on Miles Johns who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Felipe Lima. Prior to that, Johns had unofficially won four straight. Matsumoto is an exciting prospect. He's an aggressive striker, but he's there to be hit as well. His cardio is strong, but his defensive wrestling is a bit concerning. Johns is your classic wrestle-boxer, but he's a low volume striker. Johns has the wrestling edge, but I don't think he'll have much success and he is going to be able to match the volume of Matsumoto. Matsumoto by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Jean Matsumoto by DEC

Christian Leroy Duncan (-520) vs. Eryk Anders (+390):

Christian Leroy Duncan is coming off a unanimous decision win Andrey Pulyaev and has won three of his last four. He'll face Eryk Anders who is coming off a second round ground and pound finish of Chris Weidman and has also won three of his last four. I thought about picking Anders to grind out an ugly decision here, but after looking more into it, he's going to struggle with the speed and technical striking of Duncan and his durability is a concern after being knocked down by Weidman, Jamie Pickett and Marc-Andre Barriault in his last three fights. Duncan by decision is the pick, but with the way Anders' durability is heading, I would not be surprised if Duncan landed a killshot.

PREDICTION: Christian Leroy Duncan by DEC

Julius Walker (-700) vs. Rafael Cerqueira (+500):

Julius Walker made his UFC debut earlier this year and lost a split decision to Alonzo Menifield. It was the first loss of his career. He's now 6-1 with all six wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He'll take on Rafael Cerqueira who has been knocked out in the first round in his first two UFC fights. Walker faced weak competition prior to making it to the UFC and struggled with Menifield when he wasn't able to blow right through him. However, Menifield is a ranked middleweight and a very tough opponent for a UFC debut. Cerqueira on the other hand is the perfect opponent, but this line is ridiculous. Cerqueira has serious defensive striking issues, but Walker is still very unproven. I'm picking Walker to win by first round knockout because until Cerqueira shows some better defense on the feet, he's going to continue to get bombed on and hurt.

PREDICTION: Julius Walker by 1st RD KO/TKO

Elijah Smith (-800) vs. Toshiomi Kazama (+550):

Elijah Smith won his UFC debut in a hard fought split decision win over Vince Morales. He's now 8-1 with five wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He'll face who is coming off a first round submission via triangle choke over Charalampos Grigoriou. He was knocked out in his first two fights in the UFC before that and was hurt by Grigoriou, but Grigoriou gassed himself out hunting for the finish right into a triangle choke. Smith is going to have all the advantages early in striking and wrestling, but his cardio is suspect and Kazama is a dangerous submission grappler when he isn't being knocked out. Smith should be able to find Kazama's chin early and put him away, but if this fight gets extended I didn't like the chokes that Smith was getting caught in against Morales.

PREDICTION: Elijah Smith by 1st RD KO/TKO

Joselyn Edwards (-395) vs. Priscila Cachoeira (+310):

Joselyn Edwards was originally supposed to fight Mayra Bueno Silva here, but she's getting a much easier fight in Priscila Cachoeira. Edwards is coming off a first round knockout of Chelsea Chandler and a third round submission over Tamires Vidal. Cachoeira is coming off a first round knockout of Josiane Nunes. She's now 5-6 in the UFC with four of those wins by knockout. Both of these have struggled to make weight through their careers, but Edwards is struggling to make 135 pounds while Cachoeira was struggling to make 125 pounds. Edwards is the naturally bigger and stronger fighter that has the wrestling game to give Cachoeira fits. I expect Edwards to have very little resistance in scoring takedowns and either grinds out a decision or eventually stops Cachoeira late in the fight with ground strikes.

PREDICTION: Joselyn Edwards by DEC

Uros Medic (-340) vs. Gilbert Urbina (+270):

Uros Medic is coming off a 31 second first round knockout loss to Punahele Soriano and has lost two of his last three. All seven of his fights in the UFC have ended inside the distance. He'll face Gilbert Urbina who has lost two of three since joining the UFC. He hasn't fought in about eighteen months since getting knocked out in the first round by Charles Radtke. He was supposed to fight Mike Malott last July, but pulled out with an injury. Medic is a kill or be killed fighter and Urbina has an all action style as well so this will be fun while it lasts. Medic has a suspect ground game, but Urbina might not even choose to grapple. If that’s the case, I trust the firepower and durability more of Medic and see him stopping Urbina inside two rounds.

PREDICTION: Uros Medic by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Gabriella Fernandes (-440) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (+340):

Gabriella Fernandes is coming off a huge upset of Wang Cong as +600 underdog. She dropped Cong with a head kick and then put her to sleep with a rear naked choke in the second round. It was Fernandes' second straight win in the UFC after dropping her first two. She'll take on Julija Stoliarenko who is coming off a third round ground and pound stoppage at the hands of Luana Carolina. Stoliarenko is just 2-6 in the UFC with both her wins coming by first round armbar submission. Fernandes has some defensive wrestling issues, but Stoliarenko is not a good wrestler. She's obviously very effective with the armbar as evidenced by a majority of her wins coming by it. I would expect Fernandes' grappling to be good enough to get caught in it, but WMMA is strange. On the feet, I give Fernandes a considerable edge and can even see her taking down Stoliarenko who is not good off her back. Fernandes should win a decision here, but a late ground stoppage isn't out of the question.

PREDICTION: Gabriella Fernandes by DEC

Cody Brundage (-170) vs. Eric McConico (+140):

Opening up the early prelims is a short notice light heavyweight bout between middleweights Cody Brundage and Eric McConico. Brundage has never fought at light heavyweight, while McConico has but has also fought as low as welterweight. McConico had a rough UFC debut against Nursulton Ruziboev, getting knocked down multiple times and eventually finished in the second round, while Brundage is coming off another controversial fight with Mansur Abdul-Malik. An accidental headbutt led to a stoppage and gave Abdul-Malik the win by technical decision on fight night, but Brundage appealed and got the result overturned. Brundage is the more experienced of the two, but he's impossible to trust. McConico's chin looks like an issue so maybe Brundage can club him early, but the longer the fight goes the more I favor McConico.

PREDICTION: Eric McConico by DEC

UFC VEGAS 109 TICKET

SATURDAY AUGUST 9TH

MAIN CARD:

Anthony Hernandez/Christian Rodriguez -125 (1.25u)

Hernandez RD4 +900 (0.1u)

Hernandez RD5 +1000 (0.1u)

Steve Erceg ITD -130 (0.65u)

Angela Hill +170 (0.5u)

PRELIMS:

Joselyn Edwards DEC +100 (0.75u)

Edwards RD3 +850 (0.1u)

Gabriella Fernandes DEC +225 (0.4u)

Eric McConico +140 (0.5u)

McConico DEC +500 (0.2u)