UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs. Barber Saturday 5/31

After a week off, the UFC is back at the APEX headlined by a solid fighter between top women's flyweight contenders in Erin Blanchfield and Maycee Barber. We are down to only ten fights so the ticket is super tight this week.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 107) +0.35u

2025 YTD: -8.41u

Erin Blanchfield (-220) vs. Maycee Barber (+180):

In the main event, Erin Blanchfield faces Maycee Barber in a five round flyweight bout.  Blanchfield is coming off a five round unanimous decision victory over Rose Namajunas and has won seven of eight since joining the UFC.  Barber hasn’t fought since last March, but she’s riding a seven fight win streak that includes controversial split decision wins over Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee.  This is a great fight between two young contenders.  Blanchfield is a very strong grappler, but her striking and wrestling are still question marks, while Barber has the edge in striking technique and power.  Blanchfield throws good volume and has strong cardio, but Barber is definitely the more dangerous striker with good cardio as well.  The takedowns won’t come easy for Blanchfield, but over the course of five rounds I see her securing a few and that being the difference in her winning the fight.

PREDICTION:  Erin Blanchfield by DEC

Mateusz Gamrot (-155) vs. L’udovit Klein (+130):

In the co-main event, Mateusz Gamrot takes on L’udovit Klein in a lightweight bout.  Gamrot is coming off a split decision loss to Dan Hooker that snapped a three fight winning streak, while Klein is unbeaten in his last seven with a majority draw to Jai Herbert in the mix.  Klein is on a nice little run, but this is going to be a tough matchup for him.  He has very solid takedown defense, but Gamrot is a relentless wrestler and has no problem racking up multiple takedowns.  He’s landed at least four takedowns in seven of his UFC fights and should have similar success here.

PREDICTION:  Mateusz Gamrot by DEC

Billy Ray Goff (-395) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+310):

Billy Ray Goff and Ramiz Brahimaj had their opponents pull out due to visa issues so now they will fight each other.  Goff hasn’t fought in a year since losing a close unanimous decision to Trey Waters, but two scheduled fights fell apart.  He was supposed to fight Seok Hyun Ko, while Brahimaj was set to face Oban Elliott.  Brahimaj is coming off a first round knockout of Mickey Gall, his third first round finish in the UFC.  Ten of Brahimaj’s eleven wins have come in the first round.  Goff is an all action fighter and Brahimaj is a quick finisher so we should be in for a fun one here.  Brahimaj has never been knocked out, but he’s also never won a fight by decision.  He should have an early grappling edge on Goff, but the longer this goes, it’s all Goff.  I’ll go with Goff by second round knockout and to be the first fighter to knock Brahimaj out.

PREDICTON:  Billy Ray Goff by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Dustin Jacoby (-190) vs. Bruno Lopes (+160):

Dustin Jacoby is coming off a come from behind third round knockout victory over Vitor Petrino, but prior to that had lost four of his last five, although two were questionable decisions. Bruno Lopes suffered his first career loss on the Contender Series in a major upset to Brendson Ribeiro, but has rattled off three straight wins. He won by second round knockout in his second chance on the Contender Series and then defeated Magomed Gadzhiyasulov by unanimous decision in his UFC debut. Lopes is 14-1 with eleven wins inside the distance, six by knockout.  Through two Contender Series appearances and his UFC debut, Lopes hasn’t impressed me much.  Riberiro knocked him out and Mikheil Sazhiniani gassed hard which allowed Lopes to finish him, then he resorted to wrestling against Gadzhiyasulov in a terrible fight.  Jacoby is in a bit of a rut, but he’s had some decisions go against him.  Jacoby will be the better striker and his get up game is good if taken down.  Jacoby by knockout is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Dustin Jacoby by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Ketlen Vieira (+110) vs. Macy Chiasson (-130):

This is the third time the UFC has tried to book this fight between Ketlen Vieira and Macy Chiasson. Vieira pulled out in January 2024, while Chiasson pulled out earlier this February. Vieira is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Kayla Harrison and has lost two of her last three, while Chiasson has won two straight, both by stoppage.  This was originally supposed to be a bantamweight bout, but Vieira had issues making weight so now it’s at featherweight which is where Chiasson started her UFC career.  Chiasson has the bigger frame, but that might be her only advantage.  These two love to battle in the clinch and are both bad when put on their backs.  I’m going to side with Vieira because she has slightly better takedowns and didn’t cut the extra weight like Chiasson did.  I don’t have a lot of confidence in this pick because it just comes down to who scores the takedown from the clinch.

PREDICTION:  Ketlen Vieira by DEC 

Zachary Reese (-205) vs. Dusko Todorovic (+170):

Zachary Reese is coming off a first round knockout loss to Azamat Bekoev and is now 2-2 in the UFC. He has a unanimous decision win over Jose Medina and a first round knockout of Julian Marquez. Both of his losses are by first round knockout. He's only been to a decision once in ten career fights. Dusko Todorovic is coming off a first round knockout loss to Mansur Abdul-Malik and has lost three of his last four. Four of his five UFC losses have all been by first round finish although one was a knee injury.  Todorovic has some serious durability issues, but Reese may also.  This should be a fun striking battle for as long as it lasts, but I’ll pick Reese to get the finish early.

PREDICTION:  Zachary Reese by 1st RD KO/TKO

Allan Nascimento (-120) vs. Jafel Filho (+100):

Allan Nascimento hasn't fought since January of 2023 and has more canceled fights in the UFC (six) than actual fights (three). Nascimento lost a close split decision to Tagir Ulanbekov in his UFC debut. Then he defeated Jake Hadley by unanimous decision and submitted Carlos Hernandez in the first round. He's withdrawn from three fights since and had a March fight with Asu Almabayev fizzle when Almabayev was rebooked.  Jafel Filho lost his UFC debut by third round submission to Muhammad Mokaev, but has won two straight by first round submission.  This is a very evenly matched fight as Nascimento and Filho are strong grapplers with limited striking.  I think Filho may be the better wrestler though and Nascimento’s lack of activity has me concerned so I’ll side with Filho.

PREDICTION:  Jafel Filho by DEC

Jordan Leavitt (-245) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+200):

Jordan Leavitt is coming off a first round submission loss to Chase Hooper and has lost two of his last three, both by submission.  Kurt Holobaugh has also lost two of his last three, dropping unanimous decisions to Alexander Hernandez and Trey Ogden.  Leavitt is a solid grappler, but he’s a limited striker and is a poor defensive wrestler.  He’ll look to aggressively wrestle and that should be his gameplan here against Holobaugh who struggles to defend takedowns.  Holobaugh is a much more dangerous striker than Leavitt so as long as he can stay upright, this is his fight to lose.  I am nervous about Holobaugh’s lack of defensive wrestling, but he’s the better striker, has better cardio and is a strong grappler himself.

PREDICTION:  Kurt Holobaugh by DEC

Bolaji Oki (-375) vs. Michael Aswell (+295):

Bolaji Oki was originally supposed to face MarQuel Mederos here, but now he’ll face Michael Aswell who will make his UFC debut up a weight class on just a few days notice.  Aswell is 10-2 with five wins by knockout and five by decision.  He lost a split decision to Bogdan Grad on the Contender Series and also has a decision loss to another UFC fighter, Yadier DelValle.  Oki is coming off a first round submission loss to Chris Duncan after edging out Timothy Cuamba by split decision in his UFC debut.  Aswell is a fun action fighter, but he’s going to give up size and power to Oki.  Aswell’s best shot is to hope Oki gasses so that he can push his typical pace.  Otherwise, Oki will be the one landing the more impactful shots.

PREDICTION:  Bolaji Oki by DEC

Rayanne dos Santos (-220) vs. Alice Ardelean (+180):

Opening up the prelims is a women’s strawweight bout between Rayanne dos Santos and Alice Ardelean.  Dos Santos has lost her first two UFC fights, both by split decision, but she should have won both fights.  Ardelean has also lost her first two fights in the UFC.  She lost a clear unanimous decision to Melissa Martinez last time out, but had an argument for the win in her split decision loss to Shauna Bannon.  Skill for skill, dos Santos is the more skilled fighter, but she’s really an atomweight so she’s undersized for the weight class.  If she can score some takedowns, she should be able to dominate Ardelean on the ground, but Ardelean might be too physical.  If that’s the case, this turns into a sloppy striking match and dos Santos isn’t good enough on the feet for me to back her at this price.  Gun to my head, I’ll take Ardelean by decision, but there’s no need to bet on this slop.

PREDICTION:  Alice Ardelean by DEC

UFC VEGAS 107 TICKET

SATURDAY MAY 31ST

MAIN CARD:

Erin Blanchfield/Dustin Jacoby +120 (1u)

Mateusz Gamrot -155 (1.55u)

Zachary Reese KO/TKO -120 (0.9u)

PRELIMS:

Kurt Holobaugh +200 (0.5u)

Holobaugh DEC +600 (0.1u)