UFC Vegas 106: Burns vs. Morales Saturday 5/17

After a couple weeks on the road, the UFC is back at the APEX in Las Vegas.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 315) +0.25u

YTD: -8.85u

Michael Morales (-550) vs. Gilbert Burns (+410):

In the main event, Michael Morales puts his undefeated record on the line as he faces Gilbert Burns in a five round welterweight bout. Morales is 5-0 in the UFC and 17-0 overall. He's coming off a first round knockout of Neil Magny. Burns has lost three straight and coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Sean Brady. Burns has been facing elite welterweights and will be the stiffest test of Morales' young career even though Burns is clearly on the decline. Morales' takedown defense will be put to the test as just one fight ago Burns landed seven takedowns on newly crowned UFC welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena. Burns has power on the feet, but he isn't the most technical striker so Morales should be controlling the striking exchanges and see him hurting Burns and finishing him in the third or fourth round.

PREDICTION: Michael Morales by 3rd RD KO/TKO

Rodolfo Bellato (-425) vs. Paul Craig (+330):

In the co-main event, Rodolfo Bellato takes on Paul Craig in a light heavyweight bout. Bellato is coming off a majority draw with Jimmy Crute after knocking out Ihor Potieria in the second round in his UFC debut. Bellato is 12-2-1 with eleven wins inside the distance, seven by knockout. Both of his losses are by knockout to Vitor Petrino. After losing his last three fights at middleweight, Craig is moving back up the light heavyweight division where all eight of his wins came by stoppage, six by submission. Craig is a dangerous submission grappler, but he's a poor striker and wrestler and his durability is an issue. Bellato would have to make a critical mistake of engaging Craig on the ground for him to lose this fight. Bellato has durability concerns of his own, but he's tough and should be able to stop Craig on the feet inside two rounds.

PREDICTION: Rodolfo Bellato by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Mairon Santos (-150) vs. Sodiq Yusuff (+125):

It's a quick turnaround for Mairon Santos who is coming off a controversial split decision victory over Francis Marshall in March. Santos won "The Ultimate Fighter" with a second round knockout of Kaan Ofli and is now 15-1 with eight wins by knockout and seven by decision. He faces Sodiq Yusuff who has lost two in a row and coming off a first round knockout loss to Diego Lopes a year ago. Yusuff is making the move up to lightweight, while Santos is taking this fight on short notice, even though he preferred a fight at featherweight. Santos didn't look great against Marshall, but Yusuff isn't going to threaten with wrestling like Marshall did. Yusuff has power, but I think Santos is the cleaner striker and has the better cardio and I see him winning a decision.

PREDICTION: Mairon Santos by DEC

Nursulton Ruziboev (-230) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+190):

Nursulton Ruziboev is coming off a second round knockout of Eric McConico and has won three of four since joining the UFC with all three wins by knockout, two in the first round. He takes on Dustin Stoltzfus who is coming in off a first round knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault. Stoltzfus is 3-5 in the UFC with two wins by finishes, while getting stopped in four of his five losses. Ruziboev is a dangerous finisher early, but there are concerns with him in extended fights and with his defensive wrestling. Stoltzfus is a solid grappler so he could potentially exploit that weakness in Ruziboev's game, but he has durability concerns. Ruziboev should be able to swarm him early and put him away in the first round.

PREDICTION: Nursulton Ruziboev by 1st RD KO/TKO

Melquizael Costa (-180) vs. Julian Erosa (+150):

Melquizael Costa has won three in a row and four of five since losing his UFC debut to Thiago Moises. He faces Julian Erosa who just fought a month ago, stopping Darren Elkins in the first round with strikes. It was Erosa’s third straight first round finish. In fact, his last five fights have all ended in the first round with him getting knocked out twice. I've picked against Costa in his last two and I'm doing it again. Erosa’s durability is always a major concern, but he's a really solid fighter when he stays conscious. I think Erosa is a better striker and grappler than Costa so he just has to avoid getting clipped.

PREDICTION: Julian Erosa by DEC

Matheus Camilo (-220) vs. Gabe Green (+180):

Matheus Camilo will be making his UFC debut after impressing UFC matchmakers in a win over Dorobshokh Nabotov where Camilo came in as the B-side after Nabotov crashed a UFC press conference begging for an opportunity. Camilo is 9-2 with six wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He'll face Gabe Green who hasn't fought in two years since suffering a fourteen second knockout loss to Bryan Battle. Green will be moving back down to lightweight where he campaigned at before joining the UFC on short notice. Camilo is nothing special as he's a slow paced grinding fighter while Green is a pressured based fighter with typically solid durability. Green hung tough with fighters like Ian Garry and Daniel Rodriguez and I don't see him having much difficulty with Camilo. Give me the experienced veteran Green as an underdog.

PREDICTION: Gabe Green by DEC

Jared Gordon (-130) vs. Thiago Moises (+110):

After two opponents fell out in February, it's been almost a year since Jared Gordon lost a controversial split decision to Nasrat Haqparast. He'll face Thiago Moises who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Trey Ogden and has won two of his last three. Gordon and Moises are two experienced veterans so this is solid matchmaking as evidenced by the betting line. The odds have shifted in Gordon's favor and I agree with the movement. Moises doesn't have the power to test Gordon's durability and I favor the workrate of Gordon to be the deciding factor in this fight.

PREDICTION: Jared Gordon by DEC

Yadier DelValle (-600) vs. Connor Matthews (+440):

Yadier DelValle punched his ticket to the UFC with a unanimous decision victory on the Contender Series. He's undefeated at 8-0 with four wins inside the distance and four by decision. He'll take on Connor Matthews who has been finished by strikes in back to back fights since joining the UFC. Matthews is a tough kid, but he's outgunned here. DelValle should be able to beat him up on the feet or the mat and eventually pick up a finish in the second or third round.

PREDICTION: Yadier DelValle by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Luana Santos (-180) vs. Tainara Lisboa (+150):

Luana Santos is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Casey O'Neill that snapped a three fight winning streak to start her UFC career. She'll face a fellow Brazilian in Tainara Lisboa who is 2-0 in the UFC and coming off a unanimous decision win over Ravena Oliveira. Santos will be going back up to bantamweight, while Lisboa returns after a long layoff due to a knee injury. Santos was exposed a bit against O'Neill and I see her having issues with Lisboa as well. Lisboa is the sharper striker and Santos' takedowns aren't good enough to put Lisboa on her back where she's weakest. Lisboa strikes her way to decision and possibly mixes in takedowns of her own.

PREDICTION: Tainara Lisboa by DEC

Denise Gomes (-650) vs. Elise Reed (+470):

Denise Gomes is coming off a unanimous decision win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz and has won four of her last five since losing her UFC debut to Loma Lookboonmee. She'll take on Elise Reed who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jessica Penne and has won two of her last three. Gomes is the more powerful and physical fighter here and as long as she can stay off her back, she should be landing the better shots on the feet.

PREDICTION: Denise Gomes by DEC

Hyun Sung Park (-200) vs. Carlos Hernandez (+160):

Hyun Sung Park has won two straight since joining the UFC. He won the Road to UFC tournament with a third round submission of Seung Guk Choi and then finished Shannon Ross in the second round with strikes. He's undefeated at 9-0 with eight wins inside the distance. He'll put his undefeated record on the line as he faces Carlos Hernandez who snapped a two fight losing streak with a split decision win over Nyamjargal Tumendemberel. Hernandez has been used as a test for for Asian prospects like Tatsuro Taira and Rei Tsuyura, but Park is not a prospect on their level. Hernandez has better volume, better cardio and has faced stiffer competition. Park may have his moments and is a proven finisher, but he's faced weak competition and Hernandez is typically durable. Hernandez never really pulls away in fights so expect this one to be close.

PREDICTION: Carlos Hernandez by DEC

Tecia Pennington (-325) vs. Luana Pinheiro (+260):

In the opening prelim, Tecia Pennington takes on Luana Pinheiro in a women's strawweight bout. Pennington is coming in off a unanimous decision win over Carla Esparza after back to back split decision losses to Tabatha Ricci and Mackenzie Dern. Pinheiro is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Gillian Robertson that extended her losing streak to three. Pinheiro's grappling and cardio are her weaknesses, but Pennington is unlikely to test her in the grappling department. However, Pennington is a high volume striker and has been competing with the best in the division for years. Pinheiro should have some size and strength advantages, but Pennington should be able to just outwork her. I think the line is a bit wide in favor of Pennington, but she is the rightful favorite here.

PREDICTION: Tecia Pennington by DEC

UFC VEGAS 106 TICKET

SATURDAY MAY 17TH

MAIN CARD:

Michael Morales ITD -160 (1.2u)

Rodolfo Bellato KO/TKO -185 (1.85u)

Nursulton Ruziboev KO/TKO -140 (1.05u)

Mairon Santos -150 (0.75u)

Julian Erosa +150 (0.5u)

Erosa DEC +500 (0.2u)

PRELIMS:

Gabe Green +180 (0.5u)

Green DEC +600 (0.15u)

Jared Gordon -130 (1.3u)

Yadier DelValle ITD +100 (0.5u)

Tainara Lisboa +150 (0.5u)

Lisboa DEC +275 (0.2u)

Carlos Hernandez +160 (0.5u)

Hernandez DEC +225 (0.2u)