UFC Vancouver: De Ridder vs. Allen Saturday 10/18

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Rio): +0.8u

2025 YTD: -21.33u

Reiner de Ridder (-200) vs. Brendan Allen (+165):

In the main event, Reiner de Ridder takes on Brendan Allen in a five round middleweight bout. De Ridder was originally supposed to face Anthony Hernandez, but now faces Allen. De Ridder is coming off a five round split decision victory and is 4-0 in the UFC with three finishes in his first three fights. Allen is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Marvin Vettori that snapped a two fight losing streak to Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov. This is a great matchup between two strong grapplers, but the striking is what makes this very intriguing. Allen is definitely the better distance striker, but you can't count out de Ridder who is awkward, but effective especially in the clinch. I'm very interested in the grappling exchanges and see both guys having moments of success. In the end, I'm going to side with de Ridder to use his size and strength in the clinch where he'll throw knees to Allen's body and soften him up as well as mix in some takedowns.

PREDICTION: Reiner de Ridder by DEC

Mike Malott (-115) vs. Kevin Holland (-105):

In the co-main event, Mike Malott faces Kevin Holland in a welterweight bout. Malott has won five of six since joining the UFC with four finishes. Holland is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Daniel Rodriguez after winning two straight over Gunnar Nelson and Vicente Luque after returning to the welterweight division. Holland looked bad in the Rodriguez fight. He's typically durable, but he was hurt multiple times and lost grappling exchanges to Rodriguez, who is an inferior grappler. I favor Holland if this fight stays standing, but his takedown defense is just so bad and Malott is a strong grappler that I can definitely see holding Holland down. I'll go with Malott by decision.

PREDICTION: Mike Malott by DEC

Aiemann Zahabi (-130) vs. Marlon Vera (+110):

Since losing two in a row, Aiemann Zahabi has won six straight and coming off a career best win over UFC legend Jose Aldo. He'll take on Marlon Vera who has lost two straight and three of his last four. Zahabi is not a real fun fighter to watch, but he fights smart and effectively. Vera is a definitely a more dangerous striker and finisher, but Zahabi is a good defensive striker and pretty durable. Vera is a notorious slow starter, but he has great cardio and durability and builds as the fight goes. However, Zahabi isn't the type of fighter that Vera can weaponize his cardio against so I'll go with Zahabi in a close decision.

PREDICTION: Aiemann Zahabi by DEC

Manon Fiorot (-230) vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (+190):

Manon Fiorot had won her first seven fights in the UFC, but fell short in her UFC flyweight title bid against Valentina Shevchenko. She'll face Jasmine Jasudavicius who has won five straight and eight of ten fights since joining the UFC. I'm a big fan of Jasudavicius, but this is a rough matchup for her. Fiorot is a far superior striker and has good takedown defense. Jasudavicius loves to push the pace and look to break her opponents on the mat, but Fiorot has faced better wrestlers and will eat Jasudacvicius up on the feet en route to a clear decision win.

PREDICTION: Manon Fiorot by DEC

Cody Gibson (-180) vs. Aoriqileng (+150):

Cody Gibson had won two straight, but he's coming off a second round submission loss via kimura to Da'Mon Blackshear. He'll take on Aoriqileng who is coming off a unanimous decision loss Raul Rosas Jr. and has unofficially lost three of his last four. He was getting wrecked by Daniel Marcos before it was ruled a no contest and Aiemann Zahabi knocked him out in just over a minute. Gibson is a well-rounded fighter, but his wrestling and grappling are his biggest strengths. He's a better fighter than Aoriqileng in every facet, but he is willing to brawl and Aoriqileng does have some power. It wouldn't shock me to see Gibson get hurt, but I see him mixing up the striking and wrestling to win a decision.

PREDICTION: Cody Gibson by DEC

Matt Frevola (-120) vs. Kyle Nelson (+100):

Matt Frevola hasn't fought in a little over a year since suffering a brutal third round knockout against Fares Ziam. Prior to that, he was knocked out in the first round by Benoit Saint Denis after picking up three straight first round knockout victories of his own. He'll face Kyle Nelson who is coming off a first round knockout loss to Steve Garcia after missing the featherweight limit. Nelson had won three straight prior to that. Frevola's durability terrifies me, but Nelson isn't the most durable either and Frevola is the bigger and stronger fighter here. Frevola is alsi the better wrestler and grappler when he chooses, but I'm expecting a slugfest. I'll go with Frevola to get the finish inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Matt Frevola by 1st RD KO/TKO

Charles Jourdain (-180) vs. Davey Grant (+150):

Charles Jourdain is coming off a second round submission win via guillotine choke over Victor Henry in his bantamweight debut. Davey Grant has won two straight and could realistically be on a six fight winning streak if two split decisions went his way. Jourdain and Grant are good strikers with Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belts, but neither are strong wrestlers. Grant has proven me wrong plenty of times because he's slow and unathletic, but I'm still picking against him again with Jourdain being the younger and more explosive striker.

PREDICTION: Charles Jourdain by DEC

Hyun Sung Park (-245) vs. Bruno Silva (+200):

Hyun Sung Park won his first three fights in the UFC, all by finish, but suffered his first loss to Tatsuro Taira by second round submission via face crank. He'll take on Bruno Silva who is coming off back to back third round knockout losses to Joshua Van and Manel Kape. Park is not as good of a prospect as this line suggests. He has good boxing and grappling skills, but there are durability concerns as well as defensive wrestling issues. Park has been hurt in multiple fights in his "Road to UFC" and UFC tenure. Silva has solid power in his hands and good wrestling of his own. I'll go with Silva to pull off the upset.

PREDICTION: Bruno Silva by DEC

Danny Barlow (-280) vs. Djorden Santos (+225):

Danny Barlow won his first two fights in the UFC, but is coming off a first round knockout loss to Sam Patterson that put the first blemish on his undefeated record. He's moving up to middleweight where he'll face Djorden Santos who lost his UFC debut to Ozzy Diaz by unanimous decision. Santos is the natural middleweight, but Barlow will have a two inch height and four inch reach advantage. Santos is the more aggressive and active striker, while Barlow is the more technical. It's just a matter if his power translates to middleweight. Barlow has that powerful left hand, but he also has strong kicks. Santos is pretty durable and should keep this close with his volume and aggression, but I see Barlow landing the more impactful blows that either lead to a knockout or decision win.

PREDICTION: Danny Barlow by DEC

Drew Dober (-380) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+300):

Drew Dober has lost three straight and four of his last five with two of the losses coming by knockout and the other a doctor stoppage. He takes on Kyle Prepolec who stepped up on short notice to face Benoit Saint Denis, but was submitted in the second round. Prepolec is 0-3 across two stints in the UFC. Dober and Prepolec both like to strike with Dober being the bigger hitter, but also having more durability concerns. Prepolec has never been knocked out, while Dober has suffered multiple knockouts and was hurt badly by Terrance McKinney and dropped late by Brad Riddell. I understand prime Dober being this big of a favorite, but not this current version. I'm still going to pick Dober, but wouldn't be shocked to see him hurt in a reckless exchange.

PREDICTION: Drew Dober by DEC

Stephanie Luciano (-300) vs. Ravena Oliveira (+240):

Stephanie Luciano is coming off a split decision loss to Sam Hughes after defeating Talita Alencar by unanimous decision in her UFC debut. She'll face Ravena Oliveira who hasn't fought in two years since losing a unanimous decision to Tainara Lisboa in her UFC debut. Oliveira is drooping two weight classes from bantamweight to strawweight. Luciano is a sharp striker with solid takedown defense and strong cardio. I'd be very surprised if Oliveira had much success here at all. She's an inferior striker and doesn't possess the wrestling to consistently take down Luciano. Luciano is going to be too slick on the feet and should cruise to a decision win.

PREDICTION: Stephanie Luciano by DEC

Azamat Bekoev (-300) vs. Yousri Belgaroui (+240):

Azamat Bekoev has won two straight since joining the UFC, both by first round knockout. He takes on Yousri Belgaroui who went 1-1 on the Contender Series, losing a unanimous decision to Marco Tulio, then knocking out Taiga Iwasaki in the third round. Belgaroui is a former GLORY kickboxer and will have a five inch height and seven inch reach advantage over Bekoev. Bekoev is your standard wrestle-boxer, while Belgaroui is an experienced kickboxer. Bekoev has some power in his striking, but I have to favor Belgaroui with his technical skill and length. If he can stuff the takedowns, he could pull off the upset, but I see Bekoev being able to land multiple takedowns to win decision or finish the fight with ground and pound.

PREDICTION: Azamat Bekoev by DEC

Tainara Lisboa (+110) vs. Melissa Croden (-130):

Kicking off the prelims is a women's bantamweight bout between Tainara Lisboa and Melissa Croden who will be making her UFC debut. Lisboa is coming off a second round submission loss to Luana Santos after winning her first two fights in the UFC. Croden is 6-2 with all her wins inside the distance, five by knockout. I'm not too excited about Croden and Lisboa looked awful in her last fight. The striking should be competitive, while Croden looks to be the more physical and could rough Lisboa up in the clinch or on the ground. I'll pick Croden, but I'll pass altogether on this one from a gambling perspective.

PREDICTION: Melissa Croden by DEC

UFC VANCOUVER TICKET

SATURDAY OCTOBER 18TH

MAIN CARD:

Reiner de Ridder/Brendan Allen over 2.5 rounds -155 (1.55u)

Mike Malott -115 (1.15)

Malott DEC +450 (0.2u)

Cody Gibson -180 (1.8u)

Matt Frevola/Kyle Nelson under 2.5 rounds -165 (1.65u)

Matt Frevola -120 (1.2u)

Frevola ITD +150 (0.5u)

PRELIMS:

Charles Jourdain DEC +150 (0.5u)

Bruno Silva +200 (0.5u)

Silva DEC +450 (0.2u)

Stephanie Luciano DEC -150 (0.75u)