UFC Shanghai: Walker vs. Zhang Saturday 8/23

The UFC heads to Shanghai, China with a fun main event and very intriguing co-main event, but be prepared to wake up bright and early to watch the fights with a start of 12am on the West Coast and 3am on the East Coast.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 319): -4.8u

2025 YTD: -19.93u

Zhang Minyang (-380) vs. Johnny Walker (+300):

In the main event, Zhang Minyang takes on Johnny Walker in a five round light heavyweight bout. Zhang is 3-0 in the UFC with three first round knockouts. All nineteen of his wins have come by finish, thirteen by knockout. He hasn't been to the second round since 2018. Walker is winless in his last three fights and has pulled out of two fights since getting knocked out in the first round by Volkan Oezdemir in the second round in June of 2024. He's been knocked out in four of his six losses in the UFC. The UFC is looking to build up Minyang as their next Asian star so matching him up with Walker is a smart move because I'm expecting another first round finish for the Chinese prospect. There's still some question marks with Zhang and Walker will be the toughest test of his career, but Walker has serious durability issues.

PREDICTION: Zhang Minyang by 1st RD KO/TKO

Aljamain Sterling (-485) vs. Brian Ortega (+370):

In the co-main event, Aljamain Sterling takes on Brian Ortega in a five round non-title featherweight bout. Sterling is 1-1 since moving up to featherweight with a unanimous decision win over Calvin Kattar and a super competitive unanimous decision loss to Movsar Evloev last time out. Ortega is coming off a three round unanimous decision loss to Diego Lopes and has lost three of his last four fights. Ortega is the naturally bigger fighter with Sterling being a former bantamweight, but I'm not sure he has much else going for him here. He's a dangerous grappler, but Sterling is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt as well and he's the better wrestler. Ortega is also a punching bag on the feet, but Sterling has a better kicking game than boxing. I'm expecting a lot of grappling in this one and while Ortega is very slick on the mat, Sterling will be the one landing takedowns and establishing dominant position. Sterling by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Aljamain Sterling by DEC

UPDATE:

This fight is now at lightweight after Ortega had medical complications cutting weight. First, the fight was announced as cancelled, but then confirmed at lightweight. Ortega looked absolutely awful on the scale and at the face-off with Sterling. I was already confident in Sterling, but now I think there's a much greater chance he finishes Ortega.

Sergei Pavlovich (-250) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+205):

Sergei Pavlovich snapped a two fight losing streak with a unanimous decision win over Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Now he'll take on Waldo Cortes-Acosta who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Serghei Spivac and has won seven of eight since joining the UFC. Pavlovich added a new wrinkle to his game against Rozenstruik as he landed multiple takedowns and chose not to slug it out. Cortes-Acosta isn't the knockout threat that Rozenstruik was, but he does have good boxing. Pavlovich can win this fight through striking, but the path of least resistance would be to wrestle again so he's going to be the pick.

PREDICTION: Sergei Pavlovich by DEC

Sumudaerji (-170) vs. Kevin Borjas (+140):

Sumudaerji is coming off a split decision win over Mitch Raposo that snapped a three fight losing streak. He'll face Kevin Borjas who picked up his first UFC win with a unanimous decision over Ronaldo "Lazy Boy" Rodriguez. Sumudaerji's biggest issues come when he faces grapplers, but Borjas is likely to want to keep this standing and Sumudaerji has a three inch height and four inch reach advantage. Borjas has been a popular underdog pick this week, but I'm going with Sumudaerji to win a competitive, but clear decision.

PREDICTION: Sumudaerji by DEC

Taiyilake Nueraji (-520) vs. Kiefer Crosbie (+390):

Taiyilake Nueraji will be making his UFC debut, stepping in for Song Kenan, as he takes on Kiefer Crosbie. Nueraji is 11-1 with all of his wins coming by stoppage, ten by knockout. Nine of his twelve fights have ended in the first round. Crosbie is 0-2 in the UFC after being submitted in the first round by both Kevin Jousset and Sam Patterson. Nueraji is mainly a striker so he's likely to give Crosbie the fight he wants, but he really should look to grapple because Crosbie is not good on the ground at all. I'll go with Nueraji as the pick, but Crosbie has never been knocked out so I wouldn't go jamming Nueraji into your parlays.

PREDICTION: Taiyilake Nueraji by DEC

Gauge Young (-140) vs. Maheshate (+120):

Gauge Young lost his short notice UFC debut to Evan Elder and now he comes in as a slight favorite over Maheshate. Young is 9-3 with seven wins inside the distance, six by submission. Maheshate is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Nikolas Motta and has lost three of his last four fights. I thought Maheshate lost to Gabriel Benitez so in my mind he's on a four fight losing streak. He has a knockout win over Steve Garcia which is super impressive and shows his knockout power, but outside of that fight he hasn't looked very good. He's a low volume striker and can be outwrestled. Young comes from a wrestling background and I do expect him to have success here like Rafa Garcia did. Young by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Gauge Young by DEC

Lone'er Kavanagh (-260) vs. Charles Johnson (+210):

Lone'er Kavanagh is looking to keep his 9-0 undefeated record intact as he faces a tough veteran in Charles Johnson. Kavanagh has unanimous decision wins over Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos. Johnson is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Ramzan Temirov that snapped a four fight winning streak. Kavanagh is a fast and sharp striker, but he isn't a high volume striker and had to resort to his wrestling against dos Santos to pull out the win. Johnson's takedown defense can be exploited, but he's hard to keep down and he has great cardio and striking volume. Johnson is always in razor close decisions so I'm willing to take a shot on him here as the underdog.

PREDICTION: Charles Johnson by DEC

Rongzhu (-285) vs. Austin Hubbard (+230):

Rongzhu is in his second stint in the UFC and coming off an upset win via unanimous decision over Kody Steele. He's now 2-3 in the UFC and takes on Austin Hubbard. Hubbard in his second stint in the UFC as well and has lost three of four since returning. He's lost consecutive split decisions to MarQuel Mederos and Alexander Hernandez. Rongzhu really impressed me in his last fight and he should look impressive over Hubbard here as well. Rongzhu is the better athlete and the lumbering Hubbard won't be able to grind his way to a decision like he needs to do to win.

PREDICTION: Rongzhu by DEC

Michel Pereira (-245) vs. Kyle Daukaus (+200):

Michel Pereira was originally supposed to face Marco Tulio, but now will face Kyle Daukaus who makes his return to the UFC. Daukaus went 2-4 in the UFC, but rattled off four straight wins, three by stoppage, in CFFC to get the call back to the Octagon. Pereira has lost two straight after winning eight straight prior and looked particularly bad in his last fight against Abus Magomedov. Pereira is an interesting fighter because he was a flashy showman early on in his UFC run, but his cardio couldn't hold up. He's been fighting at a more measured pace lately and definitely poses an early finishing threat to Daukaus who has suspect durability. Daukaus is the better submission grappler, but isn't the best wrestler and Pereira has solid takedown defense. I'm going to take the shot on Daukaus here, hoping he can secure multiple takedowns or potentially lock up a submission.

PREDICTION: Kyle Daukaus by DEC

Yizha (-1050) vs. Westin Wilson (+675):

Yizha is winless in two appearances in the UFC, but he's coming in as the biggest favorite on the card as he faces Westin Wilson who is coming off a first round armar submission of Jeka Saragih over a year ago. Wilson was knocked out in the first round by Jean Silva and Joanderson Brito in his first two fights in the Octagon. Wilson is not a UFC caliber fighter, but this line is absolutely ridiculous and Yizha is just an average fighter himself. I don't love Wilson's durability, but Yizha isn't packing the power that Brito or Silva do. I may look stupid, but I'll say Wilson scores a first round submission win.

PREDICTION: Westin Wilson by 1st RD SUB

Su Young You (-130) vs. Long Xiao (+110):

Su Young Yu has won his first two fights in the UFC both by unanimous decision. Most recently he defeated AJ Cunningham. He'll take on Long Xiao who is coming off a third round knockout win over Quang Le after dropping a split decision to Chang Ho Lee in his UFC debut. Xiao is a more aggressive striker with good takedown defense, but You is the stronger wrestler and grappler. You has failed to finish in his last four fights so he's going to need to rack up control time because the scoring criteria is not kind to grapplers who don't cause damage. I'm going to pick You because I do like his ability to control Xiao and score multiple takedowns.

PREDICTION: Su Young You by DEC

Uran Satybaldiev (-110) vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (-110):

In the opening prelim of the night, Uran Satybaldiev takes on Diyar Nurgozhay in a light heavyweight bout. Satybaldiev is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Martin Buday in his short notice UFC debut at heavyweight, while Nurgozhay was submitted via kimura in the second round by Brendson Ribeiro in his UFC debut. While both had unsuccessful UFC debuts, I came away far more impressed with Satybaldiev who took on a good heavyweight in Buday, while Nurgozhay looked awful after missing weight by almost five pounds. These guys are pretty evenly matched as strikers with Satybaldiev having a two inch height and five inch reach advantage. As far as wrestling goes, I favor Satybaldiev and see him mixing in a few takedowns on his way to victory.

PREDICTION: Uran Satybaldiev by DEC

UFC SHANHGAI TICKET

SATURDAY AUGUST 23RD

MAIN CARD:

Zhang Minyang ITD & Aljamain Sterling -165 (1.65u)

Sterling ITD +200 (0.25u)

Sergei Pavlovich DEC +250 (0.2u)

Sumudaerji -170 (0.85u)

Gauge Young -140 (0.7u)

Young DEC +220 (0.25u)

PRELIMS:

Charles Johnson +210 (0.5u)

Rongzhu DEC -110 (1.1u)

Kyle Daukaus +200 (0.5u)

Westin Wilson +675 (0.2u)

Wilson SUB +1400 (0.1u)

Su Young You -130 (0.65u)

Uran Satybaldiev -110 (0.55u)