UFC Rio: Oliveira vs. Gamrot Saturday 10/11

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 320): -0.75u

2025 YTD: -22.13u

Mateusz Gamrot (-120) vs. Charles Oliveira (+100):

The main event was supposed to be Charles Oliveira versus Rafael Fiziev, but Fiziev got hurt so in steps Mateusz Gamrot on just a few weeks notice. Oliveira is coming off a first round knockout loss to Ilia Topuria and has lost two of his last three and three of his last five. However, those losses have come to elite talent in Topuria, Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan with the loss to Tsarukyan coming by split decision. Gamrot is coming off a unanimous decision victory over L'udovit Klein and has won four of his last five. It didn't seem like Oliveira was too thrilled with going from facing a striker in Fiziev to a wrestler in Gamrot. Gamrot is a strong wrestler, but Oliveira is a dangerous submission grappler so I don't expect Gamrot to just grind this one out for five rounds. On the feet, I favor Oliveira but I do worry about his durability although Gamrot isn't a big hitter. Gamrot's cardio isn't bad, but I do give the edge there to Oliveira. Gamrot likely has some early success wrestling, but Oliveira will make him work and see Oliveira gaining momentum and beating up Gamrot on the feet as the fight goes on.

PREDICTION: Charles Oliveira by DEC

Montel Jackson (-340) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+270):

In the co-main event, Montel Jackson takes on Deiveson Figeiredo in a bantamweight bout. Jackson is coming off a unanimous decision over Daniel Marcos and has won six in a row. Figueiredo won his first three fights at bantamweight, but he's dropped back to back fights, a five round unanimous decision loss to Petr Yan and a second round loss due to knee injury against Cory Sandhagen. Jackson is five inches taller and will have an almost eight inch reach advantage. Both Jackson and Figueiredo are low volume strikers so this could be close. I'll give the edge in wrestling and punching power to Jackson because Figueiredo's power hasn't translated as well to bantamweight. He's tough and durable though so expect Jackson to edge this one out on the cards.

PREDICTION: Montel Jackson by DEC

Joel Alvarez (-535) vs. Vicente Luque (+400):

Vicente Luque was originally supposed to face Santiago Ponzinibbio, but after Ponzinibbio pulled out, he'll face Joel Alvarez. This will be Alvarez's welterweight debut after going 7-2 at lightweight with seven finishes. All 22 of his career wins have come by finish. Luque is coming off a second round submission loss to Kevin Holland and has lost four of his last six fights. Alvarez was a massive lightweight at 6'3", but his frame should be fine at welterweight especially that he's not cutting an extra fifteen pounds. Alvarez has a ton of finishes by submission, but he's not looking to wrestle at all and his striking has greatly improved. Alvarez has poor defensive wrestling, but it looked improved against Elves Brener. Luque could look to mix in takedowns, but I think he'll be willing to slug it out with Alvarez. There I give the edge to Alvarez because I'm concerned about Luque's durability as this point after all the wars he's been in.

PREDICTION: Joel Alvarez by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Mario Pinto (+100) vs. Jhonata Diniz (-120):

Mario Pinto is undefeated at 10-0 and coming off a second round knockout of Austen Lane in his UFC debut. Seven of his wins are by finish, six by knockout. He'll take on Jhonata Diniz who has won three of four since joining the UFC and coming off a unanimous decision win over Alvin Hines. Diniz is a former GLORY kickboxer so he's an experienced striker, but so is Pinto who is more boxing based. It will be interesting to see if Pinto decides to mix in some wrestling because Diniz is awful on the ground. Diniz might have more knockout power, but I favor the cardio of Pinto. I'm going with Pinto here because of his cardio edge and potential grappling upside.

PREDICTION: Mario Pinto by DEC

Ricardo Ramos (-205) vs. Kaan Ofli (+170):

Ricardo Ramos has lost three of his last four with the win being a split decision over Josh Culibao. He'll face Kaan Ofli who is 0-2 in the UFC with a unanimous decision loss to Muhammad Naimov and a second round knockout loss to Mairon Santos in "The Ultimate Fighter" finale. Ramos is a very tough fighter to trust, but I like his overall game compared to Ofli's. Ramos is a low volume striker and has solid wrestling and grappling. However, he was submitted by guillotine choke in back to back fights as a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt so there's that. Ofli likes to wrestle and grapple, but he's a bit undersized for the featherweight division. Maybe he can have some success wrestling, but I think Ramos is the better wrestler. Ramos by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Ricardo Ramos by DEC

Michael Aswell (-245) vs. Lucas Almeida (+200):

Michael Aswell came up short on the Contender Series, losing a split decision to Bogdan Grad. He then got a short notice bout against Bolaji Oki at lightweight and lost a unanimous decision. Now he'll get a full camp back down at featherweight where he'll take on Lucas Almeida. Almeida knocked out MIchael Trizano in the third round in his UFC debut, but has lost three of his last four since. These two are definitely going to slug it out, but I give the volume, cardio and durability edges to Aswell. Also, Almeida had a visibly broken hand at weigh ins so who knows if this fight even happens.

PREDICTION: Michael Aswell by DEC

Clayton Carpenter (+110) vs. Jafel Filho (-130):

Clayton Carpenter is coming off his first professional loss, a unanimous decision to Tagir Ulanbekov. Prior to that, he won his first two fights in the UFC. Now he faces Jafel Filho who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Allan Nascimento that snapped a two fight winning streak where Filho won both fights by first round submission. Filho is going to start strong, but he doesn't have the offensive wrestling to take Carpenter down nor do I think he has the cardio to hang with Carpenter for three rounds. Carpenter takes over the latter half of the fight en route to a decision win.

PREDICTION: Clayton Carpenter by DEC

Vitor Petrino (-290) vs. Thomas Petersen (+230):

Vitor Petrino made the move from light heavyweight to heavyweight and picked up a first round submission via rear naked choke over Austen Lane. He'll face Thomas Petersen who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Don'Tale Mayes and is now 2-2 in the UFC. I was skeptical about how Petrino would look at heavyweight, but he weighed in at 249 pounds and looked like a legit heavyweight. However, beating Lane isn't that impressive, but he did what he was supposed to do as a -600 favorite. Petersen is a good test because he's an experienced wrestler with powerful striking. Petrino will be the faster and more athletic fighter and he could catch Petersen with something like Shamil Gaziev did, but I like Petersen to pull the upset off in hostile territory. I think Petrino will struggle with the wrestling of Petersen, both offensively and defensively.

PREDICTION: Thomas Petersen by DEC

Beatriz Mesquita (-600) vs. Irina Alekseeva (+440):

Beatriz Mesquita is undefeated at 5-0 and will be making her UFC debut. All five of her wins are by finish, three by submission. She faces Irina Alekseeva who has lost two straight unanimous decisions to Klaudia Sygula and Melissa Mullins after submitting Stephanie Egger via kneebar in the first round in her UFC debut. Mesquita is very green as an MMa fighter, but she's an elite submission grappler. Her wrestling and striking are still works in progress so there's a scenario where she struggles to take Alekseeva down and is forced to strike where she's not comfortable. Alekseeva comes from a judo background so striking is not a strength of hers either. She's physical and powerful, but at some point Mesquita is going to get this fight on the ground and find the submission inside two rounds.

PREDICTION: Beatriz Mesquita by 1st RD SUB

Stewart Nicoll (+100) vs. Lucas Rocha (-120):

Stewart Nicoll lost his UFC debut to Jesus Aguilar by first round guillotine choke and then pulled out of a fight with Rei Tsuruya due to injury in February so he hasn't fought since August of 2024. He'll take on Lucas Rocha who lost by second round submission in his UFC debut to Clayton Carpenter. Nicoll wants to take the fight to the ground where he'll hunt for submissions or attack with ground and pound, while Rocha likely wants to keep this fight on the feet where he's more dangerous. I'll go with Nicoll because we know he wants to grapple and Rocha struggled in the grappling against Carpenter.

PREDICTION: Stewart Nicoll by 2nd RD SUB

Julia Polastri (-535) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (+400):

Julia Polastri is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Loopy Godinez and is now 1-2 in the UFC. She'll take on Karolina Kowalkiewicz who has lost two straight to Denise Gomes and Iasmin Lucindo after rattling off four straight wins. Honestly, I thought Kowalkiewicz retired and wouldn't be surprised if she lays the gloves down after this one, win or lose. Polastri and Kowalkiewicz are both strikers by trade, but outside of experience, all the advantages lie with Polastri. She's younger, more powerful and has better durability.

PREDICTION: Julia Polastri by DEC

Luan Lacerda (-310) vs. Saimon Oliveira (+250):

In the opening prelim of the night, Luan Lacerda faces Saimon Oliveira in a battle of Brazilian bantamweights. Lacerda is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn't fought in over two years since losing by second round ground and pound stoppage to Da'Mon Blackshear. Oliveira is 0-3 in the UFC and coming off a first round knockout loss to David Martinez. All ten of Lacerda's wins are by submission, but he might be able to pick up his first knockout here as Oliveira isn't very durable, especially to the body. Neither of these guys are great strikers, but Oliveira is a bit wild so he's dangerous. Lacerda seems like the better grappler as Oliveira likes to jump for the guillotine choke and fish for submissions off his back. Oliveira badly missed weight for this fight and can't make weigh more than 155 pounds on fight night so he either badly botched his weight cut or is injured. Either way, he's not in top shape so I'm going with Lacerda to use superior grappling to get the win.

PREDICTION: Luan Lacerda by DEC

UFC RIO TICKET

SATURDAY OCTOBER 11TH

MAIN CARD:

Charles Oliveira +100 (1u)

Oliveira DEC +650 (0.2u)

Montel Jackson DEC +100 (0.5u)

Joel Alvarez/Michael Aswell -155 (1.55u)

Alvarez KO/TKO +130 (0.5u)

Mario Pinto +100 (0.5u)

PRELIMS:

Clayton Carpenter +110 (0.5u)

Thomas Petersen +230 (0.5u)

Petersen DEC +600 (0.25u)

Beatriz Mesquita SUB -130 (1.3u)

Stewart Nicoll +100 (0.5u)

Nicoll ITD +240 (0.25u)

Luan Lacerda/Saimon Oliveira over 1.5 rounds -140 (0.7u)