UFC Perth: Ulberg vs. Reyes Saturday 9/27

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Noche): -3.7u

2025 YTD: -20.73u

Carlos Ulberg (-240) vs. Dominick Reyes (+19:

In the main event, Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes meet in a five round light heavyweight bout. Ulberg has won eight straight since dropping his UFC debut to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Ulberg has won two straight unanimous decisions over Jan Blachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir. Prior to that, he had five straight finishes, four by first round knockout. Reyes has bounced back from a four fight losing streak where he was knocked out in three straight fights to win his last three fights, all by knockout. Ulberg is a strong kickboxer that has displayed knockout power, but also the ability to fight patiently and win decisions if need be. Reyes is a solid striker as well, but I still do have concerns about his durability after those three consecutive knockout losses. I like Ulberg in this matchup because he's a more technical striker and has more proven durability.

PREDICTION: Carlos Ulberg by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Jimmy Crute (-225) vs. Ivan Erslan (+185):

In the co-main event, Jimmy Crute faces Ivan Erslan in a light heavyweight bout. Crute is coming off a first round submission win via armbar over Marcin Prachnio. It was his first win since October of 2020. Erslan is 0-2 since joining the UFC. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Navajo Stirling after dropping a split decision to Ion Cutelaba in his UFC debut. I'm a big fan of Crute, but he's a very frustrating fighter to back. He has a relentless ground game, but he's reckless on the feet and I worry about his cardio. Erslan is a power puncher so I'm nervous about him hurting Crute, but Erslan just gave up three takedowns to Navajo Stirling who is a kickboxer. If Stirling can get takedowns, Crute certainly can as well and Crute is a much better finisher on the ground. Crute gets this fight to the ground quickly and gets a finish, most likely by submission.

PREDICTION: Jimmy Crute by 1st RD SUB

Jack Jenkins (-290) vs. Ramon Taveras (+235):

Jack Jenkins is coming off a third round submission loss to Gabriel Santos. He'll take on Ramon Taveras who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Davey Grant after avenging his controversial loss to Serhiy Sidey on the Contender Series in his UFC debut. Tavares will be moving up to featherweight for this fight. Jenkins is best as a striker, but he has an underrated wrestling game. Tavares is best as a boxer, but Jenkins has a strong kicking game and that's bad for a fighter like Tavares who relies on his boxing. I like Jenkins' pace and durability and see him chopping away at Taveras' legs and potentially mixing in takedowns. I'm not going to predict another leg kick TKO finish by Jenkins so decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Jack Jenkins by DEC

Jake Matthews (-380) vs. Neil Magny (+300):

Jake Matthews is coming off a first round submission win over Chidi Njokuani in just over a minute and has now won four of his last five. He takes on Neil Magny who is coming off a second round stoppage of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos that snapped a two fight losing streak where he was knocked out in the first round in both fights. Magny will have a four inch height and seven inch reach advantage, while Matthews is seven years younger. Matthews has always been an interesting fighter to get a read on. He joined the UFC at around 21 years old and beat lower level competition, but struggled when ever given a step up in opposition. The potential has always been there, but I think we're finally seeing it materialize. Matthews is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt so his grappling has always been strong, but he's developed a pretty solid striking game. Magny is just your standard gatekeeper so this is a good test for Matthews. Magny is a well-rounded fighter, but his best weapon is his cardio. He has broken many fighters using that cardio throughout his career, but I don't see Matthews being easily broken in this matchup. Matthews is a better striker, wrestler and submission grappler. Magny has had issues with strong grapplers, but Matthews doesn't look to wrestle too much. I think this will be mainly a striking battle so Matthews by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Jake Matthews by DEC

Tom Nolan (-145) vs. Charlie Campbell (+120):

Tom Nolan was originally supposed to face Evan Elder, but Elder suffered a leg injury so in steps Charlie Campbell. Nolan was knocked out by Nikolas Motta in his UFC debut, but he's won three straight since, the last two by unanimous decision. Campbell is 2-0 in the UFC with a first round knockout of Alex Reyes and a unanimous decision over Trevor Peek. This should be a fun scrap between two exciting lightweight strikers with questionable durability. Aside from getting knocked out by Motta, Nolan was also hurt in his win over Victor Martinez. Campbell suffered a knockout loss on the Contender Series after being moments away from finishing Chris Duncan. It wouldn't surprise me to see either fighter win by knockout, but I think Campbell is the better wrestler and grappler. I also have more faith in his durability so the pick will be Campbell by knockout inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Charlie Campbell by 1st RD KO/TKO

Navajo Stirling (-260) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (+210):

Navajo Stirling is 2-0 with unanimous decision wins over Tuco Tokkos and Ivan Erslan. He's undefeated at 7-0 with four wins by knockout and three by decision. He'll face Rodolfo Bellato who is coming off a no contest with Paul Craig after an awful acting job when Craig hit him with an illegal upkick. Prior to that, he fought to a majority draw with Jimmy Crute and scored a come from behind second round ground and pound stoppage of Ihor Potieria in his UFC debut. I have been thoroughly disappointed by Bellato's tenure in the UFC, while Stirling has looked pretty good. Bellato will have a grappling edge if he chooses that route, but I think he will choose to bang it out with Stirling. Bellato has power, but his striking defense is poor and so is his chin. Stirling is the more the technical striker and I'm expecting him to knock Bellato out inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Navajo Stirling by 1st RD KO/TKO

Andre Petroski (-180) vs. Cam Rowston (+150):

Andre Petroski had won three in a row, all by unanimous decision, but his winning streak was snapped in a unanimous decision loss to Edmen Shahbazyan. He faces Cam Rowston who will make his UFC debut after earning a UFC contract on the Contender Series just five weeks ago when he knocked out Brandon Holmes in the first round. Rowston had failed in his first appearance on the Contender Series, losing a unanimous decision to Torrez Finney. Petroski has the wrestling edge here and while Rowston was able to keep working back to his feet against Finney, Petroski is a much better control grappler. Petroski's cardio can be an issue at times so if he can't hold Rowston down, I could see Rowston beating him up on the feet. However, I do think Petroski will be able to rack up control time and smother Rowston long enough to hold on for a decision win.

PREDICTION: Andre Petroski by DEC

Josias Musasa (-155) vs. Colby Thicknesse (+130):

Josias Musasa was a huge favorite in his UFC debut, but was submitted in the first round by Carlos Vera. He earned his way to the UFC on the Contender Series with a split decision win over Otari Tanzilovi, but it had more to do with Tanzilovi's poor performance and failed cardio. Musasa is very raw and getting dropped by a kick from a base grappler in Vera was a very bad look. He'll take on Colby Thicknesse who also lost his UFC debut to Aleksandre Topuria. Thicknesse is 7-1 with four wins inside the distance. Seven of Musasa's eight wins have come by knockout so he has power, but those wins did come on the African regional scene against subpar competiotion. This fight will come down to his knockout power and physicality versus the wrestling and grappling of Thicknesse. The takedowns may not come easy for Thicknesse, but he'll have a decided advantage on the mat if he can get it there. I'll say Thicknesse survives a few rocky moments early, but eventually works this fight to the mat and either grinds out a decision or submits Musasa.

PREDICTION: Colby Thicknesse by 2nd RD SUB

Rolando Bedoya (+100) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (-120):

Rolando Bedoya has lost all three of his fights since joining the UFC, but he did go to split decision with Khaos Williams in his UFC debut. He faces Jamie Mullarkey who has lost two straight and three of his last four. He's been knocked out in all three losses, the last two both in the first round. It's been about a year and a half since Mauricio Ruffy knocked him out. If Bedoya had more punching power, I'd be way more confident in picking him because I love his volume. Mullarkey has more punching power, but his chin is obviously an issue. I'll side with Bedoya, but wouldn't be surprised if Mullarkey lands the bigger shots and earns the victory like Song Kenan did over Bedoya.

PREDICTION: Rolando Bedoya by DEC

Michelle Montague (-230) vs. Luana Carolina (+190):

Michelle Montague is undefeated at 6-0 and will be making her UFC debut after going 5-0 in PFL and 1-0 in the Bellator Champions Series. All six of her wins have come by rear naked choke submission, three in the first round. She fought at lightweight and featherweight before, but will be dropping down to bantamweight as her opponent Luana Carolina will make the move from flyweight to bantamweight. Carolina missed weight twice and had her last fight cancelled due to weight issues. Carolina has won three in a row, but this is a bad stylistic matchup here as she struggles with grapplers and she'll be giving up a strength advantage. Montague gets this one to the ground pretty quickly and picks up another submission win.

PREDICTION: Michelle Montague by 1st RD SUB

Brando Pericic (-225) vs. Elisha Ellison (+185):

These two were supposed to fight on the Contender Series, but it got rebooked for this card. Brando Pericic is 4-1 with four first round finishes, three by knockout, while Elisha Ellison is 5-1 with all his wins coming inside the first round, four by knockout. Pericic is 6'5", while Ellison is a shorter, much stockier heavyweight at just 5'11". Pericic trains at City Kickboxing and looks like he's a competent fighter, while Ellison doesn't look very good at all. Pericic gets this done in the first round.

PREDICTION: Brando Pericic by 1st RD KO/TKO

Alexia Thainara (-240) vs. Loma Lookboonmee (+195):

Opening up the card is a women's strawweight bout between Alexia Thainara and Loma Lookboonmee. Thainara is coming off first round rear naked choke over Molly McCann in her UFC debut. She is 12-1 with eight wins by submission and four by decision. Lookboonmee has won four straight and is 7-2 in the UFC with her losses coming to Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez. Lookboonmee is better suited to be fighting at atomweight, but that division doesn't exist in the UFC. She's always giving up size to her opponents and has come out victorious more often than not, but Thainara is a rough matchup for her. Lookboonmee is a good clinch fighter, but Thainara is the better takedown artist and a superior grappler. Thainara locks up a submission inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Alexia Thainara by 2nd RD SUB

UFC PERTH TICKET

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 27TH

MAIN CARD:

Jimmy Crute/Jack Jenkins -105 (1.05u)

Crute ITD -110 (1.1u)

Jake Matthews/Navajo Stirling -135 (1.35u)

Charlie Campbell +120 (0.5u)

PRELIMS:

Navajo Stirling ITD +100 (0.5u)

Andre Petroski -180 (0.9u)

Colby Thicknesse +130 (0.5u)

Thicknesse SUB +650 (0.2u)

Rolando Bedoya +100 (0.5u)

Alexia Thainara/Michelle Montague +105 (1u)

Montague ITD +140 (0.5u)

Brando Pericic KO/TKO -160 (0.8u)

Thainara SUB +300 (0.25u)