UFC Paris: Imavov vs. Borralho Saturday 9/6

The UFC is heading to Paris, France with another early start of 9am on the West Coast and noon on the East Coast.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Shanghai): +3.9u

2025 YTD: -16.03u

Caio Borralho (-130) vs. Nassourdine Imavov (+110):

In the main event, Caio Borralho takes on Nassourdine Imavov in a five round middleweight bout that could decide the next number one contender for Khamzat Chimaev's UFC middleweight title. Borralho is 7-0 in the UFC and coming off a five round unanimous decision win over Jared Cannonier. Imavov has won four straight and is 8-2 overall in the UFC. He's coming off a second round knockout of former UFC middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. This is a tightly lined fight and deservedly so, but I do lean towards the Borralho side. The striking should be very competitive, but Borralho is the better wrestler and grappler and I favor him in the cardio department as well. Borralho by decision will be the pick.

PREDICTION: Caio Borralho by DEC

Mauricio Ruffy (-150) vs. Benoit Saint Denis (+130):

In the co-main event, Mauricio Ruffy takes on local favorite Benoit Saint Denis in a lightweight bout. Ruffy is 3-0 in the UFC and coming off a highlight reel first round spinning heel kick knockout of King Green. Saint Denis is coming off a second round submission win via arm triangle choke over Kyle Prepolec that snapped a two fight losing streak to Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. Ruffy is a flashy striker, but I don't love his low volume approach. However, all Saint Denis knows how to do is pressure so Ruffy should have plenty of opportunities to land on Saint Denis. The grappling is the interesting part because Saint Denis is a relentless wrestler and grappler, while Ruffy's grappling has been untested since entering the UFC. I'm going to side with Saint Denis here as he's aggressive with body kicks and should put Ruffy on the back foot and allow him to get his grappling going. Saint Denis finds the finish, likely by submission, inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Benoit Saint Denis by 1st RD SUB

Modestas Bukauskas (-325) vs. Paul Craig (+260):

Modestas Bukauskas has won three straight and five of six since returning to the UFC, but I'll admit he didn't deserve the split decision win over Ion Cutelaba in his last bout. He'll take on Paul Craig who is coming off a first round no contest with Rodolfo Bellato who pulled a off a ridiculous acting job after Craig landed an illegal upkick. Prior to that, Craig lost five of six with his lone win being a second round ground and pound stoppage of Andre Muniz. Never been high on Bukauskas, but as long as he doesn't willingly grapple with Craig, I don't see how he loses. Craig is a dangerous submission grappler, but he has very little striking skill or offensive wrestling. Bukauskas could put the pressure on Craig and blow him out on the feet, but I'm expecting a more cautious approach so I'm leaning towards him winning a decision.

PREDICTION: Modestas Bukauskas by DEC

Mason Jones (-130) vs. Bolaji Oki (+110):

Mason Jones returned to the UFC earlier this year and picked up a unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens. He'll face Bolaji Oki who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Michael Aswell and has won two of three since joining the UFC. Oki has more power than Jones, but Jones has the better volume and durability. Jones should have a decent wrestling and grappling edge here and I expect him to fall back on it like he did in the Stephens fight.

PREDICTION: Mason Jones by DEC

Axel Sola (-130) vs. Rhys McKee (+110):

Axel Sola will be making his UFC debut this weekend as he takes on Rhys McKee. Sola is undefeated at 10-0-1 and was most recently the Ares FC lightweight champion. This will be his first fight at welterweight since December of 2022. McKee is coming off a first round doctor stoppage win over Daniel Frunza that snapped a two fight losing streak. Sola and McKee are both solid strikers, but I like the power of Sola more. I don't expect a lot of wrestling or grappling, but Sola will have the edge there if he pursues it. I'll say Sola picks up a decision win in front of his countrymen.

PREDICTION: Axel Sola by DEC

William Gomis (-265) vs. Robert Ruchala (+215):

William Gomis is looking to get back in the win column after losing a split decision to Hyder Amil. Gomis had won his first four fights in the UFC and now he welcomes UFC newcomer Robert Ruchala to the UFC. Ruchala is 11-1 with six wins inside the distance and was the featherweight champion in KSW. I hate Gomis' style but it's been effective for him and should work well against Ruchala who will play right into Gomis' low volume striking approach. Gomis also has wrestling and grappling upside as Ruchala is not a great grappler. Gomis by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: William Gomis by DEC

Oumar Sy (-500) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+380):

Oumar Sy is looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career to Alonzo Menifield as he faces Brendson Ribeiro. Ribeiro is coming off a first round knockout loss to Azamat Murzakanov after winning two straight. Sy had a disappointing performance against Menifield, but the UFC is clearly looking to get him back on track against Ribeiro. Ribeiro's best chance to win comes on the feet so Sy should be looking to take him down and either pound him out or submit him inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Oumar Sy by 1st RD KO/TKO

Ante Delija (+100) vs. Marcin Tybura (-120):

Ante Delija was supposed to make his UFC debut against Ciryl Gane back in October of 2020, but contractual issues came up and Delija instead compiled an 8-3 record in the PFL. Now he faces Marcin Tybura in a rematch from 2015 where Tybura scored a first round win due to Delija suffering a leg injury. Tybura is coming off a unanimous decision win over Mick Parkin and has won three of his last four. This is a pretty evenly matched fight as evidenced by the betting line. Delija has power, but Tybura has shown pretty good durability lately, only losing by knockout once in the last six years and that was by Tom Aspinall. Neither has a big wrestling edge, but Tybura is the better submission grappler. PFL and Bellator fighters haven't fared too well in the UFC so give me Tybura by decision.

PREDICTION: Marcin Tybura by DEC

Kaue Fernandes (-200) vs. Harry Hardwick (+165):

Kaue Fernandes was originally supposed to face Fares Ziam, but a death in Ziam's family led to his withdrawal so now he will face UFC newcomer Harry Hardwick who takes the fight on just four days notice and up a weight class. Hardwick was the reigning Cage Warriors featherweight champion with a record of 13-3. Fernandes has won two straight after losing his UFC debut to Marc Diakiese. Most recently, he pulled off a big upset unanimous decision victory over Guram Kutateladze. Both Fernandes and Hardwick prefer to strike with Fernandes having a strong kicking game, while Hardwick has the better boxing. It's a pretty even matchup, but I do have to lean towards Fernandes due to the short notice and weight move for Hardwick.

PREDICTION: Kaue Fernandes by DEC

Sam Patterson (-190) vs. Trey Waters (+160):

Sam Patterson was brutally knocked out in his UFC debut by Yanal Ashmouz, but has bounced back with three straight first round finishes over Yohan Lainesse, Kiefer Crosbie and Danny Barlow. He takes on Trey Waters who has won back to back unanimous decisions over Josh Quinlan and Billy Ray Goff since joining the UFC. This is a very interesting fight as Patterson and Waters are both tall, lanky welterweights so neither will enjoy the height and reach advantage they always have. Patterson's striking defense is a big concern and I thought for sure he was going to get knocked out by Barlow, but instead it was Patterson who came away with the first round knockout. Patterson definitely has striking skills, but I trust Waters' durability more and Patterson isn't a great offensive wrestler. Patterson is a more dangerous submission grappler, but it may be a struggle to get this fight to the ground. Waters should be able to keep this fight upright and eventually land something big on Patterson's chin.

PREDICTION: Trey Waters by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Brad Tavares (-220) vs. Robert Bryczek (+180):

Brad Tavares is coming off a unanimous decision win over Gerald Meerschaert, but prior to that had lost four of five with his lone win coming over the corpse of Chris Weidman. He takes on Robert Bryczek who lost a unanimous decision to Ihor Potieria in his only UFC fight so far. Bryczek hasn't fought since February of 2024 and pulled out of a fight with Christian Leroy Duncan in July of 2024. Tavares is on the tail end of his career, but he's still a solid fighter. His durability may be fading, but I was not impressed at all with Bryczek in his UFC debut. I expect Tavares to win a slow paced striking affair.

PREDICTION: Brad Tavares by DEC

Andreas Gustafsson (-130) vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov (+110):

Andreas Gustafsson had a successful UFC debut, bloodying and battering Khaos Williams for a unanimous decision win. Now he faces Rinat Fakhretdinov who is 5-0-1 in the UFC and coming off a controversial unanimous decision win over Carlos Leal. Fakhretdinov is a solid wrestler and capable striker, but his cardio is a concern and that's not the deficiency you want to have against a guy like Gustafsson. Fakhretdinov probably scores a few takedowns early, but he'll struggle to keep Gustafsson down and Gustaffson is going to push a pace that Fakhretdinov won't be able to handle. Gustafsson loves to fight in the clinch and he will attack with punches, elobows and knees. Gustafsson by decision is the pick with a good possibility of a late stoppage.

PREDICTION: Andreas Gustafsson by DEC

Sam Hughes (-345) vs. Shauna Bannon (+275):

Opening up the early prelims is a women's strawweight bout between Sam Hughes and Shauna Bannon. Hughes has won back to back split decisions over Stephanie Luciano and Victoria Dudakova. She's 5-2 in her last seven fights after starting her UFC run with three straight losses. Bannon has won two straight after losing her UFC debut to Bruna Brasil. She's coming off a second round submission win via armbar over Puja Tomar. Bannon is the better technical striker, but Hughes is the better wrestler and grappler. Hughes excels in making fights ugly, but I would favor Bannon if she can keep this at kicking range. I'm used to backing Hughes as an underdog, especially when she has a cardio edge, but that's not the case here. I do expect her to win, but the line is too wide to invest in.

PREDICTION: Sam Hughes by DEC

UFC PARIS TICKET

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 6TH

MAIN CARD:

Caio Borralho -130 (1.3u)

Benoit Saint Denis +130 (0.5u)

Saint Denis ITD +250 (0.3u)

Modestas Bukauskas/Paul Craig over 1.5 rounds -145 (1.45u)

Bukauskas DEC +300 (0.5u)

Mason Jones -130 (0.65u)

Axel Sola -130 (0.65u)

William Gomis DEC +100 (1u)

PRELIMS:

Oumar Sy ITD -150 (1.5u)

Marcin Tybura -120 (0.6u)

Tybura DEC +240 (0.25u)

Trey Waters +160 (0.5u)

Waters KO +400 (0.25u)

Brad Tavares DEC +100 (0.5u)

Andreas Gustafsson -130 (0.65u)

Gustafsson RD3 +1200 (0.1u)