UFC Noche: Lopes vs. Silva Saturday 9/13

It's Mexican Independence weekend so the UFC is running their annual Noche UFC card. It has a great main event and the undercard is filled with young Latin fighters.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Paris): -1.7u

2025 YTD: -17.73u

Jean Silva (-245) vs. Diego Lopes (+200):

In the main event, Jean Silva faces Diego Lopes in a five round featherweight bout. Jean Silva has won five straight, all by finish, since joining the UFC. He's coming off a second round submission of Bryce Mitchell where he choked Mitchell unconscious with a ninja choke. Lopes is coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski for the vacant UFC featherweight championship. Prior to that, he had won five straight, three by first round finish. Silva and Lopes are both exciting featherweights so I'm really looking forward to this one. The striking should be really fun, but I give the edge to Silva who is not as reckless as Lopes. The grappling edge goes to Lopes, but he is not a good wrestler, offensively or defensively. I trust Silva more on the feet, but Lopes is pretty durable so I think this one goes all five rounds.

PREDICTION: Jean Silva by DEC

Rob Font (-120) vs. David Martinez (+100):

In the co-main event, Rob Font will now face David Martinez in a bantamweight bout after Raul Rosas Jr. had to pull out. Martinez was originally supposed to face Carlos Vera and then Quang Le on this card. Font is coming off a split decision win over Jean Matsumoto for his second straight win. Martinez had a successful UFC debut earlier this year, knocking out Saimon Oliveira in the first round. Martinez is 12-1 with ten wins by knockout and two by decision. Martinez is a promising prospect, but making the jump to fighting a veteran like Font is probably too much, too soon. Font is a skilled striker and has a ton more experience, but his durability is concerning. He gets hurt a lot lately so it wouldn't surprise if Martinez hurt him and swung a round or two, but I have to side with Font here.

PREDICTION: Rob Font by DEC

Jared Gordon (-220) vs. Rafa Garcia (+180):

Jared Gordon is coming off a big first round knockout of Thiago Moises and could realistically be on a five fight winning streak if the decisions against Nasrat Haqparast and Paddy Pimblett went his way. He takes on Rafa Garcia who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Vinc Pichel and has won three of his last four. Gordon is a well-rounded fighter, but his grappling is definitely his biggest strength. Garcia is your typical wrestle-boxer. It's a competitive fight, but Gordon is the quicker fighter and he has great cardio so Gordon is the pick.

PREDICTION: Jared Gordon by DEC

Kelvin Gastelum (-230) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+190):

Kelvin Gastelum is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Joe Pyfer and has lost four of his last six and is just 3-7 in his last ten fights. He'll take on Dustin Stoltzfus who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Nursulton Ruziboev and is just 3-6 in the UFC. I've said it a thousand times that Gastelum should be fighting at welterweight, not middleweight but he just doesn't have the discipline. Gastelum has been fighting the best of the best in both divisions for a long time so he gets a step down in competition in Stoltzfus. Stoltzfus is best as a grappler, but Gastelum is a far better striker and more durable. Gastelum should cruise in this fight and I'm surprised he's not a bigger favorite.

UPDATE

Gastelum missed weight and while I'm not as confident now, I still think he wins because he's a weight bully and going to have a big size advantage over Stoltzfus.

PREDICTION: Kelvin Gastelum by DEC

Alexander Hernandez (+100) vs. Diego Ferreira (-120):

Alexander Hernandez is coming off an impressive first round knockout of Chase Hooper just four weeks ago at UFC 319. He's won three straight, but his decision wins over Kurt Holobaugh and Austin Hubbard could have went the other way. He faces Diego Ferreira who was supposed to fight King Green at UFC 319, but Green had an injury and the fight was cancelled. Ferreira is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Grant Dawson that snapped a two fight win streak. I'm not an Alexander Hernandez guy and that cost me dearly against Hooper, but I'm going back to the well and fading him. Ferreira is a more dangerous striker than Hooper and he's also an accomplished Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt. His cardio can be an issue at times, but Hernandez has his own cardio issues as well. Ferreira struggles with strong wrestlers, but that's not Hernandez's game. I'm expecting this fight to be mostly striking with Ferreira taking over the latter part of the fight.

PREDICTION: Diego Ferreira by DEC

Santiago Luna (-135) vs. Quang Le (+115):

Santiago Luna will be making his UFC debut on short notice after David Martinez who was originally set to face Quang Le was rebooked to face Rob Font in the co-main event. Luna is undefeated at 6-0 and is only 21 years. All six of his wins have come by finish, four by submission. His last two fights have come at featherweight, but this will be a bantamweight bout. Le is coming off a second round submission of Gaston Bolanos after losing his first two fights in the UFC. Luna looks to have solid wrestling, good power in his hands and submission grappling skills. Le is the right level of opponent for Luna's debut because he's a fighter with competent striking and wrestling that can test Luna at this level. I'll pick Luna to win, but I'm not very confident in the pick.

PREDICTION: Santiago Luna by DEC

Dusko Todorovic (-425) vs. Jose Medina (+330):

Dusko Todorovic has lost three straight, but his unanimous decision loss to Zach Reese last time was debateable. He's now 3-6 in the UFC with four losses in the first round, three by knockout and the other by knee injury. He'll take on Jose Medina who is 0-2 in the UFC and got his doors blown off by Ateba Gautier in the first round. Todorovic has some durability concerns, but Medina is absolutely not a UFC caliber fighter. He has the obvious puncher's chance facing Todorovic, but I expect Todorovic to wrestle pretty quickly and he should absolutely maul Medina on the ground.

PREDICTION: Dusko Todorovic by 1st RD KO/TKO

Joaquim Silva (+110) vs. Claudio Puelles (-130):

Joaquim Silva was supposed to fight Rafa Garcia earlier this year, but he pulled out with an injury and now hasn't fought since a unanimous decision loss to Drakkar Klose in May of 2024. Silva won his first three fights in the UFC, but has lost five of his last eight. He'll face Claudio Puelles who has lost two straight and hasn't fought since a split decision loss to Fares Ziam in February of 2024. Prior to that, he had won five straight, three by kneebar submission. Puelles has some dangerous grappling skills, but his flaws have been on display in his last two fights. Hooker embarrassed him and his lack of striking, while Ziam still came out on top after Puelles landed seven takedowns because Puelles could not land any damage. Silva has the striking edge, especially in the power department. He's a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but just prefers to throw big power shots on the feet. Puelles will be looking to take this fight to the ground, but he needs to accumulate some damage or large stretches of control. Otherwise, Silva's damage landed on the feet will earn him the win. As the betting line suggests, this one will be razor close, but I lean towards Silva.

PREDICTION: Joaquim Silva by DEC

Tatiana Suarez (-440) vs. Amanda Lemos (+340):

Tatiana Suarez is looking to bounce back from her first loss as she takes on Amanda Lemos. Suarez lost a lopsided five round unanimous decision to UFC strawweight champion Weili Zhang and now finds herself buried on the prelims. She won her first seven fights in the UFC with five stoppages. Lemos is coming off a unanimous decision win over Iasmin Lucindo and has compiled a 9-4 record in the UFC. Suarez has a strong wrestling pedigree, but she does struggle and look lost if she can't impose her will on her opponents. Lemos is the far more dangerous striker, but I expect Suarez to get back on track as she uses her wrestling and picks up another stoppage.

PREDICTION: Tatiana Suarez by 2nd RD SUB

Luis Gurule (-190) vs. Jesus Aguilar (+160):

Luis Gurule is also looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career as he was knocked out in the second round by Ode Osbourne in his UFC debut earlier this year. Gurule is now 10-1 with six wins inside the distance, five by knockout. He faces Jesus Aguilar who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rafael Estevam after winning three straight. Aguilar doesn't have much striking, but he is a dangerous submission grappler. Gurule has the edge in striking and the wrestling skills to decide where he wants this fight. Gurule by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Luis Gurule by DEC

Zachary Reese (-230) vs. Sedriques Dumas (+190):

Zachary Reese is coming off a highly debateable unanimous decision win over Dusko Todorovic and has won three of his last four after getting slammed on his head and knocked out in his UFC debut by Cody Brundage. He takes on Sedriques Dumas in a bout that was originally scheduled for January this year. Dumas is coming off a first round knockout loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk and has had some legal troubles lately. He's 3-3 in the UFC with all three wins by unanimous decision and all three losses by finish, two by first round knockout. Dumas is not very good and he's likely spent more time in jail than training for fights. Reese hasn't turned out to be anything special either, but he seems more skilled than Dumas. I had concerns about Reese fighting effectively past a round, but he's picked up two decisions in his last two wins so that concern has been put to bed. He should be able to mix up his striking and wrestling and win a clear decision or put another stoppage loss on Dumas' record.

PREDICTION: Zachary Reese by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Alessandro Costa (-395) vs. Alden Coria (+310):

Alessandro Costa was originally supposed to face Edgar Chairez, but Chairez suffered a leg injury so in steps Alden Coria on short notice for his UFC debut. Coria is 10-3 with eight wins inside the distance. Costa is 2-2 in the UFC with both his wins coming by second round ground and pound stoppage. Most recently he defeated Kevin Borjas in May of 2024. Costa is one of the bigger favorites on the card, but this line seems a bit wide. Coria is a fun flyweight prospect coming out of the same camp as Joshua Van. Now I'm not saying he's another Van, but he does have promise. I'm not confident enough to call the upset, but this one will play out a lot closer than the odds suggest.

PREDICTION: Alessandro Costa by DEC

Alice Pereira (-150) vs. Montserrat Rendon (+125):

Alice Pereira is undefeated at 6-0 with five wins inside the distance. She is only 19 years old, while her opponent Montserrat Rendon is almost double her age at 36 years old. Pereira has not been fighting good competition so it's a bit early to be fighting in the UFC, but Rendon is one of the lower level bantamweights on the roster. For the sake of a pick, I'll go with Pereira to be the better striker and have the wrestling to stop Rendon's takedowns, but won't be surprised if Pereira is just not physical enough to handle Rendon and gets grinded on.

PREDICTION: Alice Pereira by DEC

Daniil Donchenko (-210) vs. Rodrigo Sezinando (+170):

Kicking off the card is the welterweight finale of the latest season of "The Ultimate Fighter" between Daniil Donchenko and Rodrigo Sezinando. Donchenko is 11-2 with nine wins inside the distance, seven by knockout and has spent a majority of his career at lightweight and even a little bit at featherweight. Sezinando is 8-1 with seven wins inside the distance, four by knockout. Donchenko is the more dangerous striker, but Sezinando can hold his own. I'd give a healthy grappling edge to Sezinando and because of that grappling edge, he's going to my pick.

PREDICTION: Rodrigo Sezinando by DEC

UFC NOCHE TICKET

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 13TH

MAIN CARD:

Jean Silva/Tatiana Suarez -140 (1.4u)

Rob Font -120 (0.6u)

Diego Ferreira -120 (0.6u)

Ferreira RD3 +1200 (0.1u)

PRELIMS:

Dusko Todorovic/Luis Gurule -115 (1.15u)

Todorovic ITD +140 (1u)

Tatiana Suarez ITD -110 (0.55u)

Zachary Reese ITD -160 (0.8u)

Rodrigo Sezinando +170 (0.5u)

Sezinando DEC +550 (0.2u)