UFC Nashville: Lewis vs. Teixeira Saturday 7/12

The UFC takes the show on the road again as they head to Nashville, Tennessee with a fun card with a few heavy favorites.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 317) +0.85u

2025 YTD: -10.23u

Tallison Teixeira (-325) vs. Derrick Lewis (+260):

In the main event, we have a potential five round heavyweight banger between Tallison Teixeira and Derrick Lewis. Teixeira is undefeated at 8-0 with all eight of his wins coming in the first round, seven by knockout. He's coming off a 35 second knockout of Justin Tafa in his UFC debut. Lewis hasn't fought in over a year since knocking out Rodrigo Nascimento in the third round. He was supposed to fight Jhonata Diniz in November, but got sick on fight night and had to pull out. Prior to defeating Nascimento, Lewis had lost four of his last five. Teixeira will enjoy a four inch height and reach advantage as well as being fifteen years younger than Lewis. This is a big step up for Teixeira, but I think he gets it done. Lewis will always be live for the knockout, but Teixeira should be too quick for him early and Lewis' durability has been fading. Teixeira has never been out of the first round so things could get interesting, but I think this one is over early.

PREDICTION: Tallison Teixeira by 1st RD KO/TKO

Gabriel Bonfim (-425) vs. Stephen Thompson (+330):

In the co-main event, Gabriel Bonfim will face Stephen Thompson in a welterweight bout. Bonfim is coming off a second round submission win over Khaos Williams and has won four of five since joining the UFC, three by submission. Thompson is coming off a third round knockout loss to Joaquin Buckley and has lost four of his last five. Thompson is an experienced striker with his karate style, but he's not much of a threat on the ground. I'd expect Bonfim to be looking to wrestle and grapple here because even though Thompson is nearing the end of his career, his striking style is not easy to prepare for. Bonfim should dominate through grappling, but may not be able to find the finish.

PREDICTION: Gabriel Bonfim by DEC

Steve Garcia (-130) vs. Calvin Kattar (+110):

Steve Garcia is coming off a first round knockout of Kyle Nelson, his fifth straight knockout and sixth overall since joining the UFC. He takes on Calvin Kattar who has lost four straight and five of his last six. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Youssef Zalal. Garcia has a ton of power, but he likes to brawl and has defensive issues. Kattar doesn't have the same power, but he has crisp boxing especially that jab. If Garcia can't find the early knockout, which I don't think he will, Kattar is just going to box him up for three rounds and potentially finish Garcia if he gets too reckless.

PREDICTION: Calvin Kattar by DEC

Morgan Charriere (-260) vs. Nate Landwehr (+210):

Morgan Charriere is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Nathaniel Wood and has lost two of his last three. He's 2-2 in the UFC with a first round knockout of Manolo Zecchini and a second round knockout of Gabriel Miranda. He faces Nate Landwehr who is coming off a third round knockout loss to Doo Ho Choi and has lost two of his last three. Charriere is the far more technical fighter, but Landwehr is a dog and this fight will be in front of his home fans in Tennessee. If Charriere looks to wrestle he could have some success, but if not his low volume striking style isn't going to cut it against Landwehr's aggression and power. Give me the fan favorite and underdog in Landwehr by decision.

PREDICTION: Nate Landwehr by DEC

Vitor Petrino (-700) vs. Austen Lane (+500):

Vitor Petrino won his first four fights in the UFC, but he's lost two straight and now he's making the move to heavyweight as he takes on Austen Lane. Lane has lost three of four since joining the UFC and been knocked out in all three losses. Prior to that, he had won three straight, two by submission. Petrino actually weighed a couple more pounds than Lane so the move to heavyweight is looking good so far. Lane is definitely athletic being a former NFL player, but he's not a true fighter. Petrino isn't an active striker, but he has power and I see him getting a finish in the second round.

PREDICTION: Vitor Petrino by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Justin Tafa (-185) vs. Tuco Tokkos (+155):

Justin Tafa and Tuco Tokkos were supposed to fight two months ago, but Tafa had to withdraw so his light heavyweight debut had to be delayed. He's coming off a second round knockout of Sean Sheraf after losing three of his first four in the UFC. Tokkos is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Navajo Stirling and has lost two straight since joining the UFC. This is a very low level fight that comes down to how well Tafa's takedown defense holds up at light heavyweight. He has no ground skills so Tokkos could just smother him, but if Tafa keeps it standing, he'll batter Tokkos and eventually finish him. I'll pick Tafa, but I'm not confident at all.

PREDICTION: Justin Tafa by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Chris Curtis (-325) vs. Max Griffin (+260):

Chris Curtis is heading back to the welterweight division for the first time since July of 2021 and will compete at welterweight for the first time since joining the UFC. Curtis is on a two fight losing streak with both fights ending in controversial circumstances. He faces Max Griffin who is coming off a third round submission loss to Michael Chiesa and has lost three of his last five. Curtis has great takedown defense, sharp boxing and has a ton of volume. I don't see how Griffin has any success here. Curtis by lopsided decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Chris Curtis by DEC

Chidi Njokuani (-150) vs. Jake Matthews (+130):

Chidi Njokuani has won three straight since dropping down to the welterweight division and is coming off a second round knockout of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos earlier this year. He takes on Jake Matthews who has won two straight unanimous decisions over Francisco Prado and Phil Rowe. Matthews has been in the UFC forever, but just hasn't made any big improvements where I can pick him over Njokuani. Njokuani is the more dangerous striker and Matthews' wrestling isn't good enough so I see Njokuani using his length to beat up Matthews for three rounds.

PREDICTION: Chidi Njokuani by DEC

Eduarda Moura (-650) vs. Lauren Murphy (+470):

Eduarda Moura is coming off a unanimous decision win over Veronica Hardy as she moved up to the flyweight division after failing to make the strawweight limit in her first two UFC bouts. Now she'll face Lauren Murphy who hasn't fought since a January 2023 unanimous decision loss to Jessica Andrade. This is Murphy's retirement fight which almost always ends badly. Moura has shown to be an aggressive wrestler in the past, but that has also led to cardio issues. She should be able to dominate Murphy in the grappling, but if this becomes an extended striking fight, Murphy is tough as hell and will put up volume. I'll side with Moura, but the line is pretty wide and wouldn't go jamming her into parlays.

PREDICTION: Eduarda Moura by DEC

Kennedy Nzechukwu (-200) vs. Valter Walker (+165):

Kennedy Nzechukwu has won two straight, both by first round knockout, since moving up to the heavyweight division. He'll take on Valter Walker who has pulled off back to back first round heel hook submissions after dropping his UFC debut by unanimous decision to Lukasz Brzeski. I've seen some love for Walker this week, but I like Nzechukwu here. Walker doesn't have much of a striking game so Nzechukwu should get the better of him standing and just avoid going to the mat with him where Walker will surely try for another heel hook. Nzechukwu knocks him out midway through the fight.

PREDICTION: Kennedy Nzechukwu by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Mike Davis (-1100) vs. Mitch Ramirez (+700):

Mike Davis was once a promising prospect, but those days are far behind us after inactivity due to injuries. He's been in the UFC since 2019 and only fought six times. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Fares Ziam in a bizarre performance which saw Davis pull guard almost immediately and get outgrappled by a French kickboxer. That loss snapped a four fight winning streak. Now he's a massive favorite as he takes on Mitch Ramirez. Ramirez competed on the Contender Series, but was knocked out in the second round by Carlos Prates. He picked up a first round knockout in LFA and then got the short notice call to face Thiago Moises where he was finished by leg kicks in the third round. He's 8-2 with seven wins inside the distance, five by knockout. Davis is the more talented fighter here and should get back to his winning ways with a dominant decision win.

PREDICTION: Mike Davis by DEC

Fatima Kline (-1350) vs. Melissa Martinez (+800):

Fatima Kline is one of the best prospects in women's MMA and is coming off a second round mauling of Victoria Dudakova for her first UFC win. She ambitiously stepped up on short notice against Jasmine Jasudavicius in her UFC debut, but suffered her first career loss. Kline was a double champ at strawweight and flyweight in CFFC, but she couldn't handle the size and strength of Jasudavicius and is far more suited for strawweight in the UFC. She'll take on Melissa Martinez who is 1-1 in the UFC with a unanimous decision win over Alice Ardelean and a unanimous decision loss to Elise Reed. The loss to Reed is particularly concerning because Reed was able to land three takedowns and she's nowhere near the wrestler and grappler that Kline is. Kline is a massive favorite and I expect her to dominatethis fight wherever she wants and it likely comes on the mat inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Fatima Kline by 2nd RD SUB

UFC NASHVILLE TICKET

SATURDAY JULY 12TH

MAIN CARD:

Tallison Teixeira/Derrick Lewis under 1.5 rounds -190 (1.9u)

Gabriel Bonfim DEC +210 (0.5u)

Calvin Kattar +110 (0.5u)

Kattar DEC +450 (0.2u)

Nate Landwehr +210 (0.5u)

Landwehr DEC +400 (0.25u)

PRELIMS:

Chris Curtis/Kennedy Nzechukwu -105 (1.05u)

Chidi Njokuani -150 (0.75u)

Kennedy Nzechukwu ITD +130 (0.5u)

Fatima Kline ITD -115 (1.15u)