UFC Kansas City: Garry vs. Prates Saturday 4/26

After a week off, the UFC is back and heads to Kansas City with a very good card.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 314) +4.7u

2025 YTD: -3.46u

Ian Machado Garry (-155) vs. Carlos Prates (+130):

In the main event, Ian Machado Garry will take on Carlos Prates in a five round welterweight bout in a battle of rising prospects.  Garry is coming off the first loss of his career, a five round unanimous decision loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov.  He had won his first eight fights in the UFC and fifteen straight overall to start his career.  Prates has won four straight since joining the UFC, all by knockout.  He was originally supposed to fight Geoff Neal at UFC 314 two weeks ago, but was moved to this main event after Neal got injured.  I’ve been collectively trying to fade The Fighting Nerds camp (except for Caio Borralho) and the results have not been good!  This is definitely a difficult fight to break down, but I’m going to roll with Prates.  Garry proved he belonged with top welterweights in the Rakhmonov fight, but he did clearly lose the fight and I wasn’t too impressed with his performance against Michael “Venom” Page.  Garry had to rely on his grappling to win that one, but I wouldn’t expect him to continually have success doing that and Prates’ grappling is a mystery right now.  I also thought Jean Silva was going to struggle grappling with Bryce Mitchell and he choked him unconscious so I’m not going to assume Prates has no grappling because we’ve only seen him striking and knocking people out.  Garry is a good striker, but we’ve seen him hurt in the past and Prates definitely has power.  Garry theoretically has the cardio edge because Prates smokes multiple packs of cigarettes a day, but again it’s just another assumption that he might have weak cardio.  It’s a closely lined fight and I’ll take the shot on Prates as an underdog, but I hope this fight gets extended to the championship rounds so we get some answers about Prates.

PREDICTION:  Carlos Prates by DEC

Mingyang Zhang (-395) vs. Anthony Smith (+310):

In the co-main event, Mingyang Zhang will face Anthony Smith in his retirement fight.  Zhang has knocked out both Brendson Ribeiro and Ozzy Diaz in the first round since joining the UFC.  All eighteen of his wins have come inside the distance, twelve by knockout.  In fact, he’s only been to decision once in his 24 career fights.  Smith is coming off a second round stoppage loss to Dominick Reyes via ground and pound and has lost two straight and five of his last seven.  In his prime, I’d take a guy like Smith to give Zhang the vet lesson, but I can’t get behind Smith here with retirement looming.  Could I see Smith capitalizing on something and finding a submission? Sure.  Anything is possible, but I think it’s much more likely that Zhang hurts Smith early and puts him away in the first or early in the second round.

PREDICTION:  Mingyang Zhang by 1st RD KO/TKO

David Onama (-200) vs. Giga Chikadze (+165):

David Onama has won three straight and five of his last six since losing a short notice UFC debut to Mason Jones.  He’ll take on Giga Chikadze who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Arnold Allen and has lost two of his last three after winning seven straight to start his UFC career.  Chikadze is an experienced striker so it will be interesting to see how Onama approaches this fight.  Onama is a powerful and dangerous striker himself, but Chikadze is far more technical.  Onama has some wrestling and grappling upside and that’s something I think he should be looking to exploit against Chikadze.  I think Onama can win a striking based decision as well so he’ll be my pick.

PREDICTION:  David Onama by DEC

Michel Pereira (-140) vs. Abus Magomedov (+120):

Michel Pereira is coming off a fifth round ground and pound stoppage to Anthony Hernandez that snapped an eight fight winning streak. He'll take on Abus Magomedov who is coming off a third round submission of Brunno Ferreira and has won back to back fights after losing two straight to Caio Borralho and Sean Strickland. I'm seeing some love for Magomedov this week, but I like Pereira in this matchup. He's more athletic and explosive and has solid takedown defense. If he can push a hard pace, I believe he can break Magomedov who has cardio and durability issues. I think Pereira puts him away at the midpoint of the fight.

PREDICTION: Michel Pereira by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Randy Brown (-300) vs. Nicolas Dalby (+240):

Randy Brown is coming off a split decision loss to Bryan Battle that snapped a three fight winning streak. Brown has won seven of his last nine fights. He faces Nicolas Dalby who is coming off a split decision loss to Rinat Fakhretdinov that snapped a four fight winning streak that included a big upset win over Gabriel Bonfim. Dalby's best attribute is his ability to push a pace and break fighters with poor cardio. That is not an issue for Brown so I expect the fight to be competitive, but Brown should be able to edge it out using his length.

PREDICTION: Randy Brown by DEC

Ikram Aliskerov (-455) vs. Andre Muniz (+305):

Ikram Aliskerov won his first two fights in the UFC by first round knockout, but he took a major step up in competition against Robert Whittaker and suffered a first round knockout of his own.  He’ll face Andre Muniz who is coming off a split decision win over Jun Yong Park.  Prior to that, he suffered back to back finishes against Paul Craig and Brendan Allen.  This is the third time that the UFC has booked this match so it appears that the UFC is trying to get Aliskerov back on track.  Aliskerov is a strong wrestler, but he also has power in his hands.  Muniz is a very strong grappler, but he’s not a good striker or wrestler and has poor cardio.  Aliskerov is going to easily defend takedowns and beat up Muniz on the feet until he eventually stops him sometime in the first or second round.

PREDICTION:  Ikram Aliskerov by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Matt Schnell (-170) vs. Jimmy Flick (+140):

Matt Schnell has lost three straight and four of his last five. He's been finished in all four fights and the lone win in that stretch is a submission win over Sumudaerji after being badly hurt in that fight as well. He'll take on Jimmy Flick who has lost three of his last four since un-retiring and returning to the UFC. Two of Flick's three losses came by ground strikes and he's been finished with strikes six times overall in his career. All fifteen of his stoppage wins have come by submission. Steady money has come in on Flick and I agree with the movement because betting on Schnell as a favorite is not something I can get behind. Schnell has better boxing skills than Flick, but his chin is terrible. He's also a bad defensive wrestler with questionable grappling skills. He's a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, while Flick is a black belt so the grappling edge goes to Flick. Flick isn't a great wrestler, but he's aggressive in hunting for takedowns and Schnell just makes too many bad decisions that I think Flick can capitalize on. Give me Flick for the upset via submission.

PREDICTION: Jimmy Flick by 2nd RD SUB

Evan Elder (-205) vs. Gauge Young (+170):

Evan Elder was originally stepping in for Mitch Ramirez to face Ahmad Hassanzada, but after Hassanzada was arrested, he'll now face Gauge Young on a weeks notice. Elder lost his first two fights in the UFC, but has bounced back with two straight wins, most recently submitting Darrius Flowers via arm triangle choke in the second round. Elder should honestly be riding a three fight winning streak, but a doctor stoppage cost him the win against Nazim Sadykhov. Young was training for a fight next week so he'll be in fight shape. He competed on the Contender Series last year, but lost a unanimous decision to Quillan Salkilld. He bounced back with a second round knockout on the regional scene and now gets the shirt notice call to the UFC. He's 9-2 with seven wins inside the distance, six by knockout. Young doesn't seem like anything special and pretty much is just a lesser version of Elder. I expect Elder to win a competitive, but clear striking based decision.

PREDICTION: Evan Elder by DEC

Chris Gutierrez (-140) vs. John Castaneda (+120):

Chris Gutierrez and John Castaneda were originally supposed to fight in a 140 pound catchweight bout at UFC 313.  Castaneda wound up coming down with the flu and the fight was scrapped on fight day.  Gutierrez and Castaneda are both bantamweights, but this fight will take place in the featherweight division.  Gutierrez had a stretch where he was unbeaten in eight straight fights, but has gone 2-2 in his last four while Castaneda is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Daniel Marcos that snapped a two fight winning streak.  Gutierrez and Castaneda both like to strike with Gutierrez being absolutely lethal with his leg kicks.  Gutierrez does not defend takedowns well so that’s something that Castaneda should look to exploit and I’m going to lean towards the Castaneda side with his multiple paths to victory.

PREDICTION:  John Castaneda by DEC

Da'Mon Blackshear (-520) vs. Alatengheili (+390):

Da'Mon Blackshear is coming off a second round submission win via kimura over Cody Gibson and has won two straight, both by submission. All four of Blackshear's wins in the UFC have come by stoppage, three by submission. He takes on Alatengheili who is coming off a unanimous decision over Kleydson Rodrigues and has won three of his last four. I'm pretty confident in Blackshear here. He's a really strong grappler, but he also showed some improved striking in the Cody Stamann fight. Alatengheili is your typical wrestle-boxer, but outside of landing a big strike, I don't see him beating Blackshear. He could try to wrestle, but Blackshear will threaten with chokes. Instead, I see Blackshear scoring takedowns and eventually locking up some type of submission.

PREDICTION: Da'Mon Blackshear by 2nd RD SUB

Malcolm Wellmaker (-130) vs. Cameron Saaiman (+110):

Malcolm Wellmaker punched his ticket to the UFC on the Contender Series with a first round knockout. He's 8-0 with six wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He'll face Cameron Saaiman who has lost two straight after winning his first three in the UFC. This should be a fun striking battle between Wellmaker and Saaiman. Wellmaker may have more power in his hands, but I wouldn't say he's a brutal knockout puncher. They both have a good kicking game, but Saaiman should have an overall volume edge. I'm not sure how much grappling we'll see, but Saaiman is a pretty poor defensive wrestler so maybe Wellmaker can score a few takedowns. However, Saaiman has pretty good scrambling and don't see him being held down. This is a good step up for Wellmaker, but I'm going to side with Saaiman who is more experienced at this level and is still only 24 years old.

PREDICTION: Cameron Saaiman by DEC

Jaqueline Amorim (-750) vs. Polyana Viana (+525):

Jaqueline Amorim has won three straight since losing her UFC debut. Her last two wins over Vanessa Demopoulos and Cory McKenna have come by first round armbar although the Demopoulos stoppage was controversial as Amorim was grabbing the inside of the glove. Amorim is 9-1 overall with all nine wins inside the distance, seven by submission. She'll face Polyana Viana who has lost two straight and three of her last four. Amorim should smoke Viana on the mat here and rightfully so as such a big favorite. Amorim is a high level Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, while Viana is only a brown belt and has been finished on the ground in her last two fights. Amorim's cardio is a concern if the fight gets extended, but I don't see the fight lasting too long. Amorim should be able to submit Viana in the first round.

PREDICTION: Jaqueline Amorim by 1st RD SUB

Roberto Romero (-110) vs. Timothy Cuamba (-110):

Roberto Romero stepped up on short notice in his UFC debut going up a weight class to lightweight to face David Onama. Romero was unsuccessful, losing by unanimous decision, but he was impressive as a massive underdog. Now he's back at his normal weight class in the featherweight division and will now take on Timothy Cuamba. Cuamba is 0-2 in the UFC with a unanimous decision loss to Lucas Almeida and a split decision loss to Bolaji Oki. This is a pretty evenly matched fight and it reflects in the odds. Romero impressed me more in his debut than Cuamba has in his two fights as well as his Contender Series appearance. I like Romero's volume better and think that will be the deciding factor in this fight.

PREDICTION: Roberto Romero by DEC

Joselyn Edwards (-270) vs. Chelsea Chandler (+220):

In the opening prelim, Joselyn Edwards and Chelsea Chandler meet in the women's bantamweight division. Edwards is coming off a third round submission of Tamires Vidal that snapped a two fight losing streak. Chandler is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Yana Santos and has missed weight in her last two fights after dropping from featherweight to bantamweight. She's 2-2 in the UFC. This is an ugly fight, but I do lean towards the Edwards side. However, the line is a bit too wide for my liking. Both have defensive wrestling issues, but Edwards is the better striker and is more athletic, while Chandler just relies on physicality. She looked great against Julija Stoliarenko in her UFC debut, but has not looked impressive at all since. Chandler definitely could have grappling success here, but I'll pick Edwards even though it's hard to be terribly confident in her when she's in a lot of close decisions.

PREDICTION: Joselyn Edwards by DEC

UFC KANSAS CITY TICKET

SATURDAY APRIL 26TH

MAIN CARD:

Carlos Prates +130 (0.5u)

Prates DEC +800 (0.1u)

Zhang Mingyang/Anthony Smith under 1.5 rounds -180 (1.35u)

Michel Pereira -140 (1.4u)

Pereira ITD +150 (0.5u)

Ikram Aliskerov/Evan Elder -125 (1.25u)

Aliskerov KO/TKO -160 (0.8u)

PRELIMS:

Jimmy Flick +140 (0.5u)

Flick ITD +250 (0.3u)

John Castaneda +120 (0.5u)

Da'Mon Blackshear ITD +130 (0.5u)

Cameron Saaiman +110 (0.5u)

Jaqueline Amorim RD1 +140 (0.5u)