UFC Des Moines: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Saturday 5/3

The UFC is taking the show on the road to Des Moines, Iowa and is bringing a pretty solid card with them.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Kansas City) -3.05u

2025 YTD: -6.51u

Cory Sandhagen (-500) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (+380):

In the main event, Cory Sandhagen takes on Deiveson Figueiredo in a five round bantamweight bout. Sandhagen is coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov that snapped a three fight winning streak, while Figueiredo is coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Petr Yan that snapped a three fight winning streak as well.  I expect this fight to look very much like Figueiredo’s fight with Yan.  Sandhagen is a superior kickboxer and will be doubling up Figueiredo in strikes and should cruise to a decision.  Figueiredo may land a takedown or two early, but Sandhagen will work back to his feet and just drown him in volume.

PREDICTION:  Cory Sandhagen by DEC

Bo Nickal (-360) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+285):

In the co-main event, Bo Nickal will face the stiffest test of his career as he faces Reinier de Ridder.  Nickal is coming off a unanimous decision win over Paul Craig, the first of his career. He is 4-0 in the UFC with three finishes and 7-0 overall. De Ridder has won both his fights since joining the UFC, a third round submission of Gerald Meerschaert in his UFC debut and a first round submission of Kevin Holland.  Nickal is always hovering around a -1000 favorite, but now he’s the most betable he’s ever been thanks to the Craig fight.  De Ridder is a dangerous submission threat, but he’s not going to outwrestle Nickal and Nickal is the better striker, even at this stage of his career.  Like the Craig fight, I think Nickal will look to keep this standing and most likely wins by decision, although he could land a big shot on the feet.

PREDICTION:  Bo Nickal by DEC

Daniel Rodriguez (+120) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (-140):

Daniel Rodriguez is coming off a split decision win over Alex Morono that snapped a three fight losing streak. Prior to that skid, Rodriguez had won seven of his first eight fights in the UFC. He'll take on Santiago Ponzinibbio who is coming off a third round knockout of Carlston Harris. Prior to that, he had lost four of his last five with three by split decision.  Both of these guys are on the tail end of their careers, but I do slightly favor Rodriguez here.  Ponzinibbio probably has more power, but I think Rodriguez is more durable at this point and like his volume a bit more.  Neither guy really separates on volume so don’t be surprised with some very close scorecards.

PREDICTION:  Daniel Rodriguez by DEC

Montel Jackson (-230) vs. Daniel Marcos (+190):

Montel Jackson is coming off an eighteen second first round knockout of Da'Mon Blackshear that is aging very well now. He's won two straight by first round knockout and five straight overall. He'll face Daniel Marcos who is coming off a split decision win over Adrian Yanez and he's now 4-0 in the UFC and 17-0 overall.  Jackson will have a three inch height and six inch reach advantage over Marcos.  I’m expecting mostly a striking affair, but Jackson should have a wrestling edge if he chooses to go that way.  Marcos’ striking volume could give Jackson some problems, but Jackson’s reach advantage and power should help him edge it out in a close one.

PREDICTION:  Montel Jackson by DEC

Serhiy Sidey (-140) vs. Cameron Smotherman (+120):

Serhiy Sidey is coming off a split decision win over Garrett Armfield after losing a split decision to Ramon Taveras in his UFC debut. He takes on Cameron Smotherman who upset Jake Hadley by unanimous decision as a big underdog in his UFC debut. He is 12-4 overall with seven wins inside the distance, six by knockout.  Sidey has more weapons as a striker than Smotherman who is mainly a boxer, but Sidey is pretty poor defensively.  Sidey is more likely to grapple, but I don’t think his wrestling is that good.  I’ll go with Smotherman to land some big punches and potentially put Sidey away.

PREDICTION:  Cameron Smotherman by DEC

Mason Jones (-650) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+470):

Kicking off the main card is a matchup of two UFC veterans in Mason Jones and Jeremy Stephens who will be making their return to the Octagon.  Jones   went 1-2 with a no contest in his first UFC run before being released.  He returned to Cage Warriors and rattled off four straight wins, three by knockout.  Stephens last fought in the UFC in 2021, losing his last five fights in the promotion.  Then he went to PFL and went 1-2 before moving on to boxing and bare knuckle boxing where he most recently defeated fellow UFC veteran Eddie Alvarez after breaking his face.  It’s strange to see Stephens back in the UFC, but he’s a local Iowa fighter and he signed just a one fight deal.  Jones’ only loses this fight if he engages Stephens in a firefight who still has a ton of power.  Jones has the edge in striking volume, but he should look to grapple where he has a big edge on Stephens.  Jones should be able to finish Stephens on the mat and that’s how I see it going.

PREDICTION:  Jones by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Miesha Tate (-120) vs. Yana Santos (+100):

Miesha Tate is coming off a third round submission of Julia Avila and is 2-2 since returning from retirement.  She’ll face Yana Santos who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Chelsea Chandler that snapped a three fight losing streak.  Tate is a better wrestler and striker than Santos who just loves to clinch fight.  Santos has poor defensive wrestling that Tate should be able to exploit and possibly find a finish on the ground.

PREDICTION:  Miesha Tate by 3rd RD SUB

Azamat Bekoev (-340) vs. Ryan Loder (+270):

Azamat Bekoev made his UFC debut on short notice earlier this year, stopping Zach Reese with ground and pound in the first round. Bekoev is 19-3 with fifteen wins inside the distance, eight by submission. He faces Ryan Loder who won "The Ultimate Fighter" with a second round ground and pound stoppage of Robert Valentin. Loder is 7-1 with five wins by knockout and two by decision.  Bekoev is the more well-rounded fighter, but it’s interesting that he’s a bigger favorite here over Loder than he was Reese.  Loder comes from a strong wrestling background and I think he’ll have success here in this matchup and at these odds, he’s very enticing.

PREDICTION:  Ryan Loder by DEC

Gillian Robertson (-240) vs. Marina Rodriguez (+195):

Gillian Robertson has won three straight and four of her last five since moving back down to strawweight. She's coming off a unanimous decision win over Luana Pinheiro. She'll take on Marina Rodriguez who has lost two straight split decisions to Iasmin Lucindo and Jessica Andrade and four of her last five overall.  This is your textbook striker versus grappler match.  Robertson is a strong grappler, while Rodriguez is the much more dangerous striker.  Rodriguez has really awful defensive wrestling so Robertson should be able to exploit that.  Rodriguez was able to survive on the ground against elite black belts in Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.  She beat Dern whose offensive wrestling is awful, but she was dominated by Jandiroba.  I think this fight looks more like the Jandiroba fight than the Dern fight.  It wouldn’t shock me if Robertson submitted Rodriguez even though Dern and Jandiroba couldn’t.  The pick is Robertson by decision, but a submission is definitely on the table.

PREDICTION:  Gillian Robertson by DEC

Gaston Bolanos (-120) vs. Quang Le (+100):

Gaston Bolanos is coming off a unanimous decision win over Cortavious Romious and has won two of three since joining the UFC. He faces Quang Le who is coming off a third round knockout loss to Long Xiao and has lost his first two fights in the UFC.  Bolanos is a former Muay Thai fighter that has transitioned to MMA and he’s had better results than in the UFC.  I thought he’d be awful on the ground, but he hasn’t looked bad.  He’ll be the better striker here and I don’t think Le’s wrestling is good enough to just grind him out.  I’ve got Bolanos by decision or late knockout.

PREDICTION:  Gaston Bolanos by DEC

Thomas Petersen (-305) vs. Don'Tale Mayes (+245):

Thomas Petersen is coming off a first round knockout loss to Shamil Gaziev and has lost two of three since joining the UFC. His opponent, Don'Tale Mayes, has lost two straight and officially four of his last six fights. He's coming off a first round submission loss via heel hook to Valter Walker.  Petersen comes from a wrestling background, but hasn’t used it too much only landing four takedowns in three UFC fights.  His striking is decent, but he’ll be giving up five inches of height and seven inches of reach to Mayes.  Petersen should be looking to wrestle here after just getting knocked out and Mayes is clearly weakest when put on his back.  If Petersen fights smart, he strikes just enough to set up his takedowns and grind Mayes out for three rounds.

PREDICTION: Thomas Petersen by DEC

Ivana Petrovic (-260) vs. Juliana Miller (+210):

In the opening prelim of the night, Ivana Petrovic takes on Juliana Miller in a women's flyweight bout. Petrovic is coming off a split decision Ioss to Jamey-Lyn Horth and has lost two of three since joining the UFC. Miller hasn't fought in almost two years due to injuries and personal reasons. The last time we saw her, she was getting knocked out by Luana Santos in the first round. She's lost two straight after stopping Brogan Walker with strikes to win "The Ultimate Fighter".  Ever since watching Miller on TUF, I’ve been a fan, but her last two fights definitely exposed how raw and green she is.  Hardy was too fast and athletic for her and Santos tagged her early while they brawled and Miller just couldn’t recover.  Petrovic fights nothing like Hardy or Santos so I’m willing to back to the well on Miller here.  Her striking isn’t technical, but she’s aggressive and she’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt.  Petrovic is a low volume striker and even if she tries to wrestle, Miller is a more dangerous submission grappler.  I just don’t see Petrovic being able to smother Miller for three rounds so I’ll say Miller gets some form of finish on the ground or wins a decision.

PREDICTION:  Juliana Miller by DEC

UFC DES MOINES TICKET

SATURDAY MAY 3RD

MAIN CARD:

Cory Sandhagen/Bo Nickal -190 (1.9u)

Daniel Rodriguez +120 (0.5u)

Cameron Smotherman +120 (0.5u)

Mason Jones ITD -105 (1.05u)

PRELIMS:

Miesha Tate -120 (1.2u)

Tate RD3 +1600 (0.1u)

Ryan Loder +270 (0.5u)

Loder DEC +650 (0.2u)

Gillian Robertson -3.5 -120 (1.2u)

Thomas Petersen/Don'Tale Mayes over 2.5 rounds -160 (0.8u)

Juliana Miller +210 (0.5u)

Miller ITD +500 (0.2u)

Miller RD3 +2200 (0.1u)