UFC Baku: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Saturday 6/21

The UFC will be heading to Baku, Azerbaijan for the first time and it's an early start of 9am on the West Coast and noon on the East Coast. We've had five straight profitable cards and slowly crawly our way towards green on the year.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Atlanta) +2.9u

2025 YTD: -4.53u

Khalil Rountree Jr. (-110) vs Jamahal Hill (-110):

In the main event, Khalil Rountree Jr. will take on former UFC light heavyweight champion Jamahal Hill. These two were originally scheduled to headline UFC Kansas City back in April, but Hill pulled out with an injury. Prior to that, Hill was knocked out in the third round by Jiri Prochazka and in the first round by Alex Pereira. This will be Rountree's first fight since losing by fourth round knockout to Pereira in a valiant effort. That loss snapped a five fight winning streak. I am personally not a fan of Hill, but I can't let biases get in the way of how I break down fights and Hill should have the advantages in this fight. Neither of these guys are defensive wizards, but Hill throws at a much higher volume and has proven five round cardio. Maybe his durability is an issue, but getting knocked out by Pereira and Prochazka isn't a major red flag to me. Rountree certainly has power and it wouldn't surprise me if he hurt Hill, but he needs to hurt Hill to win or he's going to fall behind on volume.

PREDICTION: Jamahal Hill by DEC

Ignacio Bahamondes (-150) vs. Rafael Fiziev (+125):

In the co-main event, Rafael Fiziev faces Ignacio Bahamondes in a lightweight bout. Fiziev had won six straight, but now he's lost three in a row, two to Justin Gaethje. Bahamondes has won three straight, all by first round finish, and six of seven since dropping his UFC debut. These two are likely going to slug it out and Bahamondes will enjoy a seven inch height and four inch reach advantage. Fiziev could look to mix in takedowns as Bahamondes struggled there against L'udovit Klein, but that's not Fiziev's game and he's probably looking to put on a show in front of his fellow Azerbaijani countrymen. Both have a high volume approach, but Bahamondes is better defensively and has the better gas tank as Fiziev has faded late in multiple fights. Fiziev did not look good at all against Gaethje in the second fight, but it was a short notice fight and long layoff so those could have been factors. In the end, I think Bahamondes gets it done here, likely by decision.

PREDICTION: Ignacio Bahamondes by DEC

Curtis Blaydes (-260) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+210):

This heavyweight bout between Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev was originally scheduled for UFC Seattle and then was shifted to UFC 313, but Blaydes got sick so the fight was scrapped on fight day and rebooked for this card. Blaydes is coming off a first round knockout loss to Tom Aspinall and has lost two of his last three. It took Kuniev two appearances on the Contender Series to make it to the UFC, but he impressed Dana White more with his recent first round knockout and was given the contract this time around.  He's 13-2-1 with nine wins inside the distance, six by knockout.  This is a major step up for Kuniev because Blaydes has been a perennial top five heavyweight for years, but until Blaydes starts to rely more on his wrestling, I can’t back him at this price.  Blaydes is a solid striker, but his durability is an issue so I’ll take the shot on Kuniev here that he can find Blaydes’ chin and hurt him.

PREDICTION:  Rizvan Kuniev by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Myktybek Orolbai (-155) vs. Tofiq Musayev (+130):

Myktybek Orolbai suffered his first loss in the UFC last time in a three round war with Mateusz Rebecki that ended in split decision. Now he'll welcome Tofiq Musayev, a former RIZIN and Bellator fighter, to the UFC. Musayev is 22-5 with twenty wins inside the distance, eighteen by knockout. He holds wins over UFC veterans Daron Cruickshank, Damien Brown and Johnny Case in RIZIN. Musayev is a local Azerbaijani fighter so he was signed specifically for this card, but he also very much deserves to be in the UFC. They are not giving him an easy debut either as Orolbai is a very tough fighter. Musayev is the more technically sound striker, while Orolbai relies more on his power. Orolbai likely has a grappling edge, but Musayev's ground game and defensive wrestling is pretty untested. Orolbai's last fight is a bit concerning as I don't consider Rebecki a dangerous striker and he beat up Orolbai pretty good. If he can't do damage with the takedowns, I have to favor Musayev on the feet so he'll be the pick.

PREDICTION: Tofiq Musayev by DEC

Nazim Sadykhov (-410) vs. Nikolas Motta (+320):

Nazim Sadykhov is 3-0-1 since joining the UFC, but it hasn't been without controversy. He's won two fights on cut stoppages. He lost both rounds to Evan Elder and then was losing the first to Ismael Bonfim before the cut. He'll take on Nikolas Motta who has won two straight, a unanimous decision over Maheshate and a first round knockout of Tom Nolan. Sadykhov won't be afraid to go toe to toe with Motta, but he's the better wrestler and grappler so if things get a little too hairy on the feet, he shouldn't hesitate on taking this fight to the mat. Sadykhov by decision or late finish is the pick.

PREDICTION: Nazim Sadykhov by DEC

Muhammad Naimov (-260) vs. Bogdan Grad (+210):

Muhammad Naimov has won four of five since joining the UFC and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Kaan Ofli. He faces Bogdan Grad who is coming off a second round stoppage via strikes over Lucas Alexander in his UFC debut. Grad is 15-2 with twelve wins inside the distance, nine by knockout. Naimov has a good record in the UFC, but it's deceiving and I don't think he's that good. He's a powerful striker and can wrestle a bit, but he's a low volume striker and he fades later in fights. Grad is an all action fighter and I like his style here against Naimov. Grad has defensive issues as a striker and a grappler, but he pushes a good pace and doesn't quit. Naimov may have some success wrestling, but I don't think he's holding Grad down and he isn't going to keep up with him in striking volume. Grad will start to take over in the second round and either win a decision or stop Naimov late.

PREDICTION: Bogdan Grad by DEC

Oban Elliott (-455) vs. Seokhyeon Ko (+350):

Oban Elliott has won three straight since joining the UFC and is coming off a third round finish of Bassil Hafez. He was supposed to fight Ramiz Brahimaj a few weeks ago, but visa issues caused him and his opponent Seokhyeon Ko to pull out of their fights. Ko earned his way to the UFC with a decision win on the Contender Series as a decent sized underdog. Ko is 11-2 with six wins by knockout and five by decision. I haven't been the biggest Elliott supporter, but he's definitely improving and starting to put it together. Elliott has improved his striking and defensive wrestling to go along with his relentless pace and cardio. It isn't a pretty style, but he gets it done as he grinds on you and limits the offense coming back his way. Ko has some knockout power, but Elliott is tough and durable and likely makes this an ugly fight that better suits him.

PREDICTION: Oban Elliott by DEC

JunYung Park (-180)vs. Ismail Naurdiev (+150):

JunYung Park is coming off a split decision win over Brad Tavares and has won five of his last six fights. He'll take on Ismail Naurdiev who returned to the UFC in October, defeating Bruno Silva by unanimous decision. He went 2-2 in his first stint in the UFC from 2019-2020. It's hard to take much from Naurdiev's win over Silva considering the state Silva was in. Naurdiev is the slicker striker, but Park has good striking volume and a solid wrestling game so he'll be the pick.

PREDICTION: JunYung Park by DEC

Melissa Mullins (-260) vs. Daria Zheleznyakova (+210):

Melissa Mullins has won two of three since joining the UFC and is coming off a second round ground and pound stoppage of Klaudia Sygula. She'll face Darya Zheleznyakova in a rematch from when they squared off in AresFC in 2022. Mullins won by first round ground and pound stoppage. Zheleznyakova is coming off a first round submission loss to Ailin Perez after defeating Montserrat Rendon by unanimous decision in her UFC debut. Zheleznyakova was getting the better of Mullins on their feet in their first encounter until Mullins got it to the mat and finished her off. It's a clear issue for Zheleznyakova as we saw Perez also have her way with her on the ground so I'll be siding with Mullins to get another finish on the ground insode the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Melissa Mullins by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Irina Alekseeva (-280) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+225):

Irina Alekseeva badly missed the bantamweight limit in her UFC debut, but was able to submit Stephanie Egger in the first round with a kneebar. She then lost a unanimous decision to Melissa Mullins, failed a drug test and has been sidelined for two years. She takes on Klaudia Sygula who was stopped with ground strikes in the second round by Mullins in her UFC debut. She's 6-2 overall with two wins by knockout, one by submission and three by decision. Alekseeva is the more physical fighter and a more dangerous finisher so she'll be the pick, but neither of these ladies are very good.

PREDICTION: Irina Alekseeva by 2nd RD SUB

Tagir Ulanbekov (-500) vs. Azat Maksum (+380):

Tagir Ulanbekov was originally supposed to face Kyoji Horiguchi in his return to the UFC, but now he'll face Azat Maksum who has gone 1-1 in the UFC with a split decision win over Tyson Nam in his UFC debut and a unanimous decision loss to Charles Johnson. He's 15-1 with nine wins inside the distance, five by submission. Ulanbekov is coming off a unanimous decision win over Clayton Carpenter for his third straight win. He's won five of six in the UFC. If Maksum is conceding takedowns to Johnson, I'd have to imagine Ulanbekov is going to have a lot of success too. Even if he isn't scoring takedowns, Ulanbekov should be able to outstrike Maksum and his low volume approach.

PREDICTION: Tagir Ulanbekov by DEC

Hamdy Abdelwahab (-155) vs. Mohammed Usman (+130):

Opening up the prelims is a low level heavyweight fight between Hamdy Abdelwahab and Mohammed Usman. Abdelwahab is coming off a controversial split decision win over Jamal Pogues after having his unanimous decision win over Don'Tale Mayes in his UFC debut overturned to a no contest. Usman has lost two straight by unanimous decision to Thomas Petersen and Mick Parkin after winning his first three fights in the UFC. Abdelwahab comes from a wrestling background, but his wrestling skills have been overrated and Usman has decent takedown defense. This is a toss up if it stays standing for the majority of the fight and I think Usman is the slightly better striker.

PREDICTION: Mohammed Usman by DEC

UFC BAKU TICKET

SATURDAY JUNE 21ST

MAIN CARD:

Jamahal Hill -110 (1.1u)

Hill DEC +500 (0.2u)

Ignacio Bahamondes -150 (0.75u)

Rizvan Kuniev +200 (0.5u)

Kuniev KO/TKO +500 (0.2u)

Tofiq Musayev +130 (0.5u)

Musayev DEC +450 (0.2u)

Bogdan Grad +210 (0.5u)

Grad DEC +600 (0.15u)

Grad RD3 +1800 (0.1u)

PRELIMS:

Oban Elliott/Nazim Sadykov -195 (1.95u)

JunYung Park -180 (0.9u)

Melissa Mullins/Irina Alekseeva -110 (1.1u)

Mullins ITD +110 (0.5u)

Alekseeva ITD +150 (0.5u)

Mohammed Usman +130 (0.5u)

Usman DEC +275 (0.2u)