UFC Atlanta: Usman vs. Buckley Saturday 6/14

The UFC is staying on the road as they head to Atlanta, Georgia. We've had four straight profitable weeks, but nothing groundbreaking. However, slow and steady wins the race.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 316): +0.95u

2025 YTD: -7.43u

Joaquin Buckley (-265) vs. Kamaru Usman (+215):

In the main event, Joaquin Buckley will face former UFC welterweight champion Kamaru Usman in a five round welterweight bout. Buckley has won six straight since dropping down to welterweight. He's coming off a third round doctor stoppage of Colby Covington. Usman has lost three straight and hasn't fought since October of 2023 where he lost a majority decision to Khamzat Chimaev up at middleweight on just a few days notice. Prior to that, he dropped back to back title fights to Leon Edwards. Usman at his best was an elite fighter. He's a strong wrestler with insane cardio and power in his hands. If he hasn't totally regressed, I think he still beats Buckley. Buckley faced a similar test in Covington and looked decent and as much as I loved prime Covington, Usman was the better fighter then and the better fighter now. Covington looked like he might be starting to get his wrestling going when the doctor decided to stop the fight. I don't see Buckley having as much success defending Usman’s takedowns and I don't think he'll hurt him. Lesser wrestlers have had their way with Buckley and Usman should too and Usman is built for five round fights. Give me the former champion as the underdog.

PREDICTION: Kamaru Usman by DEC

Rose Namajunas (-230) vs. Miranda Maverick (+190):

In the co-main event, former UFC strawweight champion Rose Namajunas takes on Miranda Maverick. Namajunas is coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Erin Blanchfield. Prior to that, she had won two straight five round unanimous decisions over Amanda Ribas and Tracy Cortez. Maverick is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jamey-Lyn Horth and has now won four straight and six of her last seven. Namajunas is in a weird spot because she's probably not a title contender right now, but she isn't just a gatekeeper either. She's a good test for Maverick, but Maverick also represents a step down in competition. I definitely favor Namajunas in the striking and she's a sneaky good wrestler. Maverick is a solid fighter, but she's struggled with lesser competition and don't think she can beat Namajunas.

PREDICTION: Rose Namajunas by DEC

Edmen Shahbazyan (-150) vs. Andre Petroski (+130):

Since losing three straight, Edmen Shahbazyan has won three of his last five and coming off a first round knockout of Dylan Budka. He'll take on Andre Petroski who has won three straight, all by unanimous decision. Most recently he defeated Rodolfo Viera. This is an interesting fight because neither fighter is trustworthy and are very flawed. Shahbazyan is basically a one round fighter, but he's pretty good for that first round. It's just if the fight gets extended into the second round, his cardio falls off a cliff. Petroski is a solid wrestler and grappler, but he's also not a cardio machine because he's very muscular and uses a lot of energy in his striking and wrestling. His durability isn't the greatest so Shahbazyan certainly could stop him early, but I'm going to side with the underdog in Petroski here because I trust his cardio and wrestling if this fight gets extended. It might not be pretty, but Petroski is the pick with a late stoppage in play.

PREDICTION: Andre Petroski by DEC

Raoni Barcelos (-240) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+195):

Raoni Barcelos is coming off a unanimous decision win over Payton Talbott as a massive underdog and has won two straight after losing four of five. He'll face Cody Garbrandt who is coming off a second round submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo over a year ago that snapped a two fight winning streak. Prior to that, he had lost five of six and was knocked out in four of the losses. This is a battle of aging bantamweights, but I just can't bring myself to pick Garbrandt because his chin is so bad. Barcelos isn't a big power puncher, but it doesn't take much to hurt Garbrandt. Garbrandt has knockout power and certainly could stop Barcelos, but if he doesn't, he'll probably just fall behind on volume to Barcelos and Barcelos is the better wrestler and submission grappler at this point. I'll go with Barcelos to pick up a club and sub over Garbrandt.

PREDICTION: Raoni Barcelos by 2nd RD SUB

Mansur Abdul-Malik (-950) vs. Cody Brundage (+625):

Mansur Abdul-Malik has won his first two fights in the UFC, a first round knockout over Dusko Todorovic in the first round and then a second round knockout of Nick Klein. He's undefeated at 8-0 with all his wins coming by stoppage, seven by knockout. Six of his wins have come in the first round. He'll take on Cody Brundage who is coming off a first round knockout of Julian Marquez and has officially "won" three of his last four with a no contest sprinkled in. Abdul-Malik is a legit prospect and should put an absolute beating on Brundage who isn't very good. He has some power in his hands and loves to jump on guillotine chokes. He also wilts under pressure quickly and has quit on two occasions in the UFC. One earned him a disqualification win against Jacob Malkoun and the other resulted in a no contest against Abdul Razak Alhassan. As long as Abdul-Malik doesn't fall into an early guillotine choke or get clipped, he's going to be too much for Brundage and likely pounds him out on the ground before the first round ends.

PREDICTION: Mansur Abdul-Malik by 1st RD KO/TKO

Oumar Sy (-675) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+490):

Oumar Sy has won his first two fights in the UFC, a first round submission over Tuco Tokkos in his UFC debut and then a unanimous decision over Da Woon Jung. Sy is undefeated at 11-0 with eight wins inside the distance. He was originally supposed to face Alonzo Menifield in March, but he had to pull out and the fight was rebooked for this card. Menifield is coming off a split decision win over Julius Walker that snapped a two fight losing streak where he was knocked out by Azamat Murzakanov and Carlos Ulberg. There aren't many good prospects in the light heavyweight division and Sy seems pretty legit, while I've never been high on Menifield. He's explosive and has power, but I just don't think he's very good. Sy struggled to score takedowns in his last fight and could struggle here as well, but he should be able to win a striking battle using his eight inch reach advantage. As long as Menifield doesn't catch him, Sy either scores a few takedowns and grinds him out or uses that reach to pick apart Menifield from the outside.

PREDICTION: Oumar Sy by DEC

Rodolfo Bellato (-380) vs. Paul Craig (+300):

Rodolfo Bellato and Paul Craig were supposed to fight last month, but the fight was canceled last minute because Bellato had herpes. Yes ... herpes! Here's what I wrote the first time they were booked:

In the co-main event, Rodolfo Bellato takes on Paul Craig in a light heavyweight bout. Bellato is coming off a majority draw with Jimmy Crute after knocking out Ihor Potieria in the second round in his UFC debut. Bellato is 12-2-1 with eleven wins inside the distance, seven by knockout. Both of his losses are by knockout to Vitor Petrino. After losing his last three fights at middleweight, Craig is moving back up the light heavyweight division where all eight of his wins came by stoppage, six by submission. Craig is a dangerous submission grappler, but he's a poor striker and wrestler and his durability is an issue. Bellato would have to make a critical mistake of engaging Craig on the ground for him to lose this fight. Bellato has durability concerns of his own, but he's tough and should be able to stop Craig on the feet inside two rounds.

PREDICTION: Rodolfo Bellato by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Michael Chiesa (-345) vs. Court McGee (+275):

After losing three straight, Michael Chiesa has won two in a row over Tony Ferguson and Max Griffin, both by rear naked choke. He'll face Court McGee who snapped a three fight losing streak of his own with a first round submission via neck crank over Tim Means. This is a battle of aging welterweights, but I think Chiesa has a little more left in the tank. Chiesa isn't a dangerous striker, but McGee's durability is starting to fade after a long career so maybe Chiesa can hurt him after all. McGee is a solid well-rounded fighter and isn't easy outwrestled, but I slightly lean towards Chiesa as the better wrestler and a more dangerous submission grappler. Chiesa by decision is the pick, but it won't come easy.

PREDICTION: Michael Chiesa by DEC

Malcolm Wellmaker (-1800) vs. Kris Moutinho (+1000):

This fight between Malcolm Wellmaker and Kris Moutinho is a late addition to the card most likely because Wellmaker is a local fighter. Wellmaker is coming off a successful UFC debut where he knocked out Cameron Saaiman in the first round. Now he's the biggest UFC favorite of 2025 as he takes on the returning Moutinho who went 0-2 in the UFC from July 2021 to March 2022. Moutinho took a three round beating against Sean O’Malley and then was knocked out in the first round by Guido Cannetti and released from the promotion. Since then he's won five straight on the regional scene, all by finish. Moutinho showed a lot of toughness in his UFC debut, but he can't keep absorbing punishment like he did in his first two UFC fights. I was a little skeptical of Wellmaker's knockout power leading up to his UFC debut, but he absolutely crushed Saaiman and should do the same to Moutinho.

PREDICTION: Malcolm Wellmaker by 1st RD KO/TKO

Jose Ochoa (-185) vs. Cody Durden (+155):

Jose Ochoa is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Lone'er Kavanagh in his UFC debut. It was the first loss of his career so Ochoa is now 7-1 with all his wins inside the distance, six by knockout. He faces Cody Durden who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Joshua Van and has lost three of his last four. Four of his five losses in the UFC have come inside the distance. Four of his six wins have been by unanimous decision. Ochoa looks like a pretty solid prospect, but his competition has been subpar so Durden represents another step up in competition. Durden is an aggressive wrestler and likes to brawl on his feet. Ochoa's grappling is a bit untested so maybe Durden has success there, but if he can't Ochoa is the sharper striker and Durden tends to get hit and slow down as well. I'll go with Ochoa by decision, but a late stoppage is in play.

PREDICTION: Jose Ochoa by DEC

Ricky Simon (-380) vs. Cameron Smotherman (+300):

Ricky Simon was originally supposed to face Charles Jourdain, but Jourdain suffered an injury so in steps Cameron Smotherman on about five days notice. Simon had lost three in a row, but he snapped his losing streak with a surprising first round knockout of Javid Basharat. Smotherman is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Serhiy Sidey about five weeks ago after upsetting Jake Hadley as a big underdog in his UFC debut that came on short notice as well. Smotherman struggled with the the wrestling of Sidey and Simon is a much better and more aggressive wrestler. It's going to be rinse and repeat takedowns from Simon and he'll either grind out a decision or possibly lock up an arm-triangle choke.

PREDICTION: Ricky Simon by DEC

Ange Loosa (-140) vs. Phil Rowe (+120):

Ange Loosa is coming off a unanimous decision Ioss to Gabriel Bonfim about a year ago and before that had a fight with Bryan Battle end in a no contest. Prior to that, he won two straight by unanimous decision over Rhys McKee and AJ Fletcher. He'll take on Phil Rowe who is on a two fight losing streak, dropping a unanimous decision to Jake Matthews and a split decision to Neil Magny. He had won three straight, all by knockout over Niko Price, Jason Witt and Orion Cosce. Rowe has a four inch height and seven inch reach advantage over Loosa. Rowe has better boxing skills and is a better submission grappler, but his defensive wrestling is not good. Loosa should be able to land multiple takedowns and grind this one out while avoiding any submission attempts thrown his way by Rowe.

PREDICTION: Ange Loosa by DEC

Jamey-Lyn Horth (-600) vs. Vanessa Demopoulos (+440):

Kicking off the night is a woman's flyweight bout between Jamey-Lyn Horth and Vanessa Demopoulos. Horth was originally supposed to face Tereza Bleda, but Bleda withdrew so in steps Demopoulos. Horth is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Miranda Maverick and has alternated wins and losses in her four UFC bouts. Demopoulos has lost two straight, but could realistically be on a four fight losing streak. Horth is going to have a big size advantage here as Demopoulos usually competes at strawweight. Horth has a five inch height and six inch reach advantage and will be the physically stronger fighter. Horth is the better striker and should have a wrestling advantage as well as Demopoulos does not defend takedowns. She's a solid grappler so she's willing to play in guard, but also can be held down. Demopoulos will threaten with submissions, but Horth should be able to stay out of danger and win this on the feet or through wrestling control.

PREDICTION: Jamey-Lyn Horth by DEC

UFC ATLANTA VIP TICKET

SATURDAY JUNE 14TH

MAIN CARD:

Kamaru Usman +215 (1u)

Usman DEC +550 (0.5u)

Andre Petroski +130 (0.5u)

Petroski DEC +330 (0.3u)

Petroski RD3 +1400 (0.1u)

Raoni Barcelos SUB +400 (0.25u)

Oumar Sy DEC +220 (0.5u)

Oumar Sy/Alonzo Menifield over 1.5 rounds & Mansur Abdul Malik/Cody Brundage under 1.5 rounds +143 (1u)

PRELIMS:

Rodolfo Bellato KO/TKO -150 (0.75u)

Malcolm Wellmaker/Kris Moutinho under 1.5 rounds -160 (1.6u)

Jose Ochoa DEC +200 (0.25u)

Ochoa RD3 +1000 (0.1u)