UFC Abu Dhabi: Whittaker vs. De Ridder Saturday 7/26

The UFC is heading back to Abu Dhabi with a main card that will air on ABC. Don't forget it's an early start of 9am on the West Coast and noon on the East Coast.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC 318): -1.15u

2025 YTD: -12.08u

Robert Whittaker (-155) vs. Reinier de Ridder (+130):

In the main event, Robert Whittaker takes on Reinier de Ridder in a five round middleweight bout. Whittaker is coming off a first round submission Ioss to Khamzat Chimaev after winning two straight over Ikram Aliskerov and Paulo Costa. De Ridder has won three straight since joining the UFC, all by finish. He's coming off a second round knockout of Bo Nickal after submission wins over Kevin Holland and Gerald Meerschaert. He'll have a four inch height and five inch reach advantage over Whittaker. De Ridder is a strong grappler, but he's not a good wrestler and his striking isn't great. Whittaker has very strong takedown defense and is the far superior striker so I think he gets the win here. He has five rounds to knock de Ridder out, but I'm leaning towards a decision win.

PREDICTION: Robert Whittaker by DEC

Petr Yan (-360) vs. Marcus McGhee (+285):

In the co-main event, Petr Yan faces Marcus McGhee. Yan is coming off a five round unanimous decision win over Deiveson Figueiredo for his second straight win after losing three straight to Aljamain Sterling, Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili. McGee is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jonathan Martinez and is 4-0 in the UFC with his first three wins coming inside the distance, two by knockout. Yan and McGhee are both solid strikers so this should be a fun and competitive fight. Yan has good trip takedowns so he has another path to victory, but I think this will primarily be contested on the feet. Yan likely drops the first round like he always does, but I'll go with him to edge out the final two in a very close fight.

PREDICTION: Petr Yan by DEC

Shara Magomedov (-650) vs. Marc-Andre Barriault (+470):

Shara Magomedov is looking to bounce back from his first professional loss as he takes on Marc-Andre Barriault. Magomedov won his first four fights in the UFC, two by decision and two by knockout before dropping a unanimous decision to Michael "Venom" Page. Barriault snapped a three fight losing streak with a brutal knockout of Bruno Silva. Magomedov and Barriault are going to stand and trade and I don't think it ends well for Barriault. He's a pressure fighter that breaks his opponents, but his durability is an issue now after being knocked out three times. I'm expecting Magomedov to eventually catch him with something and put him out.

PREDICTION: Shara Magomedov by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Asu Almabayev (-110) vs. Jose Ochoa (-110):

Asu Almabayev was originally supposed to face Ramzan Temirov, but now he'll face Jose Ochoa who takes the fight on about two weeks notice. Ochoa is coming off a second round knockout of Cody Durden last month, while Almabayev is coming off a third round knockout loss to Manel Kape in March. He had won his first four fights in the UFC. Ochoa is definitely a promising prospect, but Almabayev has the volume striking and wrestling edge which will turn the fight in his favor.

PREDICTION: Asu Almabayev by DEC

Nikita Krylov (-200) vs. Bogdan Guskov (+165):

Nikita Krylov is coming off a first round knockout loss to Dominick Reyes after previously winning three straight with two first round finishes over Ryan Spann and Alexander Gustafsson. He takes on Bogdan Guskov who is coming off a second round submission win over Billy Elekana and has won three straight since losing his UFC debut. Guskov has not seen the third round since joining the UFC. Krylov has a big grappling edge so as long as he avoids Guskov's power early, I see a pretty dominant performance on the ground with a finish materializing before the end of round two.

PREDICTION: Nikita Krylov by 2nd RD SUB

Bryce Mitchell (-140) vs. Said Nurmagomedov (+120):

Bryce Mitchell lost three of his last five at featherweight so now he's making the drop to bantamweight to take on Said Nurmagomedov. Most recently, Mitchell was submitted via second round ninja choke by Jean Silva. Nurmagomedov is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Vinicius Olivieira and has lost two of his last three. He had won six of his first seven fights in the UFC. When you see the Nurmagomedov name you think Said is another beast Dagestani wrestler, but he's actually a strong striker with a nasty choke arsenal. Mitchell is a solid wrestler and grappler and should be the more physical fighter in this matchup. Nurmagomedov has struggled with good grapplers so I'll go with Mitchell, but he better not leave his neck exposed or he could getting choked out again.

PREDICTION: Bryce Mitchell by DEC

Carlos Leal (-535) vs. Muslim Salikhov (+400):

Carlos Leal is coming off a first round knockout of Alex Morono after losing a controversial unanimous decision to Rinat Fakhretdinov in his UFC debut. He takes on Muslim Salikhov who is coming off a first round wheel kick knockout over Song Kenan for his second straight win. This one should take place mainly on the feet pitting the low volume and flashy techniques of Salikhov against Leal's solid boxing. Leal is a pretty sizeable favorite for a potentially pure striking match, but I do think he wins. He has the better output and has the power to hurt Salikhov who has been knocked out by Li Jingliang and Randy Brown.

PREDICTION: Carlos Leal by DEC

Da'Mon Blackshear (-375) vs. Davey Grant (+295):

Da'Mon Blackshear has won three straight and coming off a unanimous decision win over Alatengheili, his first decision win in the UFC. He takes on Davey Grant who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Ramon Taveras after losing a controversial split decision to Daniel Marcos. I like Blackshear in this fight, but it's mostly contingent on him using his grappling. Grant is a good grappler himself, but Blackshear is a better wrestler and likely isn't getting caught in an inverted triangle that Grant landed on Raphael Assuncao. If this is all striking, Blackshear can certainly win the fight, but it's a toss up because as unathletic and clunky as Grant looks, he's an effective striker.

PREDICTION: Da'Mon Blackshear by DEC

Amanda Ribas (-200) vs. Tabatha Ricci (+165):

In the lone female fight on the card, Amanda Ribas faces Tabitha Ricci in a women's strawweight bout. Ribas is coming off a third round armbar submission loss to Mackenzie Dern. She's lost two straight and three of her last four. Ricci is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Xianon Yan after winning two controversial decisions over Angela Hill and Tecia Pennington. This fight is pretty cut and dry for me. Ribas is a better striker than Ricci and Ricci doesn't have the power to hurt her or at least I don't think so. Ribas also should be able to defend takedowns and cruise to a decision win, but the judges do like to give Ricci undeserving decisions so beware.

PREDICTION: Amanda Ribas by DEC

Ibo Aslan (-300) vs. Billy Elekana (+240):

Ibo Aslan won his first two fights in the UFC, but is coming in off a first round submission loss to Ion Cutelaba. All fourteen of his wins have come by knockout with two losses by submission. He's only been to the third round twice in his career. He faces Billy Elekana who was submitted by Bogdan Guskov in the second round of his UFC debut earlier this year. He's 7-2 with three wins by knockout, one by submission and three by decision. Aslan is a powerful striker, but I have concerns with him in fights that go past the first round and in his grappling. Elekana had a good first round in his UFC debut, but he took the fight on short notice, gassed hard and essentially quit. I do think he's better than that showing, but still not a UFC caliber fighter. He just doesn't stand out in any area. He's definitely live for an upset because Aslan has flaws, but ultimately I'll pick Aslan to win an ugly decision.

PREDICTION: Ibo Aslan by DEC

Steven Nguyen (-395) vs. Mohammed Yahya (+310):

Steven Nguyen hasn't fought since losing his UFC debut to Jarno Errens in March of 2024. Nguyen is 9-2 overall with seven wins inside the distance. He meets Mohammed Yahya who has lost both his fights in the UFC, a unanimous decision loss to Trevor Peek in his UFC debut and then a first round knockout to Kaue Fernandes. Yahya fights once a year when the UFC comes to the Middle East and he'll be making the drop to featherweight for this bout. It took Nyugen three tries on the Contender Series to make it to the UFC and then he laid an egg against Errens in his UFC debut. I'm honestly not too impressed by Nyugen, but Yahya shouldn't be fighting in the UFC. Nguyen has better striking output and could even out wrestle Yahya if he chose to.

PREDICTION: Steven Nguyen by DEC

Marcus Buchecha (-260) vs. Martin Buday (+210):

Kicking off the early prelims is a heavyweight bout between Marcus Buchecha and Martin Buday. Buchecha will be making his UFC debut after going 5-1 in ONE FC with five first round victories, four by submission. Buday has won six of seven since joining the UFC with five of those wins coming by decision. Buchecha is an elite submission grappler, while Buday is a clinch heavy striker. On the mat, Buchecha is going to be light years ahead of Buday, but we haven't seen Buday's wrestling tested since joining the UFC. I'm going to assume Buchecha will have early success wrestling and will make short work of Buday on the ground. However, if Buday can defend the takedowns, he's a more experienced striker and I'd favor him to grind away at Buchecha on the feet and tire him out.

PREDICTION: Marcus Buchecha by 1st RD SUB

UFC ABU DHABI TICKET:

SATURDAY JULY 26TH:

MAIN CARD:

Robert Whittaker -155 (1.55u)

Shara Magomedov ITD -150 (1.5u)

Nikita Krylov ITD -140 (1.05u)

Nikita Krylov/Bogdan Guskov under 1.5 rounds -180 (1.35u)

PRELIMS:

Bryce Mitchell -140 (1.05u)

Amanda Ribas DEC -120 (0.9u)

Ibo Aslan/Billy Elekana over 1.5 rounds -110 (1.1u)

Ibo Aslan DEC +650 (0.1u)

Marcus Buchecha ITD -140 (1.05u)