UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev Saturday 11/15

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 111): +1.5u

2025 YTD: -23.04u

Islam Makhachev (-305) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+245):

In the main event, UFC welterweight champion Jack Della Maddalena will defend his title for the first time against former UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev who vacated the lightweight title in order to chase a second title at welterweight. Della Maddalena upset Belal Muhammad to win the title and has gone 8-0 since joining the UFC. Makhachev has won fifteen straight and is 16-1 in the UFC. He successfully defended the lightweight title four times. Some may be concerned about the extra fifteen pounds for Makhachev, but he was a large lightweight and shouldn't be undersized at welterweight. Makhachev is a strong wrestler and submission grappler and I expect him to dominate Della Maddalena on the ground. Della Maddalena is the more dangerous striker, but Makhachev is defensively sound and limits strikes coming his way. If Della Maddalena struggled with the wrestling of Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns, imagine how he'll deal with Makhachev. I see Makhachev snatching up a submission inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Islam Makhachev by 2nd

Valentina Shevchenko (-130) vs. Weili Zhang (+110):

In the co-main event, UFC women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will defend her title against former UFC strawweight champion Weili Zhang. Zhang vacated her title after defeating Tatiana Suarez earlier this year. Zhang was a two time flyweight champion and successfully defended the belt four times. Shevchenko successfully defended her title against Manon Fiorot after reclaiming it against Alexa Grasso in their trilogy bout. Shevchenko is a two time flyweight champion and successfully defended her title seven times. This is the best fight that can be made in WMMA and I feel pretty confident in Shevchenko. Zhang might pack more power on the feet, but Shevchenko is the better technical kickboxer with an underrated wrestling game and Zhang's biggest weakness is her defensive wrestling. This will be competitive, but Shevchenko's ability to mix in takedowns puts her over the top for me.

PREDICTION: Valentina Shevchenko by DEC

Sean Brady (-130) vs. Michael Morales (+110):

The next fight between Sean Brady and Michael Morales is a key matchup in the welterweight division with the winner in the running for a title shot. Brady is coming off a fourth round submission win over former champion Leon Edwards and has won three straight since suffering his only pro loss to Belal Muhammad. Morales is coming off a first round knockout of Gilbert Burns to extend his undefeated record to 18-0. Morales is 6-0 in the UFC with four wins by knockout, three coming in the first round. This is a very tough fight to call and I'm really looking forward to it. Will Brady be able to impose his strong grappling or can Morales keep this one standing where he has a big edge on the feet? Brady is definitely a liability on the feet especially after seeing him get beat up by Muhammad and stopped. However, Brady is the strongest wrestler and grappler that Morales has faced. Sure, Morales just easily finished a talented grappler in Burns, but Burns is past his prime. I'm not very confident in Brady, but I do think Morales will struggle with the grappling of Brady and lose a lopsided decision or possibly get submitted.

PREDICTION: Sean Brady by DEC

Carlos Prates (-160) vs. Leon Edwards (+130):

We have another key welterweight bout here between Carlos Prates and former UFC welterweight champion Leon Edwards. Prates bounced back from his five round unanimous decision loss to Ian Garry with a first round knockout of Geoff Neal via elbow. Prates is 5-1 in the UFC with all five wins by knockout, three in the first round. Edwards is coming off a fourth round submission loss to Sean Brady and dropped the UFC welterweight title to Belal Muhammad prior to that. Edwards has been facing all the best wrestlers in the welterweight division, but now he gets a striker in Prates. The chain smoking Brazilian has more power, but Edwards could have some wrestling upside here. I'm going to pick Prates here as I've never been big on Edwards and think he's on the decline.

PREDICTION: Carlos Prates by DEC

Benoit Saint Denis (-180) vs. Beneil Dariush (+150):

Opening up the main card of the PPV is a lightweight bout between Benoit Saint Denis and Beneil Dariush. Saint Denis has won two straight, both by second round submission after losing two straight to Renato Moicano and Dustin Poirier. All seven of his wins in the UFC have come by stoppage. Dariush bounced back from two straight first round knockout losses to defeat Renato Moicano by unanimous decision. I see this fight going one of two ways. Either Saint Denis blitzes Dariush early or Dariush weathers the storm and takes over the fight as he's the much better technical striker and grappler. I'm going with Dariush to pull off the slight upset.

PREDICTION: Beniel Dariush by DEC

Bo Nickal (-205) vs. Rodolfo Vieira (+170):

In the featured prelim, Bo Nickal looks to rebound from his first loss as he faces Rodolfo Viera. Nickal suffered a second round knockout via knees to the body against Reinier de Ridder and is now 4-1 in the UFC and 7-1 overall. Vieira is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Tresean Gore and has won three of his last four. Five of Vieira's six UFC wins have come by submission, four by arm-triangle choke. This is another intriguing fight because Nickal is an elite wrestler, while Vieira is a world class grappler. Will Nickal try to impose his strength or will he look to avoid grappling and strike where he doesn't look that comfortable? I think Nickal is going to come in with a heavy wrestling gameplan and try to break Vieira with his pace. If Vieira gasses badly, maybe Nickal can pour it on for a finish, but I think it will be Nickal by decision.

PREDICTION: Bo Nickal by DEC

Gregory Rodrigues (-180) vs. Roman Kopylov (+150):

Gregory Rodrigues is coming off a first round knockout of Jack Hermansson and has won four of his last five. Six of Rodrigues' eight UFC wins have come by knockout. He'll take on Roman Kopylov who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Paulo Costa after winning five of six with four knockouts. This fight comes down to weather Rodrigues looks to grapple early because that is Kopylov's biggest weakness. Rodrigues can certainly compete in a striking battle, but I question his durability. I'll go with Rodrigues to come in with a heavy grappling gameplan and pick up his first submission in the UFC inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Gregory Rodrigues by 2nd RD SUB

Erin Blanchfield (-270) vs. Tracy Cortez (+220):

This woman's flyweight bout between Erin Blanchfield and Tracy Cortez is a rematch from their 2019 Invicta fight where Cortez won by split decision. It was Cortez's sixth pro fight and Blanchfield's fourth. Since then Cortez has gone 6-1 in the UFC with a win on the Contender Series, while Blanchfield has compiled a 7-1 record. I like Blanchfield to get her revenge here using her superior submission grappling. Her wrestling isn't great, but I think she can score a few takedowns on Cortez and outgrapple her on the way to a decision win.

PREDICTION: Erin Blanchfield by DEC

Malcolm Wellmaker (-455) vs. Ethyn Ewing (+350):

Malcolm Wellmaker was originally supposed to face Serhiy Sidey and then Cody Haddon stepped up on short notice. Now Haddon is out so in steps UFC newcomer Ethyn Ewing on just two days notice. Wellmaker is undefeated at 10-0 and has won both of his UFC fights by first round knockout. Ewing just competed on November 7th knocking out Billy Brand in the first round to win the A1 Combat bantamweight championship. He's 8-2 overall with seven wins by knockout. Due to the short notice, this will be a featherweight bout. Ewing looks like a pretty solid striker so this one could be competitive, but I do think Wellmaker scores another first round knockout.

PREDICTION: Malcolm Wellmaker by 1st RD KO/TKO

Kyle Daukaus (-470) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+360):

Kyle Daukaus returned to the UFC in August and scored a first round knockout of Michel Pereira. He went 2-4 in the UFC in his first stint and has won five straight overall. He'll face Gerald Meerschaert who is coming off a first round knockout loss to Michal Oleksiejczuk and has lost three straight. Meerschaert is now 12-12 in the UFC with all of his wins by stoppage, eleven by submission. He's been finished in seven of his twelve losses, five by knockout. This could be a fun grappling match, but Daukaus is the better striker and wrestler of the two. Both have durability issues, but Meerschaert's striking isn't that dangerous or powerful. Meerschaert will want to grapple, but he'll struggle to get takedowns so Daukaus likely beats him up on the feet and gets a finish inside the first two rounds .

PREDICTION: Kyle Daukaus by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Pat Sabatini (-120) vs. Chepe Mariscal (+100):

We have another rematch here between Pat Sabatini and Chepe Mariscal. Mariscal won their first encounter by split decision back in 2018. Sabatini is coming off a unanimous decision win over Joanderson Brito and has won three of his last four. Mariscal is 5-0 since joining the UFC. He's coming off a unanimous decision over Ricardo Ramos. Sabatini is a strong wrestler and grappler, but he's not a comfortable striker and his durability is concerning. He's a better submission grappler than Mariscal, but probably struggles to keep him down. If he has to compete in extended striking exchanges with Mariscal it isn't going to go well for him and for that reason I have to side with Mariscal to rough him up standing and eventually finish him.

PREDICTION: Chepe Mariscal by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Fatima Kline (-520) vs. Angela Hill (+390):

Fatima Kline fell short in her UFC debut at flyweight against Jasmine Jasudavicius, but has bounced back with two finishes since dropping back down to strawweight. She'll take on Angela Hill who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Iasmin Lucindo. She's 3-3 in her last six and 13-15 overall in the UFC. Kline is a very bright prospect, while Hill keeps chugging along but she's definitely on the decline. She's a skilled striker, but doesn't dominate her opponents there and while her grappling has improved, Kline is the superior submission grappler. Hill survived on the ground with elite grapplers like Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba so it'd be something if Kline was able to submit her.

PREDICTION: Fatima Kline by DEC

Baysangur Susurkaev (-1050) vs. Eric McConico (+675):

Baysangur Susurkaev burst onto the scene with a quick win on the Contender Series and was then swiftly rebooked just days later against Eric Nolan on UFC 319 winning by second round submission. Undefeated at 10-0, he'll face Eric McConico who picked up his first UFC win with a highly debateable split decision win over Cody Brundage. Susurkaev is going to absolutely roll here. If McConico is going life and death with Brundage, Susurkaev is going to run right through him. The hype is probably a bit much on Susurkaev, but he's a sharp striker and McConico's durability is an issue. Susurkaev ends this one with strikes in the first round.

PREDICTION: Baysangur Susurkaev by 1st RD KO/TKO

Matheus Camilo (-170) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+140):

Starting off the action is a short notice lightweight bout between Matheus Camilo and Viacheslav Borshchev. Camilo was supposed to fight Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at UFC 321 last month, but the fight was scrapped at weigh-ins. Camilo lost his UFC debut getting submitted by Gabe Green in the second round. Borshchev is coming off a first round submission loss to Terrance McKinney and is 1-3-1 in his last five fights. Camilo profiled as a striker prior to his UFC debut, but he came in with a wrestling heavy gameplan against Green, but made a grappling mistake, gassed and was easily submitted. Borshchev is an experienced striker, but he has abysmal takedown defense. Camilo may go back to his striking roots here, but he really should look to wrestle again. I'll go with Camilo to do just that and win a decision.

PREDICTION: Matheus Camilo by DEC

UFC 322 VIP TICKET

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH

MAIN CARD:

Islam Makhachev/Baysangur Susurksev ITD -170 (1.7u)

Makhachev ITD +110 (1u)

Valentina Shevchenko -130 (0.65u)

Sean Brady -130 (0.65u)

Brady SUB +400 (0.25u)

Carlos Prates -160 (0.8u)

Prates DEC +250 (0.2u)

Beniel Dariush +150 (0.5u)

Dariush DEC +450 (0.2u)

PRELIMS:

Bo Nickal DEC +130 (0.5u)

Gregory Rodrigues -180 (1.35u)

Rodrigues ITD +130 (0.5u)

Rodrigues SUB +450 (0.2u)

Kyle Daukaus ITD -120 (0.6u)

Chepe Mariscal +100 (0.5u)

Fatima Kline/Erin Blanchfield -160 (1.6u)

Matheus Camilo -170 (0.85u)

Camilo DEC +350 (0.2u)