UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane Saturday 10/25

Early start tomorrow because the UFC is in Abu Dhabi so get those bets in early!

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vancouver): -2.70u

2025 YTD: -24.03u

Tom Aspinall (-345) vs. Ciryl Gane (+275):

In the main event, UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall will defend his title against former interim UFC heavyweight champion Ciryl Gane. Aspinall was interim champ as well, winning the title with a first round knockout of Sergei Pavlovich and then defended it with a first round knockout of Curtis Blaydes. Aspinall was then elevated to sole champion when Jon Jones retired. This will be his first fight since July of 2024. Gane is coming off a controversial split decision victory over Alexander Volkov and has fallen short in bids to win the title against Jones and Francis Ngannou. Aspinall is the next great heavyweight with strong boxing and grappling skills. The only question mark is his cardio. Gane in theory has the cardio edge because we've seen him fight late into fights comfortably. His biggest issue is his grappling. Jones made easy work of him, he struggled against Ngannou's wrestling and even surrendered takedowns to Volkov. This is an easy win for Aspinall if he looks to grapple early. That's not to say he can't win a striking battle, but Gane is a strong kickboxer and likely has the cardio edge the longer the fight goes. Outside of Aspinall having abysmal cardio, this is his fight to lose and the path of least resistance is to grapple.

PREDICTION: Tom Aspinall by 1st RD SUB

Mackenzie Dern (-150) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+125):

In the co-main event, Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba will vie for the vacant UFC women's strawweight title. This is a rematch from December of 2020 where Dern defeated Jandiroba by unanimous decision. This is a battle of elite submission grapplers, but Dern is the better of the two. Dern is an awful wrestler so Jandiroba has the edge there, but the striking edge goes to Dern. Dern isn't a technical striker, but she's willing to throw down and has more power than Jandiroba. Both may land some takedowns, but I don't expect extensive grappling control from either. If anything, you have to favor Dern on the ground. So in a fight that I expect to play out largely on the feet, I give the edge to Dern and see her winning the title.

PREDICTION: Mackenzie Dern by DEC

Umar Nurmagomedov (-625) vs. Mario Bautista (+455):

Umar Nurmagomedov is coming off his first loss as he fell short in his bid to defeat UFC bantamweight champion Merab Dvalishvili. In his six UFC wins, three are by unanimous decision, two by submission and one by knockout. He'll face Mario Bautista who has won eight in a row and coming off a unanimous decision win over Patchy Mix. Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on the card and rightfully so as he's the best bantamweight outside of Dvalishvili. He can do it all. He has strong striking, wrestling and cardio. Bautista is a good fighter, but he's outgunned here. He's a nice volume striker and has great cardio as well,but Nurmagomedov is defensively sound and Bautista's takedown defense isn't going to hold up here.

PREDICTION: Umar Nurmagomedov by DEC

Jailton Almeida (-185) vs. Alexander Volkov (+155):

Jailton Almeida has won eight of nine since joining the UFC with seven of those wins coming inside the distance. He's finished six of those fights in the first round. He'll take on Alexander Volkov who had a four fight winning streak snapped in a controversial split decision loss to Ciryl Gane. Volkov is four inches taller, but only has a one inch reach advantage. If Volkov can defend takedowns, this is his fight to win because he's a far better striker than Almeida. However, I expect Almeida to shoot early and have success. Once Almeida gets opponents down, he's go to work passing to dominant position and either looking for the submission or unleashing ground and pound. Volkov is going to give up his back and Almeida either locks up a rear naked choke or pounds him out. Either way, I don't see this one making it out of the first round.

PREDICTION: Jailton Almeida by 1st RD SUB

Azamat Murzakanov (-110) vs. Aleksander Rakic (-110):

Opening up the main card of the PPV is a light heavyweight bout between the undefeated Azamat Murzakanov and Aleksandar Rakic. Murzakanov is 5-0 in the UFC with four wins by knockout. Rakic has lost three straight and hasn't won a fight since defeating Thiago Santos in March of 2021. Rakic will have a six inch height and seven inch reach advantage. This will be the toughest test of Murzakanov's career so far. Rakic is the more diverse striker and he has an underrated wrestling game. Murzakanov has one punch knockout power and could definitely clip Rakic, but I think the movement of Rakic will give him fits as Murzakanov is more of a low volume, plodding striker. Give me Rakic to hand Murzakanov his first loss.

PREDICTION: Aleksandar Rakic by DEC

Quillan Salkilld (-120) vs. Nasrat Haqparast (+100):

In the featured prelim, Quillan Salkilld will take on Nasrat Haqparast. Salkilld has won his first two fights in the UFC. He's coming off a unanimous decision over Yanal Ashmouz after knocking out Anshul Jubli in just nineteen seconds. Haqparast has won five straight, the last two coming by split decision over Esteban Ribovics and Jared Gordon. This fight comes down to how well Haqparast's takedown defense holds up because Salkilld will attempt a ton of takedowns. Historically, Haqparast defends takedowns well, but struggled off his back against Dan Hooker years ago. On the feet, Haqparast is the far better striker and throws a ton of volume. I'll trust in Haqparast's takedown defense and pick him to win by decision.

PREDICTION: Nasrat Haqparast by DEC

Ikram Aliskerov (-225) vs. Jun Yong Park (+185):

Ikram Aliskerov is coming off a first round knockout of Andre Muniz and is now 3-1 in the UFC. He's won all three fights by first round knockout and his loss to Robert Whittaker is also by first round knockout. He'll face Jun Yong Park who has won six of his last seven with the loss being a controversial split decision to Andre Muniz. This is a really solid fight as Aliskerov is a strong grappler with powerful striking, while Park is a well-rounded fighter with great cardio and durability. I expect Aliskerov to have wrestling amd grappling success early, but Park isn't easy to hold down and holds edges in cardio and durability. I'll go with Aliskerov to win a decision by utilizing his grappling early in the fight and barely hanging on as Park storms back in the latter portion of the fight.

PREDICTION: Ikram Aliskerov by DEC

L'udovit Klein (-130) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+110):

L'udovit Klein was unbeaten in seven fights with six wins and majority draw with Jai Herbert, but that streak was snapped in a unanimous decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot. Now he takes on Mateusz Rebecki who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Chris Duncan in a three round war after going to war with Myktybek Orolbai in a split decision victory. This one comes down to the pacing of the fight. Klein is a low volume striker so he doesn't want to brawl with Rebecki, but at the same time Rebecki has taken a ton of damage lately. Klein has more power, but will struggle with the pace of Rebecki and Rebecki has the wrestling edge if he chooses. Give me Rebecki in another war.

PREDICTION: Mateusz Rebecki by DEC

Valter Walker (-375) vs. Louie Sutherland (+295):

Both Valter Walker and Louie Sutherland had fights fall apart on the day of weigh-ins so they've been rebooked against each other. Walker has won three straight, all by first round heel hook since a disappointing loss to Lukasz Brzeski in his UFC debut. Sutherland was set to make his UFC debut in Perth against Justin Tafa, but Tafa had issues. Sutherland is 10-3 with eight wins by knockout and two by decision. All three of his losses are by decision. Walker is the better wrestler and grappler and wouldn't be shocked if he won by heel hook for the fourth straight time because the heavyweight division is just so bad. Walker should land some early takedowns and either pick up a submission or pound Sutherland out inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Valter Walker by 1st RD SUB

Jose Delgado (-150) vs. Nathaniel Wood (+125):

Jose Delgado is coming off an impressive 26 second knockout of Hyder Amil. He also knocked out Connor Matthews in just under three minutes in his UFC debut. Delgado is 10-1 with all ten wins coming by stoppage. He'll face Nathaniel Wood who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Morgan Charriere and has won five of six since moving up to the featherweight division. Delgado will have a five inch height and four inch reach advantage over Wood. Delgado also came in a little heavy for this fight, while Wood is on the smaller scale of featherweights to begin with. Wood is the more experienced fighter and overall is more well-rounded, but Delgado is the more dangerous striker and Wood's durability is concerning. I don't know if Delgado will get him out of there, but I do like him to win this fight by landing the more damaging strikes.

PREDICTION: Jose Delgado by DEC

Hamdy Abdelwahab (-485) vs. Chris Barnett (+370):

Hamdy Abdelwahab is coming off his first professional loss to Mohammed Usman and is now 4-1 overall and 1-1 in the UFC with a win over Don'Tale Mayes overturned to a no contest. He takes on Chris Barnett who is coming off a first round knockout loss due to leg injury to Kennedy Nzechukwu a year ago and is 2-3 in the UFC. Barnett is five inches shorter at only 5'9", but he has a two inch reach advantage. He's an athletic heavyweight given his frame, but he's one of the worst heavyweights on the roster. Abdelwahab isn't far behind, but he has a strong wrestling background and basic striking skills. Barnett's two wins in the UFC have come by highlight reel knockout over Gian Villante and come from behind finish over Jake Collier after Collier gassed terribly. Abdelwahab doesn't wrestle enough for my liking, but he should have success against Barnett who has poor defensive wrestling and poor cardio. If for some reason, he doesn't wrestle, Abdelwahab has good enough boxing to win a slow paced striking affair. I'll say Abdelwahab lands a takedown or two and pounds Barnett out inside the first two rounds.

PREDICTION: Hamdy Abdelwahab by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Azat Maksum (-455) vs. Mitch Raposo (+350):

Azat Maksum has lost two straight unanimous decisions to Tagir Ulanbekov and Charles Johnson after beating Tyson Nam by split decision in his UFC debut. He faces Mitch Raposo who has lost split decisions to Andre Lima and Sumudaerji since joining the UFC. Raposo didn't deserve a win in either fight, but he did land six takedowns against Sumudaerji. However, wrestling without control or damage doesn't win fights. On paper, he's probably a better wrestler than Maksum, but Maksum does have a slight striking edge and is more of a complete fighter. Maksum also came in heavy for this fight so he's going to be the bigger fighter. I'll take Maksum by decision.

PREDICTION: Azat Maksum by DEC

Jaqueline Amorim (-395) vs. Mizuki Inoue (+310):

In the opening prelim, Jaqueline Amorim takes on Mizuki Inoue in a women's strawweight bout. Amorim has won four straight fights, all by finish, since losing her UFC debut to Sam Hughes. All ten of Amorim's win have come inside the distance, eight in the first round. Inoue is 2-1 in the UFC, but hasn't fought in over two years after beating Hannah Goldy by unanimous decision in September of 2023. Amorim is an elite grappler and a solid wrestler, but I worry about her cardio and striking if fights get extended. Inoue will have the striking edge if she can keep this standing, but I do expect Amorim to have early success with her wrestling and grappling. Inoue has never been finished so I can't expect Amorim to run right through her on the ground. I'll say Amorim wins this one by decision.

PREDICTION: Jaqueline Amorim by DEC

UFC 321 TICKET:

SATURDAY OCTOBER 25TH

MAIN CARD:

Tom Aspinall/Valter Walker -160 (2.4u)

Mackenzie Dern -150 (1.5u)

Dern DEC +250 (0.3u)

Jailton Almeida ITD -110 (1.1u)

Aleksandar Rakic -110 (0.55u)

Rakic DEC +200 (0.25u)

PRELIMS:

Nasrat Haqparast +100 (0.5u)

Ikram Aliskerov DEC +225 (0.2u)

Mateusz Rebecki +110 (0.5u)

Rebecki DEC +300 (0.25u)

Valter Walker ITD -135 (1.35u)

Jose Delgado -150 (0.75u)

Delgado DEC +400 (0.25u)

Azat Maksum/Mitch Raposo over 2.5 rounds -180 (1.35u)

Hamdy Abdelwahab ITD -110 (0.55u)

Jaqueline Amorim DEC +250 (0.3u)