UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 Saturday 10/4

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Perth): -0.65u

2025 YTD: -21.38u

Magomed Ankalaev (-265) vs. Alex Pereira (+215):

In the main event, Magomed Ankalaev defends his UFC light heavyweight title against former champion Alex Pereira in a rematch from UFC 313 where Ankalaev defeated Pereira by unanimous decision to win the title. Ankalaev has gone 12-0-1 since shockingly getting submitted by Paul Craig in his UFC debut. In the first fight, Ankalaev outlanded Pereira in total strikes, especially head strikes, and had success late clinching, but was never able to land a takedown on twelve attempts. Pereira was supposedly sick the first time around so maybe that contributed to his performance, but Ankalaev is just a tough matchup for him. He's a defensively sound striker with good durability and can wrestle when needed be. I'd love to say that Pereira catches him with that left hook this time around, but I can't pull the trigger so Ankalaev is the pick in another close decision.

PREDICTION: Magomed Ankalaev by DEC

Merab Dvalishvili (-410) vs. Cory Sandhagen (+320):

In the co-main event, UFC bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili will defend his title against Cory Sandhagen. Dvalishvili defeated Sean O'Malley to win the title and has successfully defended it twice, defeating Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision and then submitting O'Malley in the third round in their rematch. Sandhagen is coming off a second round victory over Deiveson Figueiredo after Figueiredo injured his knee. Sandhagen has won four of his last five with the lone loss being a five round unanimous decision loss to Umar Nurmagomedov in a number one contender bout. Sandhagen is a talented striker, but it's going to be tough to get a rhythm going as Dvalishvili relentlessly attempts takedowns. Now Dvalishvili isn't a great control grappler and Sandhagen is a good scrambler, but I think it's just going to be rinse and repeat as Dvalishvili lands takedowns and just grinds on Sandhagen for five rounds.

PREDICTION: Merab Dvalishvili by DEC

Jiri Prochazka (-200) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr (+160):

In what could decide the number one contender for the UFC light heavyweight title, former champion Jiri Prochazka faces Khalil Rountree Jr. Prochazka is coming off a third round finish of Jamahall Hill and is now 5-2 in the UFC with both losses coming by knockout to Alex Pereira. Rountree is coming off a five round unanimous decision win over Hill and has won six of his last seven. The lone loss in that stretch was a fourth round knockout loss to Pereira. This one will be fun for as long as it lasts as both of these guys love to strike and go for the kill. Prochazka is a wild man, while Rountree is more technical. Prochazka's durability is an issue, but he fights at an insane pace that Rountree won't be able to keep up with. If Rountree can't hurt and finish Prochazka early, Prochazka is going to keep coming and eventually find the finish late in the second or third round.

PREDICTION: Jiri Prochazka by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Youssef Zalal (-520) vs. Josh Emmett (+390):

Youssef Zalal has won four straight since returning to the UFC. He's coming off a unanimous decision victory over Calvin Kattar after winning three in a row by submission. He'll take on Josh Emmett who has lost three of his last four. Most recently, he lost a five round unanimous decision to Lerone Murphy. Emmett's last win was a brutal first round knockout of Bryce Mitchell. Power is the last thing to go, but Emmett is going to be at a speed disadvantage as Zalal is not going to engage in firefight, but will stick and move and look to outpoint and frustrate Emmett. I think the wrestling and grappling will be a wash so the pick will be Zalal as he'll be landing the cleaner strikes and dictating the pace.

PREDICTION: Youssef Zalal by DEC

Joe Pyfer (-250) vs. Abus Magomedov (+205):

Opening up the main card is a middleweight bout between Joe Pyfer and Abus Magomedov. Pyfer is coming off a unanimous decision win over Kelvin Gastelum and has won five of six since joining the UFC. Magomedov has won three straight and is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Michel Pereira. To be honest, Magomedov has been beating blown up welterweights and now will face a legit middleweight in Pyfer. Both like to strike, but Pyfer has more power and his cardio is better than Magomedov's. If Pyfer can push a pace, he could get Magomedov out of there, but I think this goes to decision.

PREDICTION: Joe Pyfer by DEC

Ateba Gautier (-1800) vs. Tre'ston Vines (+1000):

In the featured prelim, Ateba Gautier takes on UFC newcomer Tre'ston Vines after Ozzy Diaz had to withdraw earlier this week. Gautier has won his first two fights in the UFC, both by first round knockout. He's 8-1 with seven knockouts, six in the first round. Vines is 10-3 with seven wins inside the distance, six by knockout. All three of his losses are by first round knockout. Vines has a wrestling background and is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he's in a lot of trouble on the feet if he can't get Gautier down. Gautier is a massive favorite here at -1800 and the under 1.5 rounds is even -600. Gautier should end this one early and violently.

PREDICTION: Ateba Gautier by 1st RD KO/TKO

Edmen Shahbazyan (-325) vs. Andre Muniz (+260):

Edmen Shahbazyan is coming off a unanimous decision win over Andre Petroski and has won three of his last four after a stretch where he lost four of five fights. He faces Andre Muniz who has lost three of his last four, getting finished in all three. His win in that stretch is a debateable split decision over Jun Yong Park. It's hard to trust Shahbazyan, but Muniz is even less trustworthy. He's a dangerous submission grappler, but his striking and wrestling aren't good and his cardio is terrible. Shahbazyan should be able to keep this on the feet, beat up Muniz and finish him late in the first or sometime in the second round.

PREDICTION: Edmen Shahbazyan by 1st RD KO/TKO

Farid Basharat (-500) vs. Chris Gutierrez (+380):

Farid Basharat is 4-0 since joining the UFC with three unanimous decision wins and first round submission win. Most recently, he defeated Victor Hugo. He'll take on Chris Gutierrez who is coming off a split decision win over John Castaneda. He's won two straight and quietly has compiled a 10-3-1 record in the UFC. Basharat is a smart fighter and while he's a solid striker himself, the path of least resistance is to wrestle and grapple with Gutierrez who struggles to defend takedowns.

PREDICTION: Farid Basharat by DEC

Daniel Santos (-150) vs. Joo Sang Yoo (+125):

Daniel Santos is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jeong Yeong Lee and has won three straight after dropping his UFC debut. He faces Joo Sang Yoo who had an impressive UFC debut, knocking out Jeka Saragih in just 28 seconds. He's 9-0 with five wins inside the distance, four by knockout. Santos and Yoo like to strike, but they have different styles. Santos likes to brawl, while Yoo is more technical. As far as wrestling and grappling goes, I give the edge to Santos and see him edging it out with his aggressive striking and wrestling.

PREDICTION: Daniel Santos by DEC

Macy Chiasson (-200) vs. Yana Santos (+160):

Macy Chiasson is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Ketlen Vieira that snapped a two fight winning streak. She'll takes on Yana Santos who is coming off a unanimous decision win over Miesha Tate. She's won two in a row after losing three straight. This could be a very ugly clinch fest if Chiasson is unable to land takedowns. She's big and physical, but her wrestling isn't great and Santos is good in the clinch. I don't have a real strong lean in this fight, but I'll go with Santos to stuff the takedowns, have the better cardio and squeak this one out.

PREDICTION: Yana Santos by DEC

Patchy Mix (-325) vs. Jakub Wiklacz (+260):

Patchy Mix had a ton of hype coming into his UFC debut, but he faced a tough opponent in Mario Bautista and lost a unanimous decision. It was only the second loss of Mix's career who is now 20-2. He'll face Jakub Wiklacz who will be making his UFC debut. Wiklacz is 16-3-1 and was the bantamweight champion in KSW. Ten of his sixteen wins have come by submission. All three of his losses have come by stoppage, two by knockout. Both Mix and Wiklacz prefer to grapple, but Mix is definitely the superior grappler. Mix isn't the best wrestler, but he's effective in getting the fight to the ground and working to the back mount where he'll threaten with submissions. Wiklacz is a solid grappler so he should be able to make it to the final bell.

PREDICTION: Patchy Mix by DEC

Punahele Soriano (-345) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+275):

Punahele Soriano has won two straight since dropping to welterweight and is coming off a 31 second knockout of Uros Medic. He'll take on Nikolay Veretennikov who is coming off a split decision win over Francisco Prado after losing his first two fights in the UFC. Soriano has looked great at welterweight, but I do have some concerns with him. He definitely has power, but he basically just throws single shots with his left so if he's not winning by knockout, he might not win the striking exchanges. Soriano should be looking to wrestle here as Veretennikov was mauled on the ground by Vanderford and Prado had success as well. In the end, I'll side with Soriano to fight with a smart gameplan, use his wrestling and dominate Veretennikov.

PREDICTION: Punahele Soriano by DEC

Austin Vanderford (-290) vs. Ramiz Brahimaj (+235):

Austin Vanderford made a successful UFC debut, finishing Nikolay Veretennikov in the second round with ground and pound. He's 13-2 overall with both his losses coming in the first round in Bellator to Aaron Jeffery and Gegard Mousasi. He faces Ramiz Brahimaj who has won two straight and three of his last four, all in the first round. All twelve of his wins are by stoppage, eleven by submission. He has eleven wins in the first round. Brahimaj is obviously an early threat to score a finish, but when he doesn't he typically gives up multiple takedowns and gets grinded out. Vanderford is a nightmare matchup for him because he's a strong wrestler and will be aggressive with ground and pound. Vanderford should land multiple takedowns, wear down Brahimaj and eventually finish him in the second or third round.

PREDICTION: Austin Vanderford by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Veronica Hardy (-850) vs. Brogan Walker (+575):

Opening up the card is a women's flyweight bout between Veronica Hardy and Brogan Walker. Hardy had put together a three fight winning streak after returning from a three year retirement, but that win streak was snapped in a unanimous decision loss to Eduarda Moura. Walker is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn't fought in over two years. Hardy is a big favorite at -850 which I don't love, but she should get this one done. She's the quicker fighter and should easily outpoint Walker, while avoiding getting taken down. She might even mix in some takedowns herself.

PREDICTION: Veronica Hardy by DEC

UFC 320 TICKET

SATURDAY OCTOBER 4th

MAIN CARD:

Magomed Ankalaev/Alex Pereira over 3.5 rounds -140 (1.4u)

Merab Dvalishvili/Edmen Shahbazyan -160 (1.6u)

Jiri Prochazka ITD -110 (1.1u)

Joe Pyfer/Abus Magomedov over 1.5 rounds -160 (1.2u)

Pyfer DEC +350 (0.3u)

PRELIMS:

Ateba Gautier/Tre'ston Vines under 0.5 round +140 (0.5u)

Macy Chaisson/Yana Santos goes to split or majority decision +330 (0.5u)

Patchy Mix/Austin Vanderford -135 (1.35u)

Punahele Soriano/Nikolay Veretennikov over 1.5 rounds -180 (1.35u)

Soriano DEC +210 (0.5u)

Austin Vanderford ITD +200 (0.5u)