UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Saturday 8/16

The UFC heads to the Windy City for UFC 319 headlined by a middleweight title fight as well as the crowning of another "The Ultimate Fighter".

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 109): +0.25u

2025 YTD: -15.13u

Khamzat Chimaev (-265) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+215):

In the main event, Khamzat Chimaev will look to become UFC middleweight champion as he takes on the current champ Dricus Du Plessis. Du Plessis upset Sean Strickland by split decision to win the title, then defended with a fourth round submission win over former champion Israel Adesanya. In his latest title defense, Du Plessis made it look much easier as he won another five round decision over Strickland. Chimaev is 8-0 in the UFC with six finishes, but his career has been marred by health and visa issues. Chimaev picked up three wins in a two month span in 2020 and has only fought five times since. He's coming off a first round submission via face crank over Robert Whittaker and a majority decision win over Kamaru Usman in his official middleweight debut. Chimaev has been the boogeyman of two divisions due to his fierce wrestling and grappling, but this fight with Du Plessis has a ton of intrigue and what if scenarios. Chimaev is the better wrestler and grappler and he's more explosive than Du Plessis, but Du Plessis is just so awkward and unorthodox and he's durable. Would I be shocked if Chimaev landed an early takedown and locked up a submission? Absolutely not. But what if he doesn't find that quick finish on Du Plessis? I don't think he can sustain his wrestling pace over a five round fight and while his striking is fine, I would favor Du Plessis in striking exchanges the longer this fight goes. I'm going with the defending champion Du Plessis to weather the storm and take over the fight, either winning by decision or forcing a fourth or fifth round stoppage.

PREDICTION: Dricus Du Plessis by DEC

Aaron Pico (-180) vs. Lerone Murphy (+150):

In the co-main event, former Bellator fighter Aaron Pico makes his highly anticipated UFC debut as he takes on Lerone Murphy. Pico was supposed to face Movsar Evloev a few weeks ago, but Evloev pulled out. Pico was a stud wrestler in high school, but chose to go the Olympic route instead of college wrestling and transitioned to MMA very quickly where he joined Bellator as probably the most hyped prospect in MMA. Pico was upset in his debut and started off his career 4-3, but he's now 13-4. Eleven of his wins have come inside the distance, nine by knockout. Besides being an extremely talented wrestler, Pico has dangerous boxing, but his durability and striking defense are issues. Murphy will be the toughest test of his career, but his defensive wrestling is something that Pico can certainly exploit. It's just a matter of whether Pico will because of how strong his boxing is. I think Pico is an elite talent and now we are truly going to find out. Murphy can certainly win a striking fight and possibly even hurt Pico, but I'm going to back Pico to mix in the wrestling and striking to win a decision.

PREDICTION: Aaron Pico by DEC

Carlos Prates (-220) vs. Geoff Neal (+180):

Carlos Prates is coming off his first loss in the UFC, a five round unanimous decision to Ian Garry. He'll face Geoff Neal who he was supposed to face earlier this year at UFC 314, but Neal pulled out. Prates and Neal are both strikers so this one could be fun, but Prates is low volume and Neal can be at times as well. When Prates throws he's proven to have knockout power, but Neal is a pretty durable. Neal does his best against fighters willing to brawl, but struggles with more tactical strikers. This should be a tight one, but I'll give the edge to Prates.

PREDICTION: Carlos Prates by DEC

Michael Page (-220) vs. Jared Cannonier (+180):

Michael "Venom" Page is coming off a unanimous decision win over Shara Magomedov and has won two of three since joining the UFC. It was his first fight at middleweight after a long career at welterweight and now he fights a former middleweight title contender in Jared Cannonier. This is another battle of strikers with Page having an unorthodox style where he darts in and out with single flashy strikes. I have underestimated Page's skills so far since he made the jump to the UFC and my read has been wrong on every fight. So I'm going to back him here against Cannonier who has big power, but most likely will not be able to track Page down. Cannonier's durability is also diminishing as he ages so it wouldn't surprise if Page caught him clean with something, hurts him and swarms for a finish. Page by decision is my official pick.

PREDICTION: Michael Page by DEC

Kai Asakura (-310) vs. Tim Elliott (+250):

Kicking off the main card of the PPV is a flyweight bout between Kai Asakura and Tim Elliot. Asakura was given a title shot against UFC flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in his UFC debut, but was submitted via rear naked choke in the second round. Elliott has been out almost two years since submitting Sumudaerji in the first round. Asakura is a striker, while Elliott is a grappler with an awkward striking style. He's a nightmare for bad grapplers and likely has the edge on Asakura there, but he's 38 now and coming off a long injury layoff. Asakura will be the sharper striker and I don't see Elliott having his usual grappling success here so I'm going to go with Asakura.

PREDICTION: Kai Asakura by DEC

Baysangur Susurkaev (-950) vs. Eric Nolan (+625):

In the featured prelim, Baysangur Susurkaev will make his UFC debut just four days after winning in the first round on the Contender Series. He'll take on Eric Nolan who will also be making his UFC debut. Susurkaev is 9-0 with eight wins by knockout, seven in the first round. He's a training partner of Khamzat Chimaev which has led to this immediate push. Nolan is 8-3 with six wins inside the distance, four by knockout. He was the CFFC welterweight champion and has won three straight by knockout. I understand the hype with Susurkaev, but Nolan is a solid prospect in his own right. He'll definitely be giving up some size being a natural welterweight, but Susurkaev isn't some kind of elite striker. Crazy things happen in MMA and it's hard not to take a shot on my fellow Jersey boy in Nolan.

PREDICTION: Eric Nolan by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Michal Oleksiejczuk (-220) vs. Gerald Meerschaert (+180):

Michal Oleksiejczuk is coming off a first round knockout of Sedriques Dumas that snapped a three fight losing streak. He'll face Gerald Meerschaert who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Brad Tavares and has lost two straight and four of his last six. This fight goes one of two ways. Either Oleksiejczuk blasts Meerschaert out of there early or Meerschaert weathers the storm and uses his crafty submission grappling to put Oleksiejczuk away. I'm pretty confident that Oleksiejczuk is going to find the knockout blow before he allows Meerschaert to capitalize on a mistake.

PREDICTION: Michal Oleksiejczuk by 1st RD KO/TKO

Loopy Godinez (-140) vs. Jessica Andrade (+120):

Loopy Godinez is coming off a unanimous decision win over Julia Polastri after losing back to back unanimous decisions to Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. She takes on Jessica Andrade who is coming off a first round submission loss to Jasmine Jasudavicius. Andrade has lost two in a row and five of her last seven. She was finished in four of those losses. Godinez is at her best when she's mixing in her wrestling and that's what she'll need to do here against Andrade who is notoriously weak on the ground. Godinez doesn't always employ the smartest gameplans so maybe she slugs it out with Andrade and makes this fight a lot closer than it needs to be. I'm going to bank on Godinez fighting smart and using her wrestling to grind out a decision or capitalize on a grappling mistake to lock up a submission.

PREDICTION: Loopy Godinez by DEC

Chase Hooper (-325) vs. Alexander Hernandez (+280):

Chase Hooper is coming off a unanimous decision win over Jim Miller and has now won five straight. He faces Alexander Hernandez who has won two in a row, a unanimous decision over Kurt Holobaugh and a split decision over Austin Hubbard. After fighting two aging veterans in Miller and Clay Guida, Hooper meets Hernandez who was once a promising prospect. I am not a fan of Hernandez's game and think Hooper is going to work him over here. Hernandez struggles with fighters who can push the pace and that's exactly what Hooper will do, especially in the grappling. Hooper has improved his striking, but it's in the scrambles where he excels and that's where Hernandez will begin to wilt. Hooper wears him down and wins a lopsided decision or finds the late submission.

PREDICTION: Chase Hooper by RD3 SUB

Edson Barboza (-130) vs. Drakkar Klose (+110):

In another battle of veteran lightweights, Edson Barboza takes on Drakkar Klose. Barboza hasn't fought since May of 2024 where he dropped a five round unanimous decision to Lerone Murphy. Klose is coming off a first round knockout loss to Joel Alvarez that snapped a four fight winning streak. This will be Barboza's first fight back at lightweight since 2019. Both of these like to strike with Barboza the more technical and flashy of the two, while Klose likes to pressure and make it ugly in the clinch. Klose could make Barboza uncomfortable for a bit, but once Barboza finds his rhythm, he'll start to take over and win a decision or stop Klose with strikes.

PREDICTION: Edson Barboza by DEC

Karine Silva (-205) vs. Dione Barbosa (+170):

Karine Silva had won her first four fights in the UFC, three by first round submission, but now she's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Viviane Araujo. She faces Dione Barbosa who replaces an injured JJ Aldrich. Barbosa is coming off a first round submission win over Diana Belbita and has won two of three since joining the UFC. This is a rematch from 2019 where Barbosa in just her third pro fight beat Silva by unanimous decision. This should be a close fight, but I'm just not sold on Silva in extended fights. Quick submissions aren't going to continue to come at this level and Barbosa has already seen what Silva has to offer albeit six years ago. Give me the underdog Barbosa by decision.

PREDICTION: Dione Barbosa by DEC

Alibi Idiris (-455) vs. Joseph Morales (+350):

Kicking off the card is the flyweight final of "The Ultimate Fighter" between Alibi Idiris and Joseph Morales. Idris is undefeated at 10-0 with five wins inside the distance, four by knockout. Morales is 12-2 with eight wins inside the distance, six by submission. He fought in the UFC before from August of 2017 to November 2018, going with 1-2 with a first round submission win over Roberto Sanchez in his UFC debut. He then faced Deiveson Figueiredo and was knocked out in the second round and after that lost a split decision to Eric Shelton. Morales is a solid grappler, but Idiris is the better striker and looks like a better wrestler. I'll go with Idiris by decision.

PREDICTION: Alibi Idiris by DEC

UFC 319 TICKET

SATURDAY AUGUST 16TH

MAIN CARD:

Dricus Du Plessis +215 (1u)

Du Plessis RD4 +2500 (0.1u)

Du Plessis RD5 +2800 (0.1u)

Aaron Pico -180 (0.9u)

Carlos Prates DEC +275 (0.2u)

Michael Page DEC +100 (0.75u)

PRELIMS:

Eric Nolan +625 (0.2u)

Nolan ITD +1000 (0.1u)

Nolan KO/TKO +1400 (0.1u)

Oleksiejczuk ITD -130 (0.65u)

Lupita Godinez -140 (0.7u)

Godinez SUB +700 (0.1u)

Chase Hooper/Michal Oleksiejczuk -110 (1.65u)

Hooper ITD +100 (0.75u)

Hooper RD3 +600 (0.1u)

Edson Barboza -130 (0.65u)

Dione Barbosa +170 (0.5u)

Barbosa DEC +275 (0.2u)