UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 Saturday 7/19

It's the Last Dance for Dustin Poirier as he's deciding to hang up the gloves in his home state of Louisiana. It's not the best PPV offering, but there are some fun fights and a bunch of large favorites.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Nashville) -0.7u

2025 YTD: -10.93u

Max Holloway (-140) vs. Dustin Poirier (+120):

In the main event, Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier do battle for the third and final time in Poirier's home state of Louisiana. Poirier is up 2-0 with a first round submission over Holloway in 2012 in Holloway's UFC debut and then a five round unanimous decision win in 2019 as they battled over the interim UFC lightweight title. Holloway and Poirier are both high volume strikers, but as we saw back in 2019 Poirier is the heavier hitter. Neither guy is going to run away on volume, but in the end I'm going to side with Poirier because of his power. I know it's his retirement fight and I almost always fade that narrative, but Poirier is the pick.

PREDICTION: Dustin Poirier by DEC

Roman Kopylov (-230) vs. Paulo Costa (+190):

In the co-main event, Roman Kopylov takes on former UFC middleweight title challenger Paulo Costa. Kopylov is coming off a third round head kick knockout win over Chris Curtis for his second straight win. He's won six of his last seven since losing his first two fights in the UFC. Costa is coming off a five round split decision loss to Sean Strickland and has lost four of his last five fights. His last win came over Luke Rockhold in August of 2022. Costa's days as a relevant UFC middleweight are long gone. He'll be dangerous in the first round when he's fresh, but I cant trust the guy. Kopylov isn't exactly a cardio machine, but he was winning the third round against Curtis before the weird finish. He was going to win the third round. That Kopylov dominates Costa and possibly finishes him late.

PREDICTION: Roman Kopylov by 3rd RD KO/TKO

Kevin Holland (-625) vs. Daniel Rodriguez (+455):

Kevin Holland is coming off a second round submission win via anaconda choke over Vicente Luque a little over five weeks ago and has won two straight since dropping back down to the welterweight division. He faces Daniel Rodriguez who is coming off a third round knockout of Santiago Ponzinibbio for his second straight win after losing three straight prior. Holland only has a two inch height advantage, but he has a seven inch reach advantage. Rodriguez is always in fun striking battles and Holland will oblige him, but he won't hesitate to jump on a choke after hurting an opponent. Rodriguez isn't a bad grappler, but Holland is a better grappler and I rarely pick against Holland when he's at a clear grappling or wrestling disadvantage.

PREDICTION: Kevin Holland by DEC

Dan Ige (-225) vs. Patricio Freire (+185):

Dan Ige is coming off a third round knockout of Sean Woodson that snapped a two fight losing streak. He'll meet Patricio "Pitbull" Freire who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Yair Rodriguez in his UFC debut. Freire was a double champ at lightweight and featherweight in Bellator before joining the UFC, but his best years are behind him. However, this matchup with Ige is far better than his debut against Rodriguez. Ige and Freire have very similar builds and styles, but I think Ige has a bit more left in the tank. The striking numbers should be fairly close, but I see Ige landing a few harder shots that bank the rounds for him on the way to a decision.

PREDICTION: Dan Ige by DEC

Daniel Zellhuber (-625) vs. Michael Johnson (+455):

Kicking off the PPV main card is a lightweight bout between Daniel Zellhuber and Michael Johnson. Zellhuber is coming off a split decision loss to Esteban Ribovics in a Fight of the Year contender. That loss snapped a three fight winning streak. Johnson is coming off a second round knockout of Ottman Azaitar and has now won two straight after previously losing six of eight. Zellhuber will have a three inch height and reach advantage over Johnson. This fight should be a banger as both fighters love to trade. I'll give Johnson the power edge, but he's 39 and Zellhuber is just 26. I don't think Johnson's durability is bad, but I trust Zellhuber's chin more at this point. I expect this to be pretty competitive and while the line is a tad bit wide in Zellhuber's favor, he should land the more convincing shots and win a decision.

PREDICTION: Daniel Zellhuber by DEC

Vinicius Olivieira (-140) vs. Kyler Phillips (+120):

In the featured prelim, Vinicius Olivieira takes on Kyler Phillips in a bantamweight bout. Oliveira is coming off a unanimous decision win over Said Nurmagomedov and has won his first three fights in the UFC. Phillips is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rob Font as a heavy favorite that snapped a three fight winning streak. Phillips is a really talented fighter, but he has cardio issues. He most definitely could finish Oliveira early who isn't the most defensively sound fighter, but I trust Oliveira's power and grit the longer this fight goes. It's going to be wild early, but give me Oliveira by third round knockout as Phillips can't hold up to the pressure.

PREDICTION: Vinicius Oliveira by 3rd RD KO/TKO

Brendan Allen (-180) vs. Marvin Vettori (+150):

Brendan Allen has lost two straight to Anthony Hernandez and Nassourdine Imavov, both by unanimous decision, after rattling off seven straight wins. He'll face Marvin Vettori in a grudge match that's been building for a long time and even involves a scuffle on a casino floor a few years ago. Vettori is coming off a five round unanimous decision loss to Roman Dolidze after a nearly two year layoff due to injury. I was very confident in Vettori against Dolidze even with the layoff, but he did not look good at all. This is going to be a really close fight. Allen has improved his striking and is a really strong grappler, but he's not a great wrestler while Vettori has very good takedown defense and his striking output and cardio are much better than Allen's. Vettori has definitely been a popular underdog pick this week, but I'll go with Allen. He'll have a strong first round and I just can't back the version of Vettori that I just saw.

PREDICTION: Brendan Allen by DEC

Francisco Prado (-150) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (+125):

Francisco Prado is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jake Matthews and has lost two straight and three of four since joining the UFC. All three losses have come by unanimous decision. He takes on Nikolay Veretennikov who is coming off a second round ground and pound stoppage loss to Austin Vanderford after losing a split decision to Danny Barlow in his UFC debut. All of Prado's losses in the UFC are striking based decisions and Veretennikov looks like the better striker. However, Veretennikov is not a good grappler so Prado should be looking to grapple here. The question is whether he will. If he doesn't, he loses another decision, but I think his trainers at American Top Team will have him looking to wrestle when needed, especially since his teammate Vanderford had so much success.

PREDICTION: Francisco Prado by DEC

Ateba Gautier (-550) vs. Robert Valentin (+410):

Ateba Gautier won his UFC debut with a first round knockout of Jose Medina which is impressive because of how durable Medina had shown to be. Gautier is 7-1 with six wins by knockout, five in the first round. He faces Robert Valentin who is coming off a split decision loss to Torrez Finney and a second ground and pound stoppage loss to Ryan Loder in his first two UFC bouts. Gautier is very young at just 23 years old and he's still very green, but he's explosive and a physical specimen. Valentin looked intriguing on "The Ultimate Fighter", but he's had a rough go of it in his first two UFC fights. I'd say Valentin is an action fighter who prefers to strike, but can out grapple weaker opposition and I'm pretty sure he's a far better grappler than Gautier. However, Valentin isn't a great wrestler so he's going to have to deal with Gautier's power and explosiveness early on. The longer this fight goes, I'd favor Valentin, but I think it's going to be a brawl early on and I'm not sure Valentin holds up.

PREDICTION: Ateba Gautier by 1st RD KO/TKO

Islam Dulatov (-675) vs. Adam Fugitt (+490):

Islam Dulatov will be making his UFC debut after earning a UFC contract with a first round knockout on the Contender Series. Dulatov is 11-1 with all his wins coming inside the distance, ten in the first round. He takes on Adam Fugitt who is coming off a split decision win over Josh Quinlan and is now 2-2 in the UFC. Dulatov is a promising prospect and he's getting a fairly easy test for his UFC debut. Fugitt is a solid fighter, but Dulatov is far more explosive and a proven finisher. There's obvious concerns about him in an extended fight and Fugitt is a scrappy veteran, but if Dulatov is the prospect we think he is, he puts Fugitt away in the first or second round.

PREDICTION: Islam Dulatov by 1st RD KO/TKO

Jimmy Crute (-325) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+250):

Jimmy Crute hasn't won a fight since October of 2021 when he knocked out Modestas Bukauskas in the first round. Since then he's been finished three times and has two majority draws with a short retirement mixed in. He's coming off a majority draw with Rodolfo Bellato where he dominated the first round, but slowed down over the final two. Now he faces Marcin Prachnio who has lost two of his last three, both by third round arm-triangle choke submission. Crute is so frustrating to back, but he should absolutely smoke Prachnio on the ground as long as he quickly pursues grappling like he should. Crute doesn't have the best fight IQ so he might just try to range strike with Prachnio and lose a decision. I am ready to be let down again, but I'm going with Crute via early finish, likely a submission.

PREDICTION: Jimmy Crute by 1st RD SUB

Ryan Spann (-245) vs. Lukasz Brzeski (+200):

Ryan Spann decided to make the move to heavyweight earlier this year, but it wasn't a successful move as he was knocked out by Waldo Cortes-Acosta in the second round. He's now lost four of his last five fights. He'll take on Lukasz Brzeski who has lost five of six since joining the UFC with the lone win coming over Valter Walker. Go figure. In his last three losses, he's been knocked out in the first round. Spann is a dangerous fighter for about five minutes, but after that he starts to lose steam and wilts under the first sign of pressure. If Brzeski survives the first five minutes, he could win an ugly decision or maybe even finish Spann, but I'll go with Spann to get the finish in the first round.

PREDICTION: Ryan Spann by 1st RD KO/ TKO

Brunno Ferreira (-575) vs. Jackson McVey (+475):

Brunno Ferreira was originally supposed to face Ikram Aliskerov here, but now he takes on Jackson McVey. McVey was supposed to make his UFC debut last month at UFC 317, but Sedriques Dumas couldn't get his ankle monitor removed and then Christopher Ewert missed weight by ten pounds. Ferreira is coming off a second round armbar submission win over Armen Petrosyan. He's 4-2 in the UFC with three wins by knockout. He's been knocked out by Nursulton Ruziboev and submitted by Abus Magomedov. He's never gone the distance in fifteen career fights. McVey is 6-0 with all six of his wins coming in the first round. He will have a six inch height and five inch reach advantage over Ferreira. This is a big step up for McVey, but at least he's a legit middleweight while Ferreira is much more suited for welterweight. However, Ferreira packs a ton of power and he's far more experienced than McVey who has feasted on subpar competition so far. There's obvious concerns about McVey's durability and cardio, but I don't love Ferreira as such a big favorite and the line has been trending more towards McVey. I'm going to assume McVey isn't ready for this level of competition so I'll say Ferreira wins by early knockout.

PREDICTION: Brunno Ferreira by 1st RD KO/TKO

Carli Judice (-395) vs. Nicolle Caliari (+310):

Opening up the night is a women's flyweight bout between Carli Judice and Nicolle Caliari. Judice is coming off a first round head kick knockout over Yuneisy Duben after losing a split decision to Gabriella Fernandes in her UFC debut. Caliari lost a split decision to Ernesta Kareckaite in her UFC debut. She's 8-3 overall with all wins coming inside the distance, five by knockout. Judice will have a four inch height and six inch reach advantage over Caliari. Judice is a high volume striker, but she's still very green with just a 4-2 career record. They have a common opponent in Kareckaite that they both lost to, but Judice was able to land 168 significant strikes to Kareckaite's 184 while Kareckaite out struck Caliari 95 to 67. Caliari has power in her hands and Judice is defensively porous so she should land a few good shots throughout the fight, but will fall behind on volume. Caliari has the grappling edge, but if she can't rack up damage and control time on the mat, Judice's output will get her the nod and that's the way I'm leaning.

PREDICTION: Carli Judice by DEC

UFC 319 TICKET:

SATURDAY JULY 19TH

MAIN CARD:

Dustin Poirier +120 (1u)

Poirier DEC +350 (0.2u)

Roman Kopylov/Kevin Holland -150 (1.5u)

Kopylov ITD +300 (0.25u)

Kopylov RD3 +1200 (0.1u)

PRELIMS:

Vinicius Oliveira -140 (1.05u)

Oliveira RD3 +1400 (0.1u)

Francisco Prado -150 (0.75u)

Jimmy Crute ITD -135 (1.35u)

Brunno Ferreira/Jackson McVey under 1.5 rounds & Brendan Allen/Marvin Vettori o2.5 rounds -120 (1.2u)