UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Saturday 6/28

It's International Fight Week as the UFC heads back to Las Vegas for their annual premier summer PPV. It's a great card headlined by two title fights and some really exciting fights on the undercard.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Baku) -6.55u

2025 YTD: -11.08u

Ilia Topuria (-425) vs. Charles Oliveira (+330):

In the main event, Ilia Topuria and Charles Oliveira will meet for the vacant UFC lightweight championship after the title was vacated by Islam Makhachev. Topuria was the reigning UFC featherweight champion, but he is relinquishing the title to take on Oliveira, a former UFC lightweight champion. Topuria scored back to back knockouts of legendary featherweights in Max Holloway and Alexander Volkanovski, the latter to win the title. This will be Topuria's second lightweight fight in the UFC. In his first fight in the division, he faced Jai Herbert and ate a huge headkick, but rallied back to brutally knock Herbert out. Oliveira is coming off a five round unanimous decision over Michael Chandler and has won two of his last three since losing the title to Makhachev. I doubted Topuria against Volkanovski and Holloway, but I'm not doubting him anymore. Oliveira is still a dangerous grapple and striker, but Topuria's boxing and punching power should be a big problem for Oliveira. Topuria claims the vacant lightweight title with a second round knockout.

PREDICTION: Ilia Topuria by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Alexandre Pantoja (-240) vs. Kai Kara-France (+195):

In the co-main event, Alexandre Pantoja defends his UFC flyweight title against Kai Kara-France. Pantoja will defend his title for the fourth time after submitting Kai Asakura in the second round in December. Kara-France is coming off a first round knockout of Steve Erceg that snapped a two fight skid, but his split decision loss to Amir Albazi was controversial. Kara-France is a powerful striker for flyweight, but Pantoja is very durable and no slouch as a striker himself. Pantoja is also an aggressive wrestler and the superior grappler. If Kara-France can defend the takedowns, then this fight becomes a pick 'em, but I don't see Pantoja's wrestling attack being stymied as he successfully defends his title.

PREDICTION: Alexandre Pantoja by DEC

Brandon Royval (+100) vs. Joshua Van (-120):

Brandon Royval was originally supposed to face Manel Kape in a likely number one contender bout, but Kape suffered a foot injury so in steps Joshua Van. Van is coming off a third round knockout of Bruno Silva just three weeks ago at UFC 316. Van has won four straight and seven of eight since joining the UFC. Royval has won two straight split decisions over Tatsuro Taira and Brandon Moreno and has won five of his last six. Royval is an aggressive striker and grappler with great cardio and I'm very excited to see him and Van go toe to toe. Van is a high volume striker that takes a little bit to get going, but once he does he attacks both the head and body which I love. His grappling is always going to be a concern, but his defensive grappling looked great versus Rei Tsuruya and Royval isn't a great wrestler. Royval has also dealt with concussion issues recently so I'm a little concerned with him being able to absorb the volume that Van will bring. Van by decision with a possibility of a late stoppage is the pick.

PREDICTION: Joshua Van by DEC

Renato Moicano (-120) vs. Beneil Dariush (+100):

Renato Moicano and Beniel Dariush were supposed to fight at UFC 311 earlier this year, but after Arman Tsarukyan pulled out of his lightweight title fight on fight day, Moicano was thrusted into a short notice title fight with Islam Makhachev, but was submitted in the first round. Moicano had won four straight prior to that. Dariush hasn't fought since December of 2023 when he was knocked out in the first round by Arman Tsarukyan. It was his second straight first round knockout loss, but prior to that he had won eight straight. Moicano has become a fan favorite because of his personality, but let's not forget he's just as old as Dariush and has had durability issues earlier in his career. If Dariush's chin isn't completely shot, he's a sharper striker, better wrestler and better grappler. Dariush by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Beneil Dariush by DEC

Felipe Lima (-180) vs. Payton Talbott (+150):

Opening up the main card is a bantamweight bout between Felipe Lima and Payton Talbott. Lima has won two straight since joining the UFC and is 14-1 overall. Talbott is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Raoni Barcelos as a massive favorite, suffering the first loss of his career. He's 3-1 in the UFC and 9-1 overall. Talbott is a skilled striker that just struggled with the relentless wrestling attack of Barcelos, but Barcelos is a seasoned veteran. Some will call Talbott a fraud, but there's no shame in losing to a veteran like Barcelos. Lima is a bright prospect as well. He's a strong grappler, but not the wrestler that Barcelos is and he's at a disadvantage in the striking. Talbott gets back in the win column as he defends the takedowns and lands the cleaner strikes.

PREDICTION: Payton Talbott by DEC

Gregory Rodrigues (-220) vs. Jack Hermansson (+180):

In the featured prelim, Gregory Rodrigues faces Jack Hermansson in a middleweight bout. Rodrigues is coming off a fourth round knockout loss to Jared Cannonier after winning three straight. Hermansson is coming off a five round unanimous decision win over Joe Pyfer, but that fight was sixteen months ago. Rodrigues is a powerful striker and strong grappler, but I worry about his durability and cardio. On the flip side, those are strengths of Hermansson so this fight will come down to how fast Rodrigues starts and if he can do enough damage in the first and second rounds to where Hermansson can't steal the fight late. I'm going to side with Hermansson and say that he wins the last two rounds with his jab, movement and superior cardio.

PREDICTION: Jack Hermansson by DEC

Jose Delgado (-140) vs. Hyder Amil (+120):

Jose Delgado had a successful UFC debut, stopping Connor Matthews with strikes in the first round. Delgado is 9-1 with all nine wins inside the distance, six in the first round. He faces Hyder Amil who has won his first three fights in the UFC and is undefeated at 11-0. Seven of his wins have come by stoppage, six by knockout. Amil is coming off a split decision win over William Gomis. This fight between Delgado and Amil is going to be a scrap because neither fighter likes to take a step back. I'm siding with the underdog in Amil because he's more suited than Delgado to win a long drawn out dog fight.

PREDICTION: Hyder Amil by 3rd RD KO/TKO

Tracy Cortez (-230) vs. Viviane Araujo (+190):

Tracy Cortez had won her first five fights in the UFC, but a five round unanimous decision loss to Rose Namajunas stopped that winning streak. Now she looks to get back on track as she faces Viviane Araujo. Araujo has won two of her last three coming through as an underdog against Karine Silva and Jennifer Maia. This is a very close fight where I give a slight edge to Araujo as a striker, while I think Cortez is the better wrestler with superior cardio. From a straight pick perspective, I like Cortez to slightly edge it out, but if you absolutely must bet this fight to scratch that itch, then I'd say Araujo.

PREDICTION: Tracy Cortez by DEC

Terrance McKinney (-155) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (+130):

Terrance McKinney is coming off a first round finish of Damir Hadzovic and has won three of his last four, all by first round knockout. He takes on Viacheslav Borshchev who has one win in his last four fights. He's coming off a unanimous decision loss to Tom Nolan. This fight should be a lot of fun for as long as it lasts which typically isn't long when it comes to McKinney's fights. McKinney is an aggressive fighter who is always looking for the quick finish because his cardio falls off a cliff quickly. McKinney has the wrestling edge on Borshchev, but Borshchev doesn't just accept position on bottom. He'll keep getting back to his feet and sure he'll keep getting taken down, but McKinney doesn't have the cardio for a continuous wrestling attack. I guess McKinney could achieve a dominant position early on Borshchev and gets the finish, but I'm more inclined to believe that Borshchev extends this fight into the second round and pours it on an exhausted McKinney for the finish.

PREDICTION: Viacheslav Borshchev by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Jacobe Smith (-2100) vs. Niko Price (+1100):

Jacobe Smith is undefeated at 10-0 and coming off a first round knockout of Preston Parsons in his UFC debut. He has eight wins by knockout, seven in the first round. He'll face Niko Price who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Themba Gorimbo and has lost three of his last four. Smith is a blue chip prospect with a strong wrestling background and knockout power. Smith is one of the biggest favorites in UFC history so this is purely a showcase fight and I expect him to make quick work of Price. Price was just thoroughly out-grappled by Gorimbo and he's nowhere the talent that Smith is. Smith might just knock out Price standing, but I think the finish will come on the ground after Smith lands a takedown.

PREDICTION: Jacobe Smith by 1st RD KO/TKO

Jhonata Diniz (-470) vs. Alvin Hines (+360):

Jhonata Diniz was originally supposed to face Justin Tafa on the main card of the PPV, but after Tafa pulled out, he's been demoted to the second prelim of the night as he takes on UFC newcomer Alvin Hines. Hines is undefeated at 7-0 with six wins inside the distance. Diniz is coming off a second round doctor stoppage loss to Marcin Tybura, the first loss of his career. He knocked out Austen Lane in his UFC debut and then won a unanimous decision over Karl Williams. Diniz is an experienced kickboxer and he'll enjoy a two inch height and five inch reach advantage over Hines who is just your average regional show heavyweight. Maybe Hines can have some success wrestling, but Diniz should be able to keep this standing where he's the far more skilled striker. Diniz lands the knockout blow before the end of the second round.

PREDICTION: Jhonata Diniz by 2nd RD KO/TKO

UFC 317 TICKET

SATURDAY JUNE 28TH

MAIN CARD:

Ilia Topuria/Alexandre Pantoja -135 (1.35u)

Joshua Van -120 (0.6u)

Van RD3 +1600 (0.1u)

Beniel Dariush +100 (0.5u)

Dariush DEC +250 (0.2u)

Payton Talbott +150 (0.5u)

Talbott DEC +350 (0.2u)

PRELIMS:

Jack Hermansson +180 (0.5u)

Hermansson RD3 +2500 (0.1u)

Hyder Amil +120 (0.75u)

Amil RD3 +1100 (0.1u)

Viacheslav Borshchev +130 (0.5u)

Jhonata Diniz ITD & Jacobe Smith/Niko Price under 1.5 +105 (1u)