UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Saturday 6/7

The UFC heads back to beautiful Newark, New Jersey for their annual June PPV offering headlined by two title fights and a shit load of big favorites.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Vegas 107) +0.03u

2025 YTD: -8.38u

Merab Dvalishvili (-310) vs. Sean O’Malley (+250):

In the main event, Merab Dvalishvili defends his UFC bantamweight championship for the second time as he faces Sean O’Malley, the man he defeated to win the title.  Dvalishvili is coming off a unanimous decision win over Umar Nurmagomedov, while O’Malley has been out of action since losing the title.  Dvalishvili has won twelve straight fights since losing his first two fights in the UFC.  I don’t think this fight looks much different from the first time.  Sure, O’Malley has had time to study Dvalishvili’s game, but the same goes for the defending champ as well.  O’Malley is a sniper as a striker so he can always hurt Dvalishvili, but I think that moment has to come very early before Dvalishvili gets in a groove with his pace, pressure and wrestling.  Dvalishvili by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION:  Merab Dvalishvili by DEC

Kayla Harrison (-625) vs. Julianna Pena (+455):

In the co-main event, Julianna Pena will defend her UFC women’s bantamweight championship against Kayla Harrison.  Pena won the title for the second time in a split decision victory over Raquel Pennington.  Since beating Amanda Nunes for the title in December of 2021, Pena has only fought twice.  Broken ribs forced her out of a trilogy bout with Nunes in June of 2023.  Harrison has won her first two fights in the UFC, a second round submission of Holly Holm and a unanimous decision over Ketlen Vieira.  She’s 18-1 overall and enters as a huge -625 favorite over the champion.  Harrison is a two time Olympic gold medalist in Judo and just a strong, physical fighter overall.  She should absolutely dominate Pena on the ground in this fight as Pena has abysmal defensive wrestling.  However, there are two scenarios in which she could lose.  The first one is being careless on the ground and letting Pena attack with submissions and the other is cardio.  Harrison used to fight at 155 pounds in the PFL and while she hasn’t had issues making 135 pounds in the UFC, it’s still a massive weight cut for her.  I’ll pick Harrison by decision, but those fourth and fifth rounds could get dicey if she has any cardio issues.

PREDICTION:  Kayla Harrison by DEC

Joe Pyfer (-375) vs. Kelvin Gastelum (+295):

These two were supposed to fight in Mexico City a few months ago, but Pyfer got sick from either food poisoning or the negative effects of elevation.  Believe whatever you want.  This is how I broke the fight down back then:

Joe Pyfer is coming off a first round knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault and has won four of five since joining the UFC.  He has three wins by first round knockout and the other coming by submission.  He’ll face long-time UFC veteran Kelvin Gastelum who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Daniel Rodriguez that took place at middleweight even though it was contracted to be a welterweight bout.  In his last six fights against legit middleweights, Gastelum is 1-5 with the lone win coming over Ian Heinisch.  Gastelum should be fighting at welterweight, but he’s too undisciplined to make the weight so here we are.  Pyfer will have a five inch height and three inch reach advantage.  I’m never going to pick Gastelum against legit middleweights or a middleweight prospect like Pyfer.  Gastelum still has solid boxing, but the size and strength disadvantages should be too much to overcome.  I don’t see Pyfer getting the finish, but I can see him landing a few takedowns on his way to a decision win.

PREDICTION:  Joe Pyfer by DEC

Patchy Mix (-180) vs. Mario Bautista (+150):

It’s been a long time coming, but former Bellator bantamweight champion Patchy Mix is finally in the UFC after the PFL/Bellator debacle.  Mix is 20-1 with fifteen wins inside the distance, thirteen by submission.  He’s stepping in on a couple weeks notice to face Mario Bautista who was originally supposed to face Marlon Vera.  Bautista has won seven straight and coming off an unpopular split decision win over Jose Aldo.  Mix is a strong submission grappler, but he’s an average striker and good, but not great wrestler.  He should have wrestling success though and be able to work his way into a back triangle on Bautista multiple times or maybe even lock in a submission, but if he struggles Bautista is the more comfortable striker and live for the upset.  I’d like to see Mix come in and dominate with a quick submission, but this one might go all three rounds.

PREDICTION:  Patchy Mix by DEC

Kevin Holland (-220) vs. Vicente Luque (+180):

Kicking off the PPV main card is a welterweight bout between Kevin Holland and Vicente Luque. After losing two straight at middleweight, Holland returned to welterweight, upsetting Gunnar Nelson by unanimous decision. Luque is coming off a 52 second first round submission of Themba Gorimbo. He's won two of three since returning from a brain injury issue, but Luque essentially quit in his loss to Joaquin Buckley and his ability to take punishment is a big question mark now. He outwrestled Rafael dos Anjos and quickly submitted Gorimbo, but like I said quit against Buckley. Holland is a dangerous striker and a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, but he has awful defensive wrestling. However, most of his wrestling issues have come at middleweight and Luque's wrestling performance against was an anomaly. Holland has a four inch height and five inch reach advantage over Luque and I see him using that length to outpoint Luque and potentially hurt him.

PREDICTION: Kevin Holland by DEC

Joshua Van (-700) vs. Bruno Silva (+500):

In the featured prelim, Joshua Van takes on Bruno Silva in a flyweight bout. Van has won three straight, all by unanimous decision, and has won six of seven since joining the UFC. Silva is coming off a third round knockout loss to Manel Kape after winning four straight, all inside the distance. Van is a slow starter, but once he gets going he puts on an incredible striking pace, mixing up his attack to the head and body which I love. Silva is a solid striker himself and is the more dangerous grappler, but Van has really solid takedown defense. Silva's durability isn't terrible, but I think he's going to wilt under the pressure of Van and get finished late.

PREDICTION: Joshua Van by 3rd RD KO/TKO

Azamat Murzakanov (-600) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+440):

Azamat Murzakanov was originally supposed to face Johnny Walker, but now he'll be facing another Brazilian striker in Brendson Ribeiro. Murzakanov is 4-0 in the UFC and 14-0 overall. He's finished three of four opponents in the UFC with strikes and ten of his eleven stoppage wins have come by strikes. Ribeiro has won two straight after losing his first two fights in the UFC. Most recently he submitted Diyar Nurgozhay via second round kimura. Sixteen of Ribeiro's seventeen career wins have come inside the distance as well as five of his seven losses. Ribeiro will have a five inch height advantage and almost ten inches of reach on Murzakanov, but I'm picking Murzakanov to win by knockout because I just don't think Ribeiro is any good. Murzakanov isn't a high volume striker, but once he starts to connect, it's only a matter of time before Ribeiro gets finished.

PREDICTION: Azamat Murzakanov by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Serghei Spivac (-155) vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (+130):

Serghei Spivac was originally supposed to face Shamil Gaziev, but now he'll be taking on Waldo Cortes-Acosta. Spivac is coming off a first round knockout loss to Jailton Almeida and has lost two of his last three. He was knocked out in the second round by Ciryl Gane as well with a first round submission win via armbar over Marcin Tybura in between. Cortes-Acosta has won four straight and six of seven since joining the UFC. He's coming off a second round knockout of Ryan Spann. His lone loss was to Marcos Rogerio de Lima which is quite relevant here as de Lima took and held down Cortes-Acosta with ease. Spivac is a much stronger submission grappler than de Lima so if he can have the same wrestling success, this should get ugly quick for Cortes-Acosta whose best skill is his boxing. Cortes-Acosta will need to land something big early, otherwise it will be all Spivac on the ground.

PREDICTION: Serghei Spivac by 1st RD SUB

Khaos Williams (-200) vs. Andreas Gustafsson (+165):

The third time is the charm for Khaos Williams as he faces Andreas Gustafsson after Uros Medic pulled out with an injury and Albert Tadevosyan failed his medicals. Gustafsson was supposed to fight Trevin Giles last week, but the fight was scrapped after weigh ins. Williams is coming off a second round submission loss to Gabriel Bonfim, while Gustafsson will make his UFC debut after a second round finish of Pat Pytlik on the Contender Series. Gustafsson is 11-2 with ten wins inside the distance, eight by knockout. Gustafsson's matchup with Giles last week was a much better one for him. Williams is a far more dangerous power puncher and technical striker, while Gustafsson is not defensively sound and just wants to bully people in the clinch. He's strong and physical, but I don't see him just pinning Williams to the fence and teeing off like he has against weaker competition. Once Williams finds space, I see him landing a big punch that puts Gustafsson away.

PREDICTION: Khaos Williams by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Wang Cong (-455) vs. Ariane da Silva (+350):

Wang Cong bounced back from her first pro loss to Gabriella Fernandes with a unanimous decision win over Bruna Brasil. Cong has won two of three since joining the UFC and is 7-1 overall. She'll face Ariane da Silva who has lost two straight after rattling off three straight upset wins. Most recently, da Silva was submitted by Jasmine Jasudavicius in the third round. Cong is an experienced kickboxer with a win over current UFC women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko, while da Silva is also an experienced striker. Her ground game is pretty poor, but this should primarily play out on the feet. Cong showed off some wrestling in her last fight, but da Silva's defensive wrestling has improved enough that I see this just being a striking match. Cong is one of many big favorites on this card that I don't trust at her current odds. She most likely wins, but da Silva is tempting as a nearly +400 underdog in a pure striking match.

PREDICTION: Wang Cong by DEC

JooSang Yoo (-535) vs. Jeka Saragih (+400):

Undefeated South Korean prospect JooSang Yoo will be making his UFC debut against Jeka Saragih who is 1-2 in the UFC and coming off a first round submission loss to Westin Wilson. Yoo is 8-0 with four wins inside the distance, three by knockout. Saragih is a dangerous striker as we saw in his first round knockout of Lucas Alexander, but he's pretty awful on the ground. Anshul Jubli absolutely obliterated him on the ground and Jubli is a low level talent. Yoo is well-rounded so maybe he decides to stand with Saragih, but the path to least resistance lies in the grappling. I don't love Yoo as such a big favorite in his UFC debut, but if he fights smart, he should eventually finish Saragih on the mat.

PREDICTION: JooSang Yoo by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Quillan Salkilld (-470) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+360):

Quillan Salkilld had a successful UFC debut, knocking out Anshul Jubli in just nineteen seconds. The Australian lightweight is 8-1 with six wins inside the distance. He'll face Yanal Ashmouz who has won two of three in the UFC with a first round knockout of Sam Patterson and most recently a unanimous decision win over Trevor Peek. Salkilld will have a three inch height and seven inch reach advantage over Ashmouz. Ashmouz certainly throws hard and has a puncher's chance, but Salkilld throws more volume on the feet and is the better wrestler. Salkilld by decision is the pick.

PREDICTION: Quillan Salkilld by DEC

MarQuel Mederos (-170) vs. Mark Choinski (+140):

In the opening prelim of the night, MarQuel Mederos welcomes Mark Choinski to the UFC. Mederos was supposed to face Bolaji Oki, but I guess he got sick so they shifted him to this card. Mederos is coming off a split decision win over Austin Hubbard after a unanimous decision win over Landon Quinones in his UFC debut. Choinski is stepping up on short notice, but he did have a fight scheduled next week so he's in fighting shape. He's 8-0 with six wins inside the distance, five by submission. He was lightweight champion in the APFC. Choinski comes from a wrestling background, while Mederos prefers to strike. Mederos had a little bit of trouble with the wrestling of Hubbard and barely squeaked by so maybe Choinski can implement the same gameplan, but I'll go with Mederos being the superior striker and winning another close decision.

PREDICTION: MarQuel Mederos by DEC

UFC 316 TICKET

SATURDAY JUNE 7TH

MAIN CARD:

Merab Dvalishvili/Joe Pyfer -150 (1.5u)

Kayla Harrison DEC +220 (0.5u)

Patchy Mix -180 (1.35u)

PRELIMS:

Joshua Van/Kevin Holland -150 (1.5u)

Van RD3 +800 (0.1u)

Serghei Spivac -155 (1.55u)

Spivac ITD +180 (0.5u)

JooSang Yoo ITD -160 (0.8u)