UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena Saturday 5/10

The UFC is back on PPV this week from Montreal, Quebec, Canada with two title fights and a decent undercard.

IMPORTANT

Predictions DO NOT EQUAL official wagers!!!

ITD = inside the distance, meaning a fighter must win by knockout, submission or disqualification. Listed as double chance on some books.

Last event (UFC Des Moines): -2.5u

2025 YTD: -9.01u

Belal Muhammad (-185) vs. Jack Della Maddalena (+155):

In the main event, UFC welterweight champion Belal Muhammad will defend his title for the first time as he takes on Jack Della Maddalena. Muhammad won the title last July, defeating Leon Edwards by unanimous decision. He's on a ten fight winning streak and hasn't lost a fight since January of 2019. Della Maddalena has won seven straight since joining the UFC. He's coming off a third round knockout of Gilbert Burns last March in which he suffered a broken arm. He was supposed to fight Edwards about six weeks ago, but was given a title shot when Shavkat Rakhmonov got injured.  Della Maddalena is a sharp striker, but his defensive wrestling has been a big concern throughout his UFC run.  He’s a good scrambler when taken down, but Muhammad should be able to rack up takedowns and avoid taking any big damage on the feet.  There’s a lot of love for Della Maddalena, but Muhammad retains his title in a hard fought decision. 

PREDICTION:  Belal Muhammad by DEC

Manon Fiorot (-140) vs. Valentina Shevchenko (+120):

In the co-main event, UFC women's flyweight champion Valentina Shevchenko will defend her title against Manon Fiorot. Shevchenko won the title back from Alexa Grasso and now comes in as the underdog to Fiorot who is 7-0 in the UFC. Fiorot is coming in off a five round unanimous decision win over top contender Erin Blanchfield.  Her last five wins are all by unanimous decision.  Fiorot is mostly a striker, while Shevchenko mixes up her strikimg and wrestling well.  Fiorot’s grappling has been untested, but we should get some questions answered in this fight.  I went against Shevchenko in the third fight with Grasso and boy was that stupid.  I will not be making that mistake again.  The striking will be competitive, but Shevchenko’s ability to get this fight to the mat should seal the deal for her.

PREDICTION:  Valentina Shevchenko by DEC

Jose Aldo (-190) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (+160):

Jose Aldo had a short lived retirement, returning to the UFC a year ago. He defeated Jonathan Martinez by unanimous decision and then lost a controversial split decision to Mario Bautista. Now he faces Aiemann Zahabi in some strange matchmaking. Zahabi is a solid fighter. But at this point in Aldo's career, Zahabi wouldn't be on my wishlist as an opponent. Zahabi has won five straight with a unanimous decision win over Pedro Munhoz in his most recent bout. Three wins are by unanimous decision with the other two by first round knockout.  This fight is now a featherweight bout as Aldo was struggling to make bantamweight and this news doesn’t change my view on the fight as I’m still picking Aldo.  Aldo isn’t going to run away with the striking, but he should land the more impactful and damaging shots while stuffing any takedown attempts.

PREDICTION:  Jose Aldo by DEC

Natalia Silva (-245) vs. Alexa Grasso (+200):

Natalia Silva has won six straight fights, most recently defeating Jessica Andrade by unanimous decision. Four of her six wins have come by decision with the other two coming by knockout. She faces Alexa Grasso who lost her UFC women's flyweight title to Valentina Shevchenko after a trilogy of fights. This will be Grasso's first fresh opponent since October of 2022 where she defeated Viviane Araujo by unanimous decision.  Both Silva and Grasso prefer to strike with Silva having a more well-rounded approach, while Grasso is mostly a boxer.  Grasso has some sneaky grappling upside, but Silva has very good takedown defense and has good movement.  It should be hard for Grasso to track her down so I see Silva dictating the range and pace of the fight en route to a decision win.

PREDICTION:  Natalia Silva by DEC

Benoit Saint-Denis (-1350) vs. Kyle Prepolec (+800):

Opening up the main card is a lightweight bout between Benoit Saint-Denis and Kyle Prepolec who replaces the injured Joel Alvarez on short notice. Saint-Denis has lost two straight to Renato Moicano and Dustin Poirier after rattling off five straight wins, all by finish. This will be Prepolec's second stint in the UFC. He went 0-2 in 2019, losing unanimous decisions to Austin Hubbard and Nordine Taleb. He's won four of five since getting released by the UFC.  Prepolec has some solid striking and might be able to hurt Saint-Denis who is a bad defensive striker, but the grappling is where Prepolec is going to run into problems.  Saint-Denis is an aggressive and dangerous grappler and should really be able to dominate Prepolec on the ground and pay off his massive pricetag. 

PREDICTION:  Benoit Saint-Denis by 2nd RD SUB

Mike Malott (-205) vs. Charles Radtke (+170):

In the featured prelim of the night, Mike Malott faces Charles Radtke. Malott has won four of five since joining the UFC with three finishes. He's coming off a unanimous decision win over Trevin Giles. Radtke is coming off a 51 second first round knockout of Matthew Semelsberger and has won three of four since joining the UFC with two wins by first round knockout and his loss being a first round knockout to Carlos Prates. Malott is a solid fighter, but the loss to Neil Magny raises concerns. Malott gassed badly late in that fight and was finished.  Then against Giles, he looked unwilling to push a pace in fear of gassing.  Radtke has been a very popular pick this week and I agree with the movement in favor of Radtke.  Malott should have a grappling edge, but I’d be surprised if he just smokes Radtke on the ground.  Radtke has preferred to strike in the UFC, but he has a good grappling background.  Radtke is going to want to turn this into a dogfight and I favor his power and aggression on the feet.  This will be a good test for Malott to see how he handles the pressure, but I think he fails the test again.

PREDICTION:  Charles Radtke by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Jasmine Jasudavicius (-285) vs. Jessica Andrade (+230):

Jasmine Jasudavicius has won four straight after picking up a unanimous decision win over Mayra Bueno Silva. She's 7-2 in the UFC with five unanimous decisions and two wins by third round D'arce choke. She'll face Jessica Andrade who is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Natalia Silva and has lost four of her last six. I'm a big Jasudavicius fan and like her in this matchup with Andrade. Jasudavicius is going to have a six inch height and reach advantage over Andrade who certainly can crack on the feet, but her ground game is a weakness. Jasudavicius will pressure forward, probably eating a few shots, but once she clinches up with Andrade the takedowns should come easy and then she'll go to work with ground and pound. Jasudavicius either pounds her out or snatches up another submission.

PREDICTION: Jasmine Jasudavicius by 3rd RD SUB

Ion Cutelaba (-120) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (+100):

Ion Cutelaba has won two straight and three of his last four, most recently submitting Ibo Aslan in the first round. Now he faces Modestas Bukauskas who has won four of five since returning to the UFC. He's coming off a first round knockout of Raffael Cerqueira. I've never been high on Bukauskas, while I've backed Cutelaba plenty of times throughout his UFC career. Cutelaba used to be an absolute wildman, but he's starting to pace himself better and not just be a kill or be killed fighter. Bukauskas may be able to slow Cutelaba down with leg kicks, but Cutelaba will make this an ugly fight and that's not what Bukauskas likes. Cutelaba is a solid wrestler and if he can pace himself, he should be able to grind out Bukauskas.

PREDICTION: Ion Cutelaba by DEC

Navajo Stirling (-310) vs. Ivan Erslan (+250):

Navajo Stirling picked up a unanimous decision win over Tuco Tokkos in his UFC debut to improve his undefeated record to 6-0. Four of his six career wins are by knockout. He'll face Ivan Erslan who lost his UFC debut to Ion Cutelaba. He's 14-4 overall with eleven wins inside the distance, ten by knockout. Stirling and Erslan both prefer to strike, but I have to favor the more technical striking of Stirling in this matchup. Erslan has power, but he doesn't have the volume to keep up with Stirling and I see Stirling winning another decision.

PREDICTION: Navajo Stirling by DEC

Marc-Andre Barriault (-160) vs. Bruno Silva (+135):

Marc-Andre Barriault has lost three straight and he's been knocked out in the first round in back to back fights. He'll take on Bruno Silva who has lost four straight and six of his last seven. It's interesting that Silva is still in the UFC after his latest loss to Ismail Naurdiev where after the fight he announced he's been suffering from crippling anxiety since his loss to Alex Pereira. For that reason, I have to side with Barriault. His durability is clearly on the decline, but if Silva is doubting himself, facing a fighter with the pace of Barriault is bad news. Maybe Silva can clip Barriault early, but if he doesn't, I see Barriault taking over and winning a clear decision with a late stoppage on the table.

PREDICTION: Marc-Andre Barriault by DEC

Jeong Yeong Lee (-140) vs. Daniel Santos (+120):

Jeong Yeong Lee was supposed to face Gavin Tucker, but now he'll face Daniel Santos who takes the fight on short notice. Santos pulled out of a fight with Davey Grant last month, the fifth time he's withdrawn from a fight since joining the UFC. He'll be making the move to featherweight for this bout. Santos has won two straight after losing his UFC debut to Julio Arce. Lee was knocked out in just over a minute by Hyder Amil after winning his first two fights in the UFC, although I thought he lost to Zhiya in the Road to UFC final. I don't know what the deal is with Santos. I assume he struggled with the weight cut against Grant so it's good this fight is at featherweight. He'll be giving up some size to Lee, but overall I believe Santos is a more dangerous fighter. Both are willing to slug it out, but I trust Santos' durability a bit more. I'll pick Santos, but it's a toss up and another fight I won't be backing with my money.

PREDICTION: Daniel Santos by 2nd RD KO/TKO

Bekzat Almakhan (-150) vs. Brad Katona (+125):

In the opening prelim of the night, Bekzat Almakhan faces Brad Katona in a bantamweight bout. Almakhan hasn't fought in over a year since losing his UFC debut to Umar Nurmagomedov. He's 11-2 overall with ten wins inside the distance, nine by knockout. Katona has lost two of his last three and is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Jean Matsumoto. He's 2-2 in his second stint in the UFC and 4-4 overall in the promotion. I'm pretty surprised that Almakhan is favored here and I'm going to back Katona as the underdog, but it's with very little confidence. Almakhan dropped Nurmagomedov early in their fight, but went on to do nothing else and lost a one-sided decision. Katona isn't great in any one area, but he's good in all areas and durable, never being finished in his career. I don't think Almakhan will be the first to finish him and needs to prove himself more at this level before I back him. Katona's fights are extremely close so even though he's my official pick, I don't feel strong enough to bet on him.

PREDICTION: Brad Katona by DEC

UFC 315 TICKET

SATURDAY MAY 10TH

MAIN CARD:

Belal Muhammad -185 (1.85u)

Valentina Shevchenko +120 (1u)

Jose Aldo -190 (0.95u)

Benoit Saint-Denis SUB -110 (0.55u)

PRELIMS:

Charles Radtke +170 (0.5u)

Jasmine Jasudavicius -3.5 -135 (1.35u)

Jasudavicius ITD +180 (0.5u)

Jasudavicius RD3 +850 (0.1u)

Ion Cutelaba -120 (0.6u)

Marc-Andre Barriault -160 (1.2u)

Barriault RD3 +900 (0.1u)