Tennis Picks 7/25
ATP 250 Kitzbuhel (clay), ATP 250 Atlanta (hard court).
Thursday, 7/25, 8am ET:
ATP Kitzbuhel: Pedro Martinez (-105) to win over Facundo Diaz Acosta (-120), .5u.
Martinez leads this head to head two wins to zero losses all on clay like we have here. FDA really hasn't done much to impress me recently, with some of his best results being back in April when he made the quarterfinals of Barcelona. Since then he went on a four match losing streak before getting some wins this week. So far FDA has defeated Coria nad Galan both in three set matches. Martinez has actually been in a similar boat, struggling with results until a few weeks ago when he made the semifinals of Hamburg with wins over Arnaldi, Blanchet, and Cerundolo in three hard fought matches. This week he handled Nagal in straight sets so I think he should be the fresher of the two players here and with the head to head advantage I don't mind taking a shot on him as an underdog.
Thursday, 7/25, 3pm ET:
ATP Atlanta: Reilly Opelka (-120) to win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (-105), .5u.
Opelka just got back on tour last week and managed to make the semifinals of Newport on grass. I think he should also do well here due to the quick conditions and he does not seem bothered by the humidity. Opelka did a great job closing out in straight sets in the first round here over Kovacevic, whereas last week he found himself in too many three set matches. This is ADF's first week back from injury where he basically skipped grass season, only playing one match on it in June. He's usually best on clay but ADF has been underperforming this year in general. Opelka is known for his incredible serve since he is almost seven feet tall and is a classic "serve bot" player. ADF is known for his hot shot movement around the court. But since he hasn't been playing too well even before his injury break I'm not sure how well he will do returning Opelka's power. If ADF was in his best form I'd say he would have a chance if he could get a rally going, exploiting Opelka's lack of movement ability. But I don't believe that's the ADF we are dealing with here so I'll stick with Opelka to get the win thanks to his massive serve.
ATP Atlanta, Thursday, 7/25, 7pm ET:
Juncheng Shang +1.5 Games Spread (-105) vs Ben Shelton, .5u.
Ben Shelton vs Juncheng Shang, Over 23.5 Total Games (-120), .75u.
I'm a big Shang fan, starting to make his way from college to the professional tour last year. Both of these guys are young lefties, but their styles are totally different. Shang relies heavily on his movement whereas Shelton relies heavily on his big serve. We saw Shelton have a big dip in results during the grass season in the leadup events to Wimbledon, but then he was able to make the second week of Wimbledon. It was a real grind and struggle, though. Shang played well during the grass season with a quarter final at a challenger, and the quarterfinals of Eastbourne where he got four wins in a row due to having to play qualifying rounds. Shang managed to take Fritz to two tiebreak sets in Eastbourne as well before losing there. Although he lost in the second round of Wimbledon he took Dimitrov to a hard fought five set thriller. Now Shang has come through qualifying here with three wins, only dropping one set. Shang did really well this time last year as well, making it far at a Chicago challenger event, then matching this result here, and making the round of sixteen at Washington DC. These are all really impressive results considering he's so new and fresh. Shelton gets a lot of hype, but Shang actually leads this head to head two wins to zero losses, both at Atlanta and Washington last year. He tends to do really well against lefties and is on a five match winning streak against them, spanning across three surfaces. So far this year his record against lefties is seven wins to one loss. Shelton is on a three match winning streak against lefties, but all were lengthy and close matches. Shelton tends to play many extended matches in general so I'm playing both the underdog spread and the over games here.
TENNIS VIP TICKET
THURSDAY 7/25
Martinez to win (-105) l .5u
Opelka to win (-120) l .5u
Shang +1.5 Games Spread (-105) l .5u
Shelton v Shang, ov23.5 Games (-120) l .75u
Match Rescheduled From Yesterday
Karatsev v Tiafoe, ov22.5 Games (-140) l .75u
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