Tennis Picks 4/7
Estoril ATP 250 and Charleston WTA 500.
Start Time Friday, 4/7, 1:30pm ET:
ATP Estoril: Sebastian Baez +3.5 Games Spread (-115) vs Casper Ruud.
Ruud has been having a difficult time this year, and he admitted that doing a full exhibition tour during the off season was a bad idea. He did do a lighter schedule in February but he still isn't in his best form. Before last year he was known for being more of a clay specialist, but during 2022 he proved that he can also be a threat on hard courts. We thought he'd be getting back into form being back on the dirt, but instead he still looks uncomfortable. Baez spent February on the clay and is considered a specialist, coming away with a title at Cordoba, a quarter-final at Rio De Janeiro, and a semifinal at Santiago. Taking the games spread here is playing it safe, but I do think he could also have a good shot at winning.
Start Time Friday, 4/7, 7pm ET:
WTA Charleston: Jessica Pegula (-120) to win over Paula Badosa (+100).
I just can't bet against Pegula right now. I know she was on the ropes in her last match and somehow came back to win, but her record against players ranked outside the top 20 is incredible in the last year, going 42-5. She's been way more consistent than Badosa this year for sure. Badosa has had a negative attitude on the court and even when she has leads I've seen her throw them away. Her 2021 was incredible, 2022 was a mess, and now she's still trying to put back the pieces. She has the skills to defeat Pegula, definitely, but right now she's still shaky. I'm so glad she's having a good tournament here, but Pegula can easily disrupt that today. These two really have never played, their only other meeting ended in the first set due to an injury retirement. Both are great on clay surfaces and neither did well at Charleston 2022. So this is more of a shoot from the hip bet and going with the more consistent player. I want to say Pegula will have the crowd support, but Badosa also has fans everywhere she goes. This promises to be an incredible prime time match that I'm looking forward to.
ATP Estoril, FRI, 12pm ET: Quentin Halys (+110) to win over Dominic Thiem (-135).
TENNIS VIP TICKET
Baez +3.5 Games Spread (-115) l .5u
Pegula to win (-120) l .5u