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Tennis Picks 4/24


Madrid Masters 1000.

 

Wednesday, 4/24, 5am ET:

WTA: Sloane Stephens vs Martina Trevisan, Under 20.5 Total Games (-120), .5u


Similar to Stephens, I am not a Trevisan fan so I don't mind betting the under to fade her here. Stephens famously had a negative Trevisan comment in a press conference years ago, so I'm surprised it took this long to get a first meeting. Trevisan has been having a terrible year, but if she's going to play well it would likely be on clay. She can be a tough lefty fighter out there, but many times she gets out played. Stephens really isn't the best player out there, she tends to be apathetic on the court these days and isn't near her peak. But despite this attitude she's coming off a title at Rouen with wins over Stearns, Pliskova, Yue Yuan, Garcia, and Linette. Stephens has been better on clay these past few years despite her only major win being on hard courts. She's a great mover and counter puncher, and her numbers against lefties isn't bad. I prefer this under bet to the spread since the spread is a bit too large for me. I'm hoping Stephens can efficiently take down Trevisan today and back up her anti Trevisan statements.

 

Wednesday, 4/24, 7:30am ET:

ATP: Luciano Darderi (+105) to win over Gael Monfils (-130), .5u.


I think Monfils is in a dip right now and I'm hating the men's matches today so I'm going to try for this underdog play. Monfils has told reporters that he actually doesn't like the clay in his older veteran years and ever since he stated that he's been struggling to get more than one win at these clay tournaments. It's possible he comes out hungry today since he's been flopping, but looking at Darderi I like my chances. Darderi is a clay specialist and so far this year he took the title at Cordoba, made the quarterfinals of Santiago, and the semifinals of Houston, all clay tournaments. I will say the odds are against Darderi to win this since most of his tournaments have been on the lower tiered tour, but so far this year he is dipping into the professional level with decent success. Also the clay courts here in Madrid play faster than most clay tournaments, so this could benefit Monfils. So to me this underdog play is more of a fade of Monfils's current dip and personal comments going into this surface. Not only that, but Monfils hasn't had a good run at this tournament since 2010. Granted this is just the first round, but I'll take my chances on the clay specialist.

 

ATP, Wednesday, 4/24, 7:30am ET:

  • Christopher Eubanks +3.5 Games Spread (-120) vs Botic Van De Zandschulp, . 5u.

  • Botic Van De Zandschulp vs Christopher Eubanks, Over 0.5 Tiebreaks (+115), .5u.


Wow, both of these players suck this year. Eubanks is struggling to get wins even on hard courts going 4 wins to eight losses in total. Normally he does well on fast surfaces since he has a huge serve. Some would put Eubanks in serve bot category, so he typically doesn't do well on clay at all. BVDZ is seven wins to twelve losses, so somewhat better than Eubanks for this year. Normally BVDZ is decent on this surface but he hasn't gotten any decent runs at any tournaments this year. All of his wins have been one offs, losing in the next round. I don't trust either of these players at all. But we almost never get Eubanks spread this large so I'm taking the bait. And to top it off I'll do the tiebreak prop instead of the over games, but I also like the over games so you could stack this and throw that in there as well, if you'd like. The only reason I'm leaning towards the tiebreak option is I can see either of these guys flopping the rest of the match if they lose the first set. Due to Eubanks having a big serve he tends to get involved in many tie break sets and extended matches. The courts play faster here in Madrid than at other clay tournaments so this should help Eubanks serve. Normally I don't love betting matches with two junk players, but the books are giving us some great bait odds here.

 

WTA, Wednesday, 4/24, 1pm ET:

  • Mirra Andreeva vs Taylor Townsend, Over 20.5 Total Games (-125), .75u.

  • Taylor Townsend +3.5 Games Spread (-130) vs Mirra Andreeva, .5u.


Honestly I'm not sure what I think about Andreeva right now. We really haven't seen her play much this year, she started out with decent runs at Brisbane and the Australian Open, then she really wasn't around much in February and March. Andreeva busted out early in her only two tournaments during that stretch, unable to get a win. She did however get her clay season started last week at Rouen where she defeated Podoroska and Avanesyan before falling to Kalinina. At this tournament last year Andreeva had a breakthrough three wins, and shortly after she earned five wins coming through qualifying at Roland Garros. She will be defending ranking points here, something she isn't used to doing being so new on tour. Andreeva can take it to the best, especially on clay, and she does have decent stats against lefties. But Townsend is coming off a few good tournaments having three wins at Indian Wells, four wins at Miami, and then two wins on clay at Charleston. Granted she did play qualifying at both Indian Wells and Miami, but she's working and playing top players. Townsend took Azarenka to three sets at Charleston and the past few years she's been doing well on this surface. Townsend is tough and crafty, similar to Andreeva, so I like the idea that this goes the distance. Assuming we get a third set then the total games could be close so I don't mind also going for the underdog spread. I'm really curious to see how this turns out with some pressure on Andreeva.

 

TENNIS VIP TICKET

WEDNESDAY 4/24

 
  • Stephens v Trevisan, un20.5 Games (-120) l .5u

  • Darderi to win (+105) l .5u

  • Eubanks +3.5 Games Spread (-120) l .5u

  • BVDZ v Eubanks, ov0.5 Tiebreaks (+115) l .5u

  • Andreeva v Townsend, ov20.5 Games (-125) l .75u

  • Taylor Townsend +3.5 Games Spread (-130) l .5u

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