Tennis Picks 3/30

Miami Open Masters 1000.

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Sunday, 3/30, 3pm ET:

ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Novak Djokovic, Over 22.5 Total Games (-110), .5u.

I can easily say Djokovic takes the win here, but I can’t ignore how good Mensik has been serving this tournament. Both of these guys have been serving better than the rest of the field, hence why they are meeting in the final. Good serving usually means holds, meaning lots of games. Djokovic has played three tiebreak sets here, with Mensik playing five tiebreak sets. I understand Djokovic is considered the best tennis player so Mensik should have more opposition today, but I still am not sure Djokovic can get decent returns against these speeds and placements. Their only previous meeting went to Djokovic in three sets last October in Shanghai, with Mensik winning one tiebreak set. My biggest worry here is this will be Mensik’s biggest final, so we really don’t know how nerves will play a factor for him. Mensik did really well in finals at the challenger level, but his only other final at this level was Doha where he lost to Khachanov last year in two sets, losing a first set tiebreak. If Mensik can keep his nerves together I can see him making this competitive so I like playing the over games. As far as tiebreaks go, Djokovic used to be known for how well he played during tiebreaks, refusing to make unforced errors and serving incredibly. But last year we saw a huge dip in performance from him during tiebreaks, with some similarities already this year to the lower level of play from him. I won’t be surprised if Mensik is able to win if they go to a tiebreak set, as long as he can play through the nerves.

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TENNIS VIP TICKET

SUNDAY 3/30

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Mensik v Djokovic, ov22.5 Games (-110) l .5u