Tennis Picks 3/29

Miami Open Masters 1000.

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Saturday, 3/29, 3pm ET:

WTA: Aryna Sabalenka 2:0 Set Betting (-115) vs Jessica Pegula, .5u.

Sabalenka leads this head to head six wins to two losses. Their first meeting back in 2020 went to Pegula in three sets, and the 2023 Cancun year end finals went to Pegula in two sets. I barely take that Cancun result seriously since the conditions there were truly awful between bad bounces and horrible weather. Generally their matches go in straight sets with only that first meeting going three sets. Sabalenka has been truly impressive this week, not dropping a set. Pegula has had to fight against Kalinskaya, Raducanu, and Eala in three sets, with only two straight sets wins over Pera and Kostyuk. Pegula has played well at this tournament in past years, with this being Sabalenka’s first deep run at this event. But it is surprising Sabalenka has not done better here before since she has a residence in Miami and plays well on faster hard courts like these. Despite Pegula being a great mover and defender, I have to think Sabalenka will likely take this title without dropping a set. She tends to be able to over power Pegula, either pushing her back behind the baseline or rushing her. I do think Pegula is the better mover, so Sabalenka relies on shorter points and powerful shot making. She is usually better at executing her plan against Pegula, and considering these conditions suit Sabalenka’s style I’m in agreement with the books on this one.

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TENNIS VIP TICKET

SATURDAY 3/29

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Sabalenka 2:0 Sets (-115) l .5u