Tennis Picks 3/28

Miami Open Masters 1000.

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Friday, 3/28, 3pm ET:

ATP: Novak Djokovic 2:0 Set Betting (-125) vs Grigor Dimitrov, .75u.

This is Dimitrov’s first decent tournament this year due to four injury retirements already. His previous round win over Cerundolo was very close and competitive, with Dimitrov falling during the end of the third set. His movement was clearly hampered, and then his body was struggling with the humidity and likely a combination of body fatigue. Medical teams had to check his blood pressure and help him off the court following this win. I know Dimitrov has had a day off to recover, but being older, having a combination of health issues in that match, and his numerous retirements from injury this year, makes me really lean into Djokovic to take this without too much difficulty. Djokovic decisively leads the head to head twelve wins to one loss, the one loss coming back in 2013 on the clay at Madrid. Their most recent meetings were two years ago in 2023, where Dimitrov was only able to take a set from Djokovic on the clay at Rome. It seems that Dimitrov’s best chances against Djokovic have been on the slower surface over the years, but they have had some competitive matches on hard courts considering their history goes back to 2012. Although Djokovic has had a rough start to this year, he is looking to be in good form at this tournament and seems determined to take the trophy. Djokovic likely feels he has to prove he is still relevant despite his age and dip in form overall in the past year. I don’t see Dimitrov, especially in this weaker condition, being competitive against an in form Djokovic, who is seeking his seventh Miami title.

Friday, 3/28, 7pm ET:

ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Taylor Fritz, Over 23.5 Total Games (-110), .5u.

I definitely see this as a bit risky but two things really push me into taking the over. Firstly Mensik has a decent record when playing against top ten opponents, with a fifty percent win rate, which is much higher than most of the players near Mensik’s ranking. He is a very threatening young up and coming player on the tour. Admittedly he has had an easier time getting to this semifinal with a withdrawal in the round of sixteen, and playing a very fatigued Fils in the quarter final. Mensik’s most impressive win this week was over Draper who just came off the Indian Wells title. I definitely expect Fritz to win here today, but here comes my second point. Mensik has been better in tiebreaks this year compared to Fritz, who has only won two of the seven tiebreaks he has played. In comparison Mensik has won six of nine tiebreaks during this 2025 season. So to me if Mensik can hang in there and force a tiebreak against Fritz, he could have a decent chance to win a set. Since I think Fritz ultimately wins this match, that could mean we get three sets out of this. The real trick will be Mensik forcing a tiebreak upon Fritz. Mensik did lose their only previous meeting at the US Open in 2023, but Mensik is very young and has improved greatly since that match. Their sets, however, were not even close. So this is definitely risky, but I’m hoping Mensik’s improvements will keep this competitive. With a decent price like this, I will take my chances.

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TENNIS VIP TICKET

FRIDAY 3/28

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• Djokovic 2:0 Sets (-125) l .75u

• Mensik v Fritz, ov23.5 Games (-110) l .5u