Tennis Picks 3/13
- J-Rube
- Mar 12
- 4 min read
Indian Wells Masters 1000.
Thursday, 3/13, 2pm ET:
ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Holger Rune, Over 22.5 Total Games (-135), .75u.
Griekspoor tends to play lengthy matches throughout his career, and so far this tournament each of his matches have included tiebreak sets. I will say the previous two rounds Griekspoor was efficient enough to ruin the over play, but his opponents were not as experienced in Mpetshi Perricard and Watanuki. I expect Rune to be competitive throughout this match and I do lean him to win. Rune has had a rough year due to injury but he has looked healthy this week and was extremely impressive with his straight sets win over Tsitsipas in the previous round. Both of these guys are great movers and shot makers so I’m hoping we get a competitive match. Rune has actually never defeated Griekspoor before, so it may be a decent bet to throw in the underdog spread of even a small moneyline bet on Griekspoor considering this matchup. I’d rather bet the over since both of their previous matches on clay went over this games count.
Thursday, 3/13, 2pm ET:
WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng, Under 19.5 Total Games (-105), 1u.
It almost doesn’t matter what Swiatek’s head to head is against anyone, if she’s at Indian Wells she’s living her best life. But, since I brought it up, Swiatek leads this head to head six wins to one loss, with Qinwen Zheng defeating her at last year’s Olympics. Three of their four meetings went to decider sets, which is a lot considering how efficient Swiatek normally is. If I thought Qinwen Zheng was in top form right now then I might be inclined to give her more credit, but she has had a slow start to this year and dealt with an injury, missing many January tournaments. Clearly Qinwen Zheng came to this event low in confidence after a three match losing streak. She has played into form by defeating Azarenka, Sun, and Kostyuk all in straight sets, but Swiatek is a huge step up in skill compared to those opponents. The last time Swiatek played a match over this games count at Indian Wells was two years ago against Andreescu. Even her loss to Rybakina in 2023 went sixteen games. Considering Qinwen Zheng’s 2025 so far, I don’t think she’s in a state to challenge Swiatek at one of her most successful tournaments where she has won the title twice before (2023, 2024).
Thursday, 3/13, 4pm ET:
ATP: Daniil Medvedev 2:0 Set Betting (+100) vs Arthur Fils, .5u.
All year I feel like Fils has been underperforming but he also has had some injury issues. Still, even when Fils is in good form he lacks efficiency. I don’t think he will have room for mistakes against someone on Medvedev’s level. Their only previous meeting was a while back during the fall indoor 2023 season where Medvedev won easily in straight sets. One thing you learn if you follow tennis is the more Medvedev complains about a tournament, the better he plays there. Historically Medvedev hates the courts at Indian Wells, but he continues to make deep runs and put up good results here, making back to back finals in 2023 and 2024. He is yet to lose a set this tournament, but Michelsen retired early during their match due to illness. Medvedev impressively destroyed Paul in the previous round, even delivering a bagel second set (6-0). Fils would have to be in excellent form throughout to trouble Medvedev today, and so far this year I haven’t seen this efficiency from Fils. So far this tournament he only had one straight sets win over Diallo, but had to play decider sets against Musetti and Giron. Medvedev is a totally different player and I expect him to out-play and out-wit Fils.
Thursday, 3/13, 4pm ET:
WTA: Mirra Andreeva 2:0 Set Betting (+105) vs Elina Svitolina, .5u.
I find this match incredibly difficult to find an angle for, but with not many matches left I’m going with this bet. Andreeva is on a nine match win streak having won Dubai prior to coming here. Only one of those nine matches has gone to a decider set. But Svitolina is an extremely tough and difficult contender, with many of her matches being lengthy. Over half of her matches at Indian Wells since her first appearance in 2013 have gone to three sets. So we have one player who has been incredibly efficient recently, against another player who tends to play lengthy matches. You can make an argument either way. But with how good Andreeva’s current form is, and considering her dominant 6-1, 6-2 win over Rybakina in the previous round, I have to lean towards her continuing to dismantle top players in the field. I do want to say before we even get there that if we wind up with an Andreeva vs Swiatek semifinal I’m bailing on Andreeva since Swiatek owns this tournament.
TENNIS VIP TICKET
THURSDAY 3/13
Griekspoor v Rune, ov22.5 Games (-135) l .75u
Swiatek v Qinwen Zheng, un19.5 Games (-105) l 1u
Medvedev 2:0 Sets (+100) l .5u
Andreeva 2:0 Sets (+105) l .5u
Favorites are in bold.
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