Saturday CFB - Conference Championships
- Kyle Kirms
- 15 hours ago
- 8 min read
BIG 12
BYU VS TEXAS TECH - 12 PM
McGuire got paid. Texas Tech's first appearance in the Big 12 Championship in 30 years. This is also BYU's first appearence in the game but they have an excuse... it's only their 3rd year in the conference.
As far as playoff implications... it's safe to say that Texas Tech is in no matter what. I mean maybe if BYU blows em out, there's a chance they can drop out of the top 11 but I doubt it. BYU most likely needs to win this game to get in. I would imagine if BYU loses this game, they drop. Whether or not that's fair... that's a question for another show.
Well we know what happened last time. BYU had just 255 yards of offense in the game and their 7 points came in the 4th quarter when they were down 26-0. Obviously, this game was in Lubbock. This game's at AT&T.
That's not unique... Texas Tech has done that to everybody this year. LB Jacob Rogriguez was named Big 12 DPOY and EDGE David Bailey was Big 12 defensive lineman of the year.
The Texas Tech defense has looked slightly more vulnerable on the road this year but it's still pretty elite. So maybe BYU can have a bit more success in this one, but this defense is one of the best in the country. BYU star RB LJ Martin wasn't 100% at the time. He was banged up in the Iowa State game the week before. He's now back to his full workload... in fact, he's running the ball really well right now.
But this BYU offense has not been as good away from Provo.
That hasn't stopped them from handling their business.
This Texas Tech defense is just on a different level. They lost starting DT Skyler Gill-Howard and I thought we'd see the defense take a small step backwards... look at their numbers in the 5 games without him.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I think BYU can compete in this game. This defense is very strong.
Remember... Texas Tech's offense didn't win them the first game against BYU. The reason they won that game so comfortably was the defense. The offense actually really struggled in that game.
And that game was at home in Lubbock... where Behren Morton has always played considerably better throughout his career. This Texas Tech offense hasn't been nearly as efficient away from home.
The run is probably not gonna be there. Texas Tech wasn't able to run the ball in the first matchup.
So we're talking about Behren Morton, away from Lubbock, with no run support, against BYU's defense.
I'm on BYU +13.5 and under 50.5 in this one.
MAC
MIAMI OHIO VS WESTERN MICHIGAN - 12 PM
Miami Ohio playing in their 3rd consecutive MAC Championship game. This is Western Michigan's first trip to the championship since 2016 when they won it.
Western Michigan only has 1 conference loss this year... and it came against Miami Ohio.
An important note to take about that loss though. Dequan Finn did a lot of the damage in that game. This mighta been his best game of the season.
Dequan Finn left the problem. Then Henry Hesson took over... that didn't workout well. They're now onto their 3rd string QB, Redshirt Freshman Thomas Gotkowski. He actually played well last week in his first career start. It was a home game against Ball State, one of the worst teams in the conference.
This is a very different situation. This is the conference championship against arguably the best defense in the MAC (maybe Toledo would have something to say about that)... but it's very strong.
Western Michigan's got the best pass rush in the conference. I know these numbers look great for Gotkowski but keep in mind... that's from 1 1/2 games... most of it was Ball State.
We don't wanna pretend that Western Michigan's defense has been perfect. We just saw EMU moving the ball on em last week. But EMU has Noah Kim at QB... not a Freshman making his 2nd career start in the conference championship game.
And another thing... Gotkowski had run support last week. They played a home game against Ball State. Let's not forget that Miami Ohio's star RB Kenny Tracy is out for the season and they were really struggling to run the ball in the games before that one, including the Western Michigan game.
Now on the other side of the ball, there's definitely concern here for Western Michigan's offense. This is an offense that needs to run the ball. Their QB Broc Lowry leads the team with 875 rush yards... Miami Ohio's defensive front is tough.
I gotta say though... this Western Michigan offense has kinda made me a believer. They were really struggling early in the season but once we got into conference play, nobody seems to be able to get this physical run game off the field.
And it seems to be getting better as the year progresses.
Now running the ball on Miami Ohio is not a picnic. They've been lights out in their last two games... but they played terrible offenses. If you rewind to the previous 3 games where they saw some stronger offenses, this team was getting run on a little. And that was with LB Corban Hondru on he field. He was the team's leading tackler and he's not expected to play in this game.
I'm on Western Michigan at -2.5. Market disagrees.
SEC
GEORGIA VS ALABAMA - 4 PM
Well we all know the lore here. Kirby Smart is 1-7 against Alabama. Georgia's had problems with Alabama. The 1 win was the Natty tho with Stetson Bennett and George Pickens.
This will be Georgia's 6th trip to the SEC Championship game in the last 7 years. Alabama's 4th trip here in the same time span. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time we saw an SEC Championship game that didn't feature one of Alabama or Georgia.
As far as playoff implications, Georgia's gonna be good to go regardless. Alabama might be in trouble if they lose this football game.
Obviously a rematch from Week 5. Georgia just gave this game away.
As far as this year's matchup... Georgia's offense definitely seemed to figure it out down the stretch... but you can say the same thing for Alabama's defense. Injury news, UGA C Drew Bobo has been ruled out. He just got injured last week. But RB Chauncey Bowens looks to be coming back. Alabama just lost EDGE LT Overton also.
Last week's rivalry game was ugly... but in the weeks before that, we saw Georgia light the Texas defense up. Ole Miss... they went into Starkville and did whatever they wanted against the cowbells. This offense has looked really strong down the stretch.
You can say the same thing for Alabama's defense though.
If you rewind back to when Alabama saw some of the stronger offenses in the conference... they were really struggling against the run.
That includes a game against Georgia. They could not stop the run in that one. Georgia played this game without RT Earnest Greene too. He didn't return from injury till a few weeks later.
As far as Stockton... he's been playing really well. Alabama's secondary has been elite but in a dome, I don't think there's any defense in the country that can stop Georgia from scoring. Especially with Alabama missing one of their best pass rushers.
So do we think Georgia's defense can make stops on the other side of the ball? Alabama's got some injury concerns. LG Kam Dewberry is dealing with an injury and listed as questionable. RB Jam Miller is also listed as questionable. He got hurt in the Auburn game. Also TE Josh Cuevas is most likely not gonna play in this one either. Georgia's gonna be missing S Kyron Jones and DT Jordan Hall... neither of those are new. They've been out for a while. LB CJ Allen is back.
Just like Alabama's defense... this Georgia defense really started getting it together down the stretch. They lost to Alabama in Week 5... since then, this defense has been excellent.
This Alabama offense is obviously dangerous. But they've struggled to run the ball all year. I doubt we can rely on the run in this one. The offense really hasn't looked good away from Tuscaloosa either.
If you isolate Ty Simpson's numbers to just his road games... it really doesn't look great.
I'm on Georgia ML in this one.
ACC
DUKE @ VIRGINIA - 8 PM
ACC might miss out on the CFB Playoff if they don't get this one. Rematch of Week 12.
The problem with trying to play on Duke right now is the defense has completely fallen off. They were struggling in coverage all season but they at least were strong against the run early on. They can't seem to stop anybody from doing anything anymore.
They lost LBs Nick Morris Jr., Kendall Johnson and Elliott Schaper for the season.
Here's the thing... I don't think Virginia's offense is very good. Their LT McKale Boley left the VA Tech game after 15 snaps and might not play in this game. One of their main WRs Cam Ross also got injured in the VT game and might not play.
Now on the other side of the ball, this is where I do trust Virginia but they lost LB Kam Robinson for the season. He's 2nd on the team in tackles and he only played in 7 games.
We haven't seen the injury catch up to em yet. They've actually played great defense in the last two games since Kam Robinson went down... but I think it might catch up to em here.
Mensah hasn't played as well down the stretch.
Feel like the perspective of Duke is a little off. This team won 6 conference games for the first time since 2013 and is playing in the ACC Championship game. They've got a chance to win their first ACC Championship in 50 years... and it stills feels disappointing.
I'll say Duke +4.5 and under 57.5 but I really dk.
BIG TEN
INDIANA VS OHIO STATE - 8 PM
1st ever Big Ten Championship game that features the 1 and 2 ranked teams. Winner takes the Heisman?
Ohio State allows 7.8 PPG this year... but Indiana is 2nd allowing just 10.9 PPG.
Believe it or not, this is the first time we've seen Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game since 2020 (when they won 4 straight). Indiana's first time ever here.
Obviously, we know we're gonna see green everywhere in these graphics. These two teams are ranked 1 and 2 in the country.
Indiana hasn't seen a decent like Ohio State. If you take a look at the closest data points. They had road games at Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.
The closest data points we have for Ohio State's defense would be Texas, Washington and Michigan in the Big House. This competition is a bit lower... but the production is a lot more impressive.
Mendoza's been amazing this season... but the two pass rushes he's seen that are comparable to Ohio State's are Oregon and Penn State. He didn't play great in those two games.
We haven't seen a single QB have an efficient game throwing the ball against Ohio State this year and we remember what happened last year... Indiana was lighting everybody up... until they saw Ohio State. They couldn't do anything in that game. Now these aren't the same circumstances. That game was in Columbus... this year's Indiana team is better.
On the other side of the ball... what's gonna give here?
We just saw Ohio State go on the road in the Big House and make Michigan's defense look like Northern Illinois. Both Smith and Tate are back on the field. Does Hartline taking the South Florida job affect anything?
Sayin's been sakced 6 times this entire season.
We've also seen Ohio State's run game come around in addition to having the most efficient passing attack in College Football.
Now does that mean they can run the ball on Indiana? Not sure... Cignetti always has an elite run defense and nobody's really been able to run the ball on this team yet.
That game on the road in Eugene was impressive. Indiana's defense was elite out there.
But we have seen Indiana's defense look mortal in a couple games since then. Weirdly enough, Michigan State was moving the ball on Indiana. And then they almost lost the Penn State game.
