CFB Playoffs Thursday 1/1
- Kyle Kirms
- Jan 1
- 7 min read
OREGON VS TEXAS TECH - 12 PM
BRACKET. This is the round Oregon lost in last year. Kickoff is at 12 NOON... 9 AM for Oregon. They've been there for a week though and Oregon's been playing in the Big Ten for a couple years now.
Texas Tech has gone 5-0 in early kickoffs... Joey McGuire said "we're the best 11 AM team in the country".
Texas Tech hasn't played football in 4 weeks. Extended rest may have helped them though. Two of their most important players, QB Behren Morton and LB Jacob Rodriguez were both dealing with injuries... so a couple extra weeks could be good.
Also I like how Texas Tech paid their entire coaching staff. McGuire got an extension along with the OC, DC and STC.
What's gonna give on this side of the ball? LB Jacob Rodriguez is probable.
The main story with Oregon are the star receivers. They're saying Gary Bryant Jr. and Dakorien Moore are back... they didn't play much against James Madison but I'm thinking maybe that's because they had such a huge lead. Evan Stewart could return after this game if the Ducks advance.
The reason we really need the status of this receiving core... is cuz I very seriously doubt Oregon's gonna be running the ball in this game. Nobody runs the ball on Texas Tech. That defensive front 7 is absolutely nuts.
Did you see the Big 12 Championship game?
Did you see the Big 12 Championship game? BYU opened up the game with a 90 yard TD drive. Texas Tech scored 34 unanswered points.
Now I know you're thinking... "well Kyle Oregon has a stronger offense than BYU"... and that's true. Oregon's been running the ball.
James Madison has the best group of 5 run defense in the country.
The only two run defenses Oregon's seen that are close to Texas Tech's level are Indiana and Washington.
And if you're thinking Texas Tech isn't battle tested, trust me... that's not the case. Texas Tech has played two top 10 rated rushing attacks this year. In fact, Utah might be the best rushing attack in the country.
So in terms of Moore throwing the ball, first we should point out that Texas Tech hasn't been thrown on once all season... but they also haven't seen a passing attack that even comes close to Oregon.
Dante Moore did have a great game in Week 14. Washington's defense is strong too... they're a bit more strong against the run though. The secondary is beatable. But remember, Moore was missing all 3 of his top WRs in this game. Look at the pressured numbers.
Dante Moore is definitely gonna be under some more pressure than that in this one. Bailey and Height are both projected to be 1st round picks.
Pass rushes that are more comparable to Texas Tech... although to be fair to Dante Moore, that Iowa game was in the pouring rain.
As a whole on this side of the ball, this Texas Tech defense is just too strong for me to expect alotta offense out of Oregon.
On the other side of the ball though, I'm not sure if I trust Texas Tech to move the ball either. DC Tosh Lupoi is sticking with the team for the rest of the year before heading out to Cal.
Remember... the JMU game was 34-3 with 4:22 remaining in the 2nd quarter.
There's only been 2 games all season where we saw Oregon's defense have some problems. The most recent one was USC... Maiava was able to make some throws on Oregon but there was some serious circus plays in that one.
The other one is Indiana... I guess. But honestly, Oregon's defense was great in that game.
And as good as Texas Tech's offense has been, let's not pretend that we haven't seen great defenses give them problems.
The reason the total opened up so high in this one... Texas Tech's pace.
And also explosive plays.
I'm on under 53.5. As far as a side, it really feels like a coinflip game... I'm not sure how you have Oregon as a 2.5 point favorite here. I'd probably make it Oregon -1... so it's a TTU lean.
ALABAMA VS INDIANA - 4 PM
100th anniversary of the Rose Bowl.
These two programs have never met even though both have been around since the 1800s... but Coaches both have ties to the opposing program. Cignetti was on Nick Saban's Alabama staff from 2007-2010 and DeBoer was Indiana's OC in 2019. Alabama's DC was also Indiana's DC with DeBoer in 2019.
Gotta mention it again.
Well we know Alabama's gonna really struggle to run the ball in this game.
Alabama hasn't been able to do anything on the ground. Yes these are elite opponents but what do we consider Indiana to be? RB Jam Miller has not been 100%. He only had 7 carries in the 1st round against Oklahoma.
Nobody's run the ball on Indiana this year... and that includes their games against elite opponents. None of these games were at home btw.
So we know this Alabama offense is gonna live and die by Ty Simpson's arm in this game (as it has all season). Now here's the thing... as good as Indiana's defense has been. We have seen QBs make some throws on this secondary. Most recently, we saw Sayin throwing on em.
Grunkemeyer was making throws on em.
Aidan Chiles had an efficient day throwing the ball on this defense.
I think Ty Simpson can play well in this game. I know he laid an egg in the SEC Championship game and I know Indiana's pass rush is a problem... but EDGE Stephen Daley injured himself while celebrating the Ohio State win. This is already a pass rush that lost EDGE Kellan Wyatt for the season back in Week 8. 2 of their top 3 edge rushers are now out.
We just saw Ty Simpson go on the road in Norman against one of the best defenses in the country in serious wind and have an efficient day throwing it. Remember... Alabama was down 17-0 on the road in one of the toughest environments for a QB to play in in College Football.
Getting TE Josh Cuevas back was huge. He had been out since Week 12.
D'Angelo Ponds is an elite CB... but other than that, Ryan Williams, Bernard, Horton... Alabama's weapons are going to win those battles on the outside.
Now what about the other side of the ball? Can Alabama stop Indiana's offense? Indiana getting WR Omar Cooper Jr. back from injury. He missed the Big Ten Championship game. Also WR EJ Williams Jr. is back. He came back for the Ohio State game. Indiana's got all their WRs on the field together for the first time since early November.
We know the story with Alabama's defense. They started the season off slowly. Florida State lit em up on the ground. They were really struggling against the run early in the season. But the 2nd half of the year, this defense looked elite.
And it's been lights out in the postseason so far... and they played both these games without LT Overton, one of their best defensive players. He's back for this one. He hasn't played since the Auburn game.
And we know Indiana likes to light bad teams up. They might be guilty of padding stats a bit against the lesser opponents.
Mendoza was under alotta pressure in those games and he didn't do the best job handling it.
The run game wasn't really there for Indiana in those games.
Overreaction? Georgia vs Indiana a pick on December 6th?
Alabama +7.
OLE MISS VS GEORGIA - 8 PM
Bracket.
Gotta bring the grahic up again. Georgia hasn't played since December 6th.
We should probably start by taking a look at the first matchup. Wasn't a whole lot of defense being played in this one. Georgia never punted once. Georgia's TE had 3 TDs in the game.
But both these teams have come a long way defensively since then. RB K. Lacy has been participating in full practice so he's good to go. He got banged up in the Tulane game. Also their TE Wright is listed as probable.
This Georgia defense seems to get better and better as the season progresses.
After that Ole Miss game, Georgia played 3 more SEC games and the defense really tightened up.
I know we saw Ole Miss lighting the scoreboard up back in Week 8... Georgia's defense is playing at a much higher level right now than they were at that point. I very seriously doubt Ole Miss scores 35+ points again. And they're doing this without DT Jordan Hall and DB Kyron Jones. Both have been out for over a month.
Now the Ole Miss offense has been great... but they haven't seen a respectable defense since Florida. Ole Miss finished the season leading the SEC in total offense with 498 YPG.
Chambliss has been excellent.
If you rewind to when Ole Miss actually saw some tough defenses, Chambliss' numbers don't look nearly as good.
You know he's probably not gonna have much run support from Lacy in this one.
As far as the offense without Lane Kiffin... seemed fine in the 1st round. It's tough to evaluate in a game where there's that much of a talent gap though.
But Georgia's not the only team playing much better defense down the stretch.
Ole Miss defense has been playing well. S Jaylon Braxton is back and fully healthy. He only played a few snaps in the Georgia game and he's been back fully in the lineup since Week 9. Also CB Antonio Kite is also back. He missed a couple games at the end of the season.
We do need to point out the recent schedule though. Who's the best offense they've seen since the Georgia game? Oklahoma? Miss State?
But I still don't think it's crazy that Ole Miss holds up defensively in this one... cuz what's going on with the Georgia offense? Good news. WR Colbie Young is set to return. He hasn't played since Week 8. Coincidentally... those are the games they played without C Drew Bobo and he's still out. Good news though... WR Colbie Young is set to return. He hasn't played since Week 8.
