NFL Week 9 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- 20 hours ago
- 11 min read
BEARS @ BENGALS - 1 PM
So we've got serious injuries on both sides here.
Is Cincinnati capable of making stops against anybody?
This Bengals defensive front just can't seem to stop anybody on the ground.
And if you're thinking "oh well Kyle the Bears can't run the ball"... well hold on... we've seen Chicago play 3 games in a row against questionable run defenses and they ran the ball successfully in all 3.
We also have to keep in mind that this is Ben Johnson's offense. He gave us arguably the most dominant run game in the NFL year after year in Detroit. You know he wants to run the ball... in addition to playing some shaky run defenses, isn't it possible that the Bears offense just needed a few weeks to get some chemistry? I wouldn't be surprised if the Bears are running the ball better in the 2nd half of the season.
Also... with Trey Hendrickson out, you'd have to imagine Caleb Williams will have plenty of space to work with in the pocket.
I don't trust Caleb Williams much, especially on the road... but we saw Justin Fields put together a very efficient day throwing the football last week.
The Bears offensive line is playing pretty well... we saw the Jets offensive line dominate this Bengals defensive front. The Bears offensive line should definitely win these battles. Bears have struggled in the redzone... well the Bengals have one of the worst redzone defenses in the NFL.
On the other side of the ball, this is where it gets a big iffy.
This is a concern for the Bears.
I can't stand this Bears defense... they really struggled to get off the field against Tyler Huntley.
Is Flacco healthy? Does CJ Gardner-Johnson make an impact? It's gotta be Bears for me... but laying 2.5 points on the road is tough. That's 4.5 on a neutral.
49ERS @ GIANTS - 1 PM
Well we know the 49ers are gonna move the ball in this one because the Giants defense can't seem to stop anybody. This is the worst run defense in the NFL.
Look at their numbers against the run from last week's game against Philadelphia.
Giants defense also got hit with a new injury. There's also injuries to the depth in addition to these.
The 49ers aren't putting huge numbers up on the scoreboard, but the offense has been moving the ball. They've gotten the run game going a bit, which was struggling earlier in the year.
This offense has all kinds of problems, but I don't think we can trust the Giants defense to make consistent stops.
Mac Jones really hasn't played well at all... but he played some defenses that are much tougher than the Giants.
He's been more effective from a clean pocket... Giants pass rush hasn't been as good as we thought this year. It's been pretty middle of the pack.
On the other side of the ball, I think both of these units are slightly better than these year-long numbers show.
Jaxson Dart has played well... last week wasn't his best showing but he still made a few throws.
I still think the 49ers defense can be effective without Warner and Bosa... but these injuries are just really racking up. This team is missing 4 edge rushers.
This team just can't pressure the quarterback right now.
The Giants have their share of injuries also... but even missing the RT, I don't think we can count on the 49ers generating consistent pressure in this game.
The Giants run game probably isn't the same without Scattebo though and San Francisco, even with the injuries, has done a solid job against the run.
I know this 49ers team is a mess... but between McCaffrey and the Giants defense injured secondary, I don't trust them to make stops. Jaxson Dart is gonna make throws but when it comes down to it, I trust Shanahan to figure out a way to win this game over Daboll. 49ers -2.5.
BRONCOS @ TEXANS - 1 PM
The Denver Broncos have now won 5 consecutive games. It's actually crazy to think... the way they lost the Colts and Chargers games, the Broncos could very easily be 8-0 right now.
The question is... can they move the ball on the road against Houston's defense?
This offense has looked good in back to back games but we can't just erase the beginning of the season where they were looking pretty mediocre. LG Ben Powers will miss his 4th straight game.
Houston's defense has been excellent. I know these numbers don't blow you away but you have to keep in mind, the offense kept giving Seattle the football in great field position. Houston's defense was the only reason that wasn't a blowout loss.
This is a tough matchup for Bo Nix. He's got nice numbers against the blitz... but Houston doesn't blitz much. They're able to generate pressure with just their front 4.
Over 69% of Houston's defensive snaps are in Cover 3, 4 and 6. Bo Nix doesn't have great numbers against zone.
Denver has been running the ball pretty consistently so maybe they're able to give Bo Nix some run support... but Houston's defense is a step above most of what Denver's seen. I expect Denver to punt a lot in this game.
On the other side of the ball, how big of a loss is Patrick Surtain? He's going to miss at least 2 or 3 games.
Remember, Houston's got their WRs back for this one.
CJ Stroud has excellent numbers against man coverage and 1H safety looks which is what Denver does a lot of.
And as I'm sure you've heard, Denver is missing not only their best corner, but one of the best corners in the NFL.
Here's the thing... Vance Joseph's blitz packages and the Broncos pass rush against CJ Stroud sounds like something out of a nightmare. Denver has 36 sacks this season... the next highest is 26.
Houston's offense is terrible in the redzone and Denver's the best redzone defense in the NFL. I doubt they're gonna provide Stroud any run support against that Denver defense.
I think Houston is the play here... I don't hate an under.
COLTS @ STEELERS - 1 PM
The Colts offense is a wagon. WEATHER IS SUPPOSED TO BE FINE.
And I really dk what to say about this Steelers defense anymore. I thought it was coming back around for a second... but they've gotten completely cooked in their last two games. It felt like Pittsburgh didn't make a single tackle in the 2nd half of the Packer game. They've allowed almost 1,000 yards of offense in their last two games!
The secondary can't seem to cover anybody... they're regularly outcoached. Sure, they can pressure the passer and that will win them some games. But Daniel Jones has been one of the best QBs in the NFL under pressure so far this year and he also gets the ball out quickly.
Now Pittsburgh has done a solid job against the run... so maybe there's a path here. The Colts have played a lot of bad defenses so far this year. But the way Jonathan Taylor's running the ball, the Steelers are gonna have to commit to stopping it... which will make covering the Colts WRs even more difficult.
Steelers are also managing injuries on this side of the ball.
And the Colts offense is completely healthy.
On the other side of the ball, I would imagine the Steelers can move the ball right back. The strength of this Colts team is definitely not the defense.
The Colts defense has played a lot of games against really bad offenses.
Pittsburgh may have lost two games in a row, but it's certainly not the offense's fault.
Colts defense is a bit healthier than they have been... but I still don't fully trust this unit.
I took the over in this game but I got 47.5... it's at 50.5/51 now. I'd still lean over.
FALCONS @ PATRIOTS - 1 PM
On a list of "teams that badly need a win", Atlanta might be right at the top.
We've got injury concerns here on Atlanta's defense.
The Falcons defense might be built to give New England some problems. Teams can run on Atlanta... but nobody's really been able to throw then ball much on this team.
We saw Visor Tua have a nice game against this Falcons defense.
But up until that point... nobody really has had success throwing the ball on Atlanta all year.
Now that doesn't mean Drake Maye can't make throws. This guy's looked like one of the best QBs in the NFL.
We know Atlanta's gonna be sending blitzes non-stop... Drake Maye's been elite against the blitz.
But the Patriots haven't been able to run the ball all year.
And on the other side of the ball, I don't believe this Patriots secondary can cover anybody.
Falcons offense is in way better shape.
It looks like things are getting better... but it could be due to the fact that they played the two worst starting QBs in the NFL.
I'm not gonna let two games against the two worst offenses in the NFL erase the first 6 games where this defense was getting regularly cooked.
New England's pass rush really hasn't made much noise this year. Michael Penix should have some clean pockets to work with. Patriots vs receiving RBs.
I'm on OVER 44.5 and Falcons +5.5.
PANTHERS @ PACKERS - 1 PM
So it looks like Carolina has a chance of getting Bryce Young back. Last time the Panthers got blown out, they responded with 3 straight wins. But if Green Bay gets out to a lead and puts Carolina in a situation where they had to drop back to pass... I'm not sure how the offensive line holds up.
Panthers offensive line is so banged up... I don't know how they're able to give Bryce Young anytime to throw in this one.
Packers played with their food a bit in the CIncinnati and Arizona games. I would imagine they'll make it a point to put an exclamation point on this one if they can.
Panthers only road win is against the Jets (a game they coulda lost). They got beat comfortably by Jacksonville, Arizona and New England all on the road.
Carolina's defensive front can put up a fight against Jacobs, who's still injured.
CHARGERS @ TITANS - 1 PM
Chargers offensive line gets Joe Alt back but loses Mekhi Becton. Is the offense back?
It's not Justin Herbert's been playing poorly.. he's been fine. The issue with this team's been the offensive line, lack of run game and the defense. I don't see how the Titans defense gets off the field. Chargers are 1st in the NFL in 3rd down %.
Titans defense is still crushed with injuries.
Chargers put a ton of pressure on Carson Wentz last week. Pass rush might be back with Khalil Mack healthy.
Cam Ward under pressure this year... a mess.
I do think there's a path to Tennessee running the ball a bit in this game. LAC was excellent against the run last week... and they do have Perryman and Mack back... but we don't want to just forget that we saw the Chargers got run all over for more than a month.
I know the Titans rushing numbers don't look great... but they've played 4 of their last 5 games on the road... they've seen some tough defenses... and they've been put in position where they had to abandon the run quickly.
Mike McCoy is a former Chargers HC.
VIKINGS @ LIONS - 1 PM
Vikings have lost 4 straight games at Ford Field... the last 3 were by double digits. Lions run a faster pace at home. Vikings defense is unrecognizable. They're struggling against the run. They've gotten completely cooked through the air the last few games. Dillon Gabriel's best career game so far this year was his first start against Minnesota.
I do say... I think there's a path to Minnesota scoring points back though. The Lions like to run man coverage... and the Vikings WRs are better than the Lions DBs are. JJ McCarthy only has 22 career dropbacks against man coverage... 13/18 180 yards. 2 TD 3 INT... so when JJ McCarthy has seen man coverage, we've seen huge plays both for and against the Vikings.
OVER 47.5 or Lions -8.5
JAGUARS @ RAIDERS - 4 PM
Jacksonville missing Travis Hunter, who actually leads the team in receptions this year. They're also missing WR Tim Patrick. He hasn't been a huge factor but they're definitely thin at WR. This makes the matchup interesting... because the Raiders have a great run defense. Where this Raiders defense is terrible is defending the pass. Jacksonville already doesn't have much of a passing attack... add on they're thin at WR.
The Raiders have defended the run well all season. The defense is completely healthy, coming off a bye week.
Coen came out and said that they need to get back to being a balanced run-first offense after the bye week like we were earlier in the season. Well, I'm not sure how much success they're gonna have with that. Etienne only had 9 touches.
Trevor Lawrence has struggled with zone coverage this year... nobody runs more zone coverage than the Raiders.
The question is... on the other side of the ball, can we trust the Raiders to score? Brock Bowers is back, which is huge. Jakobi Meyers is back... which is huge. But Kolton Miller is still out. That offensive line is already terrible and Kolton Miller is the most important piece of it. Jags are missing a safety - Eric Murray. Also it looks like Devin Lloyd may miss another game.
Jacksonville hasn't had much of a pass rush this year... which is key if we're counting on the Raiders to move the ball. Geno Smith under pressure is terrible.
Jags defense has been strong against the run this year... I can't trust the Raiders offensive line to generate any push at all. Maybe Jeanty can break off a big play or two but I can't count on this team to run the ball at all. I think we're gonna see the Raiders try to run the ball in this game. They inexplicably didn't run the ball much early in the game against Kansas City. Pete Carroll said that they "intended to establish the run"... and in the 2nd half, they were down 20+ points so it makes sense. But at halftime, Jeanty had 4 carries for 19 yards. (only 14 offensive plays). He only had 6 carries in the entire game.
I wanna bet the Raiders... I just can't do it. UNDER 44.
SAINTS @ RAMS - 4 PM
Nacua and Havenstein are both back for the Rams.
The Saints offense looked so terrible without McCoy last week. They looked slightly better at the end I guess... but Tampa mighta been sitting back in coverage by that point in the game. The crazy part is... the defense actually played well.
The Rams have actually gotten run on in their last two games before the bye week but they controlled both those games start to finish.
Rams pass rush coming off a bye is a really tough first start for Tyler Shough. The Rams also added depth in the secondary with Roger McCreary.
Other than the Mac Jones games on Thursday night and the 2nd half of the Eagles game, this Rams defense has been one of the most reliable units in the NFL. They're the only defense to play a good defensive game against the Colts so far this year.
On the other side, the Saints defense has looked better but the way the Rams are playing offensively, it's unrealistic to think they can go to SoFi and stop this unit especially now that they're healthier.
Rams will probably be able to run the ball... you know Stafford's gonna have clean pockets to throw from. Stafford had a bye week and still leads the NFL in TD passes (tied with Mahomes).
Sleepy spot for the Rams?
Rams I guess?
SEAHAWKS @ COMMANDERS - 8 PM
Washington needs to put a stop to this freefall... and it's really tough to make a case for their defense right now with the injuries.
This defense has struggled to make stops for 3 straight weeks.
The good news is... Sam Darnold's hot streak came to an end. He's coming off his worst game as a Seahawk. Seattle's pretty thin at WR. Washington runs man coverage. Outside of Smith-Njigba... which receiving weapons worry you here? Cooper Kupp might not play in this game. Outside of JSN, Tory Horton has 9 catches.. there isn't another active WR that has a catch this year.
With the injuries... short week... Seattle off the bye week. It's really tough to picture Washington playing a great defensive game here. I do think getting Jayden Daniels back... being back home in a desperate spot. I think Dan Quinn can scheme something up. On the other side of the ball, Jayden Daniels is back and that's huge for this matchup... because Jayden Daniels is really good at handling pressure.
It's really difficult to unsee Week 7 though. He's not gonna have run support in this game. Laremy Tunsil is questionable as well.
