NFL Conference Championship Sunday

PATRIOTS @ BRONCOS - 3:00 PM

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Can we get some new faces?

Despite the playoff dominance over the last two decades... the Broncos have actually been a thorn in the Patriots side.

Tom Brady is just 1-3 in playoff games against Denver.

Brady is 6-8 lifetime against Denver (the only team he has a losing record against).

Tom Brady was just 2-6 lifetime in Denver.

New England's only playoff win against Denver in the history of the franchise is Brady's beatdown of Tim Tebow. This was also the only one of the 5 matchups that was in New England. The 4 losses were in Denver. The Patriots have never won a playoff game in Denver.

They have won 3 in a row though (none were playoff games). The most recent trip... Bailey Zappe beat Russell Wilson in 2023.

Both of these teams have been really good in the AFC Championship game. These two teams met in this exact game in 2014 and 2016... Peyton Manning beat Tom Brady in both of em.

Home teams have fared well in this game.

So have favorites. There's only been 8 instances ever where the away team was favored. They're 4-4 in those.

If this number closes at 4.5... this will be the biggest road favorite in AFC Championship history.

This year's Patriots team has not had problems on the road though.

New England's offense in Denver.

Both units are healthy.

Despite what the final scores of the game say... New England's offense didn't look good against Houston. They were moving the ball in the Chargers game.

The weather in those games was cold and nasty... moreso in the Houston game. We're looking at the same thing here but it should be snow which certainly helps the offense.

The criticism of the Patriots offense is the lack of quality defenses on the schedule.

But we can't pretend like Denver's defense is just inpenetrable. In fact... Buffalo wasn't having problems moving the ball on em at all.

They didn't make a single stop? The FG drives were: 41 yards 68 yards 69 yards.

New England's run game is inconsistent. I think Denver can limit them on the ground. The Bills were able to run the ball successfully but the Patriots run game is not the Bills.

But when it comes to Drake Maye... the truth is, on paper, this isn't a bad matchup for him. Vance Joseph loves to blitz... they blitzed Josh Allen on over 41% of his dropbacks last week. Drake Maye is the best QB in the NFL against the blitz this year. (Stafford's passer rating is 118).

Drake Maye hasn't played that well in the playoffs so far this year... that was against the Chargers and the Texans. Those defenses don't blitzs much. They generate pressure with their front 4. JUst 19.44%.

Another thing Denver likes to do is run man coverage. 34.8% of their defensive snaps against the Bills were in man coverage... most of any team in the playoffs.

How is this game gonna be officiated? Denver's defense led the NFL in penalties. They were 2nd in the NFL in roughing the passers and 1st in pass interference.

There's definitely some bad defenses in here.

What about just good defenses that run man?

The criticism of Drake Maye here would be his lack of experience in tough road environments this year. This place is gonna be a zoo. Also I'm pretty sure Drake Maye has fumbled 6 times.

Now we get to the other side of the ball and this is where it gets challenging.

So first the good news... Luke Wattenberg might return for this one and that's big. Dobbins returned to practice but he will not be playing.

Patriots missing Harold Landry. He hasn't played a ton in these playoffs. Just 26 snaps against LAC and just 11 snaps against Houston.

Carlton Davis cleared concussion protocol.

This New England defense is the most surprising part of the playoffs.

Their numbers against the run are wild. Now... Denver has a better offensive line than the Chargers or Texans.

Denver wasn't able to run the ball last week which is concerning cuz Buffalo's run defense is bad... but not having your center is a factor and also you have to consider that McDermott might have schemed his entire gameplan up to take the run away.

But with Jarrett Stidham at QB, who's to say Vrabel isn't gonna do the same thing?

Denver's run game has been ok at times but not great.

And that's where I'm worried for Denver here. If you rewatch that Buffalo game, Bo Nix was making some plays.

Stidham's a veteran. He's not a bad player at all. Sean Payton has spoken highly of him. He said Stidham could be a starter on other NFL teams.

NE.

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RAMS @ SEAHAWKS - 6:30 PM

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Home teams have done well.

ATS it's closer though.

Favorites.

Short favorites have done well.

Overs.

Even rivalry.

These teams have met twice in the playoffs... and the Rams won both in Seattle. Most recent was Jared Goff beating Russell Wilson.

Sean McVay has never lost an NFC Championship game... Macdonald has never lost a playoff game period (last week was his first).

We've seen unders recently.

We saw two of the best football games of the year.

Elite matchup.

Rams offense in same shape. Havenstein did return to practice but has been ruled out.

Seattle fully healthy.

What we saw in the 2 games against Seattle is wild. The first game was at home in the dome. The Rams offensive line was completely healthy and the Seahawks were missing Julian Love and Jarran Reed. Rams couldn't do anything. Then later in the season, they go on the road to Seattle missing their RT, their RG gets injured in the 1st quarter. There's no Davante Adams. Seattle's defense was fully healthy... and they go nuclear.

The 3 games since that Rams game have been a level of defensive dominance I'm not sure we've seen from any team this entire season.

The weather's supposed to be ok which is huge for the Rams. We know Matt Stafford has had problems in cold weather games.

It's tough to have a ton of confidence in Stafford going into this one after the first 2 playoff games. Both were on the road, outdoors... and more importantly, the Panthers and Bears defenses are not anything close to Seattle's defense.

Stafford's elite and reading blitz packages but Seattle doesn't blitz much.

You also don't want to doubt Stafford though... cuz he's owned this team since joining the Rams.

The Rams do have a very efficient rushing attack. They were running the ball well in the first 2 playoff games. But those are two bad run defenses.

They were able to run the ball a bit on the Seahawks in the first 2 games... so I don't think it's crazy to say the Rams can give Stafford a bit of run support.

On the other side, we've got a more interesting matchup.

Seattle is missing Charbonnet.

Byron Young is listed as questionable but it looks like he's gonna play.

The Rams defense definitely earned our respect last week. They went on the road to cold ass Chicago and really held the Bears run game in check.

S Quentin Lake returned.

They kept Cardiac Caleb from finishing the job.

Seattle has established that they are a run-first program.

That includes 2 games against the Rams defense. LT Charles Cross didn't even play in the 2nd one. The 49ers run defense isn't good... before that they played Carolina. So it's been a full month since they've seen a good run defense (which was the Rams).

The X factor here is Sam Darnold. Now we just saw Seattle play their 2 biggest games of the year... they didn't ask Sam Darnold to do a ton. But he played well.

But those games were against the 49ers defense. Do we just erase the last 2 months before this where Sam Darnold really wasn't playing that well? We just saw the Rams force Caleb Williams into 3 INT.

Sam Darnold has thrown 6 INTs to the Rams this year.

The Rams also eliminated Sam Darnold from the playoffs last year and Darnold turned the ball over twice.

Seahawks