NFL Division Saturday

Kyle Kirms
Jan 17
5 min read

BILLS @ BRONCOS - 4:30 PM

Both these franchises were formed in 1959. So 66 years... only 2 playoff meetings ever.

Last year was a beatdown. Denver drove right down the field 70 yards to score a TD and go up 7-0. Buffalo responded with 31 unanswered.

Division round history.

Favorites have had success.

Streak snapped.

Broncos don't lost home playoff games very often. First home playoff game in 10 years. This place is gonna be a crime scene.

Tom Brady's first playoff loss was in this building. Brady was 10-0 in playoff games until he went to Mile High.

It doesn't get much better than Josh Allen and the Bills offense on the road in Mile High against the Broncos defense.

Both units in great shape. Bills WR4 has concerns. Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer and Gabe Davis all on IR. Curtis Samuel has a chance of returning. He hasn't played since mid November.

Same with Denver.

The Bills offensive numbers from last week look great.

But the run wasn't really there. Jacksonville has an elite run defense... but so does Denver.

Despite that... I still don't think it's realistic to expect Denver to shut Buffalo's run game down like Jacksonville did. In the 4 road games before last week, Buffalo had been running the ball on tough defenses.

Denver's only played 2 games all year against top 10 rated rushing attacks... but this doesn't really tell us anything. They were absolutely destroying the Cowboys and the Colts game was back in Week 2.

The takeaway here is Denver has not seen many elite rushing attacks this season.

The Bills had zero problems running the ball on Denver's defense last year... and it's a very similar defense. Now this was in Buffalo... now we're in Denver.

Now as far as Josh Allen goes, first let's give him some credit... he played great last week against a very good Jags defense.

Now he has to deal with the Broncos pass rush in Denver. They lead the NFL with 68 sacks. The team in 2nd place is 57.

But if you isolate Josh Allen's numbers to just his 4 games against top 10 pass rushes... it doesn't look great. Now to be fair... Buffalo was missing both OTs in the Pittsburgh game. But still... this is concerning. Coincidentally... all 4 of these games were on the road also.

And QBs have not had a ton of success throwing the ball on Denver's defense in this building.

If you isolate it to just the good QBs that have come to this building... not quite as impressive... but not bad either.

Weather's supposed to be nice. So there's a path to Josh Allen having some success here.

Some good news for Denver... Josh Allen has not had success throwing the ball on man coverage this year and Vance Joseph loves running man coverage.

I gotta ask... do you trust the Bills WRs to win their matchups? Cuz the blitzes are coming.

What about the other side?

It's also the more injured side of the ball for both teams. I'm not sure if we'll see Wattenberg will be back this season.

Buffalo's defense is dealing with injuries. Ed Oliver hasn't played since October.

S Jordan Poyer out. CB Maxwell Hairston out. CB Dorian Strong is out. S Damar Hamlin is out.

I'm not sure if Ed Oliver returning solves the Bills problem immediately. This defense struggled against the run all season. Liam Coen's facing heavy criticism for abandoning the run last week.

The Broncos are missing a center... and the run game hasn't been excellent. But they've seen some tough defenses and were still able to move the chains on the ground.

Bo Nix doesn't have the most impressive looking numbers in his last few games but he definitely passes the eye test if you watched. Look at the defenses.

Can we trust him to have an efficient game against Buffalo though? That's a tough question... QBs struggle to throw the ball on this defense. They really gave Trevor Lawrence a hard time. Credit to him though... outside of the 2 INTs, I thought he played pretty well.

But if you take a look at the last few months... how many QBs have we seen have efficient games throwing the ball on Buffalo?

But I really don't wanna sleep on Denver's offense either. Sean Payton has shown us he's down to play rope-a-dope with the playbook.

Remember those were also the games they were missing their C.

Broncos +1.5 and I'd lean under at 46.5.

49ERS @ SEAHAWKS - 8:00 PM

Favorites in division round.

But it hasn't been smart to lay a touchdown in this round.

Last season.

History.

49ers have had more success in this round.

They've also played in 19 NFC Championship games... which is more than any other team.

The 12th man. First home playoff game in a decade.

We all know the most recent data point. 173 total yards.

Brock Purdy was in prison.

But now Trent Williams is playing.

And if you're thinking 1 offensive lineman doesn't make a difference...

Now does that mean they can move the ball against Seattle's defense?

Seattle has the slight edge on the full season.

Night and day difference. It's starting to look like that Week 18 game was the outlier.

QBs have actually haven't been that bad on the road in Seattle.

This is actually interesting.

Brock Purdy's stat line in Week 1 looks very similar to his stat line last week in Philadelphia. Outside of the 2 INTs, he played well.

Weather's supposed to be fine. I think we'll see a much better offensive game from the 49ers in this one than we saw in Week 18.

When Brock Purdy has a clean pocket, I think he'll make throws.

What about the other side of the ball?

Seattle scored 13 points exactly both times they played the 49ers defense this year. The difference is... one time, they deserved to only score 13 points... the other time, they probably shoulda scored 27 points.

The difference is the health of the 49ers defense.

It was the best defensive game they played all season.

Does that mean they can stop Seattle on the ground?

Charles Cross is back. Darnold questionable? Injured oblique in practice.

"It's a very low percentage, probably closer to zero."

And you would think Sam Darnold should have plenty of room to work with.

He played pretty well against the 49ers in Week 18. He wasn't asked to do a ton.

Does that just erase the previous 2 months? Remember... Sam Darnold was lighting it up in September and October. That came crashing down to earth. Seattle was winning games with their defense and run game.