NFL Week 8 Sunday

Kyle Kirms
4 days ago
12 min read

JETS @ BENGALS - 1 PM EST

Cincinnati gets it done on Thursday night.

So it looks like Flacco immediately makes this offense better than the Jake Browning version. I gotta say though... the concerns with the Bengals defense are definitely still there. Let's not pretend like it was an excellent defensive performance.

This is still one of the worst defenses in the NFL.

The Bengals completely shut down the Browns run game in Week 1... since then, they've gotten basically steamrolled on the ground in every single game.

Now the Jets offense is really struggling, don't get me wrong. It's been 21 days since the Jets scored a TD.

But all the Jets do is run the ball.

So why can't the Jets run the ball on this terrible Bengals defensive front? Well there are a couple concerns. The first one being that the Jets run game may have looked really strong in the first few games... but it's fallen off in the last two. They played two of the strongest run defenses in the NFL. The Panthers are 1st in the NFL in success rate/rush.

In addition to that, Breece Hall is dealing with a knee injury. He only had 11 carries last week in the Carolina.

But if Breece Hall plays... the Jets offensive line hasn't been that bad generating push. We don't see many games where the Jets offensive line is going to win the battles up front... this is definitely one of them.

The Bengals defense is terrible. I don't see any reason why the Jets can't run the ball in this game. And on top of that, whoever's playing QB is most likely going to have plenty of room to work. The Bengals pass rush is not good. Justin Fields was benched at halftime last week so I'm not sure if we'll see him or Tyrod Taylor. (fans cheered)

Pass protection is a concern.

We don't know if Trey Hendrickson is returning... he missed the Pittsburgh game with a hip injury.

I think the Jets can move the ball because the Bengals defense is that bad... now on the other side of the ball, I guess what we need to figure out is how good we think this Bengals offense is with Flacco.

There's no question the offense has looked significantly better the last two games.

And remember.. the Bengals offense might be a bit undervalued due to the fact that they've been through a gauntlet of a schedule.

And this is a Jets defense that's struggled against the short pass all year. We know Joe Flacco's gonna be hitting Jamar Chase on those 4 yard passes all game just like he did against Pittsburgh.

Cincinnati also might give Joe Flacco some run support. Not sure where this came from.

Both of these teams have run faster paces this year.

I'm going with OVER 43.5. (Weather is supposed to be fine)

49ERS @ TEXANS - 1 PM EST

Two teams coming off basically opposite performances. San Francisco played a Falcons team that looks pretty dangerous. They completely handled that game start to finish. Won the LOS battle on both sides of the ball. Houston was coming off a bye week... they had back to back blowout wins before that and it was a perfect opportunity to beat a good Seattle team and move to 3-3. That statement win woulda put the Texans in possible playoff conversations. They laid a major egg.

Last week's loss was not on the defense though. The defense was the only reason that wasn't a blowout. This is an interesting matchup here. DeMeco Ryans against his old team.

DeMeco Ryans has the tools on defense to completely prioritize taking McCaffrey out of the game without too much exposure elsewhere. This team is able to generate plenty of pressure without sending extra rushers and we know Mac Jones struggles with pressure.

Remember, the 49ers are dealing with key injuries on both sides of the ball... and Houston should be able to get a little aggressive keeping McCaffrey out of space.

It's not like Mac Jones was dangerous last week. He had 152 pass yards in the game and 72 of them went to McCaffrey.

Maybe San Francisco can run the ball a little in this game but I'm not sure how much. Yeah, they were running the ball on Atlanta last week... but this team's been struggling to get the run game going all season.

Houston's got elite numbers against the short pass. They can generate pressure with their front 4. San Francisco's injured at WR. The table's set... Mac Jones is gonna have to throw the ball downfield in this one... do you trust him to make the throws or not?

On the other side of the ball, San Francisco has the huge advantage. The 49ers are missing their two best defensive players and they still are playing pretty well. Houston's offense looks broken.

Outside of those back to back tough road games, this San Francisco defense has been really good. They lock up in the redzone. They're well coached.

The Falcons offense has looked pretty strong this season. They've been running the ball... Penix looks alright. The 49ers defense held em to 10 points.

Now San Francisco has not been generating a ton of pressure this year... and CJ Stroud is most dangerous when he has clean pockets to work with.

And remember, Stroud is always more reliable at home in Houston. That's been the case his entire career, not just this season.

Obviously, the WRs are smoked.

But it's not like the 49ers secondary is loaded with talent. This 49ers defense is well-coached... it's not a group of pro-bowlers.

I think the move is under here at 42.5... I know Shanahan runs a faster pace but I really expect Houston's defense to play well and I think the Texans control the tempo in this game.

UNDER 42.5

BROWNS @ PATRIOTS - 1 PM EST

Dillon Gabriel gets his first win... and it was a dominant one. We do have to mention that it was probably the most favorable situation Cleveland has ever been in.

Let's not pretend the Browns offense looked good in that game. Judkins broke a couple of runs but for the most part, they were not moving the ball.

I have zero faith in the Browns offense... but I don't think this Patriots defense is very good. They've won 4 games in a row... it's certainly not a result of the pass defense.

We just saw Cam Ward have his most efficient game as an NFL QB against this Patriots defense... and this was New England's best defensive performance of the season. They switched to heavy zone coverage in the 2nd half which seemed to help.

If this was just one bad game, whatever... but New England's been getting consistently thrown on all year.

The problem is... so we trust Dillon Gabriel to exploit it? So far, what we've seen from the Browns offense with Gabriel at QB is quick releases. The ball is out of Gabriel's hands fast. That's not exactly what New England's struggled with so far this year. The Patriots problem has been they can't seem to cover anybody for longer than 2-3 seconds. Is Stefasnki gonna let Dillon Gabriel dropback and stand in the pocket waiting for routes to develop?

Jack Conklin's healthy... Jerry Jeudy is healthy and hasn't really had a breakout game yet. Based on what we've seen from New England's secondary so far this year, this might be the perfect game for him.

Now the Patriots have been strong in the box. They've been elite against the run. The way to exploit this New England defense so far has been the sidelines and downfield... and that's just not where Cleveland's offense operates. New England is the only team in the NFL that has not allowed a 50 yard rusher.

On the other side of the ball, we have the strengths for both teams. Obviously, Cleveland's defense is going to be a challenge for Drake Maye.

I gotta say... I really think Drake Maye can still throw on this defense. Obviously, the Cleveland pass rush is a concern. But Drake Maye's been an extremely efficient passer against adversity. He's actually one of the best QBs in the NFL this year both against the blitz and under pressure.

And on top of that... this New England offensive line has done a great job in pass protection so far this year. Drake Maye has taken a lot of sacks but it's mostly from holding onto the football too long.

Drake Maye won't have run support but he's playing with so much confidence right now that it still doesn't shake my trust in him. Cleveland's gonna show a lot of man coverage and Maye's got great numbers in that department.

I think the Patriots can score in this one... so I lean New England -7. I also don't hate an over here. Cleveland's been running a really fast pace so far this year.

Patriots -7 and over 40.5.

DOLPHINS @ FALCONS - 1 PM EST

Good news for Atlanta... this is a perfect matchup for the offense to bounce back after being held to 10 points last week.

Now obviously... it's looking like we might see Kirk Cousins at QB and this is concerning. It's also looking like Drake London might not play. I understand that.

But remember.. the Falcons are a run-first offense. They're 4th in the NFL in run frequency... and the Dolphins defense can't stop anybody.

The Falcons offensive line is completely healthy, they've done a great job generating push in the run game this year, Miami's defense is dead last in explosive run play %. This is actually a perfect matchup for Bijon Robinson to go ballistic. The offensive line is coming off their worst performance of the season.

I will say the Dolphins defense is a bit healthier. They've had a couple guys banged up throughout the year. Storm Duck is back. The entire front 7 is healthy.

But they've been so bad... they're going on the road against Atlanta... an offense coming off a bad primetime loss. I just don't know how we count on the Dolphins to make stops in this one, even if it's Kirk Cousins and no Drake London.

And when it comes to Cousins, is it really THAT much of a dropoff? It's not like Penix has been amazing this year. I think Atlanta scores in this game.

On the other side of the ball, I think the question we have to ask is... are we looking at any sort of buy-low spot with Miami? This might have been the worst possible situation Miami could possibly be in.

The Falcons do play indoors... which is much more suited for Mike McDaniel's offense. So can the Dolphins offense bounce back? The offensive line is still a mess and has been all year. Now Darren Waller is out. Also backup TE Julian Hill is out... so they're really thin at TE.

Now Atlanta's defense is dealing with some injuries also. Divine Diablo has been excellent for them this year and he's gonna miss this one. Bill Bowman Jr. is also out.

The Falcons defensive numbers against the run look pretty terrible on the season and Achane is probably the only bright spot on this Miami team right now.

And the thing with this Dolphins offense... they've actually played 3 games against arguably 3 top 5 run defenses that might be skewing their rushing numbers a bit. Outside of those 3 games, Miami's actually been able to run the ball.

Is it crazy to think the Dolphins can run the ball in this game?

Now we know the Falcons are gonna be sending a ton of blitzes... and we know that offensive line is battered. Tua does get the ball out quickly though.

I think both offenses can move the ball in this game... the problem is I think it's mostly gonna be on the ground and neither team moves at a particularly fast pace.

I'd go over 44.5 in this one. I'd probably lean Falcons at a flat 7.

BILLS @ PANTHERS - 1 PM EST

It's crazy to say this... but this side of the ball is a battle. Buffalo's offense against Carolina's defense.

This Panthers team has played great defense at home so far this season.. and it's not like they've played scrub offenses.

And shoutout to the defensive front. They seem to be getting better as the season progresses. Derrick Brown is emerging as one of the best defensive players in the NFL.

They really might be able to take the run away from Buffalo. We saw New England take the run away... you can't let Josh Allen get into 2nd and shorts cuz that really opens up big plays down the field.

Now in terms of Josh Allen throwing the ball... it's gonna be a challenge. Carolina doesn't have much of a pass rush and Josh Allen from a clean pocket... there's just no way Buffalo's offense is gonna be shut down here. But if they can take the run away like New England did, all it takes is one mistake to ruin a drive.

Josh Allen might be missing a couple of receiving weapons but I still don't think it's realistic to think he's unable to make throws on this defense.

So we know Josh Allen is gonna make some plays, but we saw Carolina take the run away from Dallas and that Cowboys offense that looks unstoppable against everybody... didn't look so unstoppable in Carolina.

On the other side of the ball, can Buffalo stop the Panthers on the ground? Where did this come from?

This team has been STEAMROLLING defenses on the ground. The offensive line is healthy.

Bills defense is dealing with injuries.

Now obviously, we've gotta talk about the QB situation here. It doesn't look like Bryce Young is gonna play... which means Andy Dalton is most likely getting the start. The thing is... the rest of the offense is healthy. Remember, this offense has spent a lot of the year missing several starters. They've got offensive linemen back, they've got WRs back, they've got RBs back.

How much of a dropoff in production are we expecting here?

I don't think this number should be above 6.5... and you add on the spot?

GIANTS @ EAGLES - 1 PM EST

We all know what happened a couple weeks ago on Thursday night. Now a couple things to take note of in this game. 1) This was not a fluke... the Giants dominated every aspect of this game. They won the battle on the LOS on both sides of the ball. 2) This was such a perfect spot for the Giants. Short week at home... they even rested some of their guys in the Saints game before that. Giants treated that game like the Super Bowl and Jalen Carter didn't even play.

When I originally talked about this game, I said Eagles at a flat 7... since then, AJ Brown and Cam Jurgens have been ruled out.

But the Giants defense has some key injuries also.

The Eagles should be able to run the ball on this Giants defense.

They weren't able to in Week 6. That was a short week, on the road in MetLife, against a Giants team that spent two weeks preparing for that game.

The Giants have gotten run on in basically every other one of their games except the Saints game.

So you would think, at home, that the Eagles would be able to run the ball. Also, Jalen Hurts has been really efficient throwing the ball. After getting beat by this team, I would imagine the Eagles offense is ready to go.

On the other side of the ball... this is a crapshoot in my opinion. How good is this new Giants offense? And what do we think of the Eagles defense right now?

Giants are moving the ball... last week was a statement.

Jackson Dart played well against Philly a couple weeks ago.

I think that mighta been a bit of a fluke though... that was Philadelphia's worst defensive game against the pass so far this year.

The Eagles will have Carter and Mitchell on the field for this one.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Dart throw a bad pick. It would only be Eagles for me in this one.

BEARS @ RAVENS - 1 PM EST

Baltimore wants to run the ball and they've been through a gauntlet of tough run defenses.

Chicago may have limited the Saints run game... but we can't just forget that every other team the Bears have seen ran the ball all over em.

The Bears don't have a pass rush... perfect game for Lamar to come back.

I know the Ravens defense is a concern... but they got off to a really slow start last year and ended up being a really strong defense down the stretch. They're also gonna be pissed off. This team's back is against the wall.

This defense is coming it's best game of the year last week against the Rams. Now Roquan Smith is back.

PACKERS @ STEELERS - 8 PM EST

So if you look at this graphic, it would look like Green Bay's offense has the serious advantage here.

But the Packers have been on cruise control in terms of the schedule. It's been a while since we've seen this team play a good defense. Let's not forget how this Green Bay offense looked last time they saw a good defense.

I know Pittsburgh's defense looked bad the last time we saw them... but it kinda reminds me of the Eagles Giants game. It was a short week, on the road and against a team that was treating that game like their Super Bowl.