NFL Week 7 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 19
- 10 min read
RAMS vs JAGUARS - 9:30 AM
I know we covered Rams -7 last week... but not gonna lie, that was a bit shaky. A two touchdown win on the road is not something we should scoff at. I do wanna say though... that's back to back shaky performances from the Rams.
It's not that the offense was bad last week... they were moving the ball... sustaining drives. They just could finish in the redzone and that's starting to become a pattern here for this Rams team. They gotta finish these drives.
And now they're coming into this one hobbled.
Jags defense will be missing Devin Lloyd which hurts.
Jacksonville has played good defense against the run so far this year outside of one game. We should note that they haven't played a ton of rushing attacks... but I think we've seen enough where we can start to trust Jacksonville's defensive front.
Rams run game has been good... but struggling to run the ball against that injured Baltimore front 7 is concerning. Now they go overseas to see another AFC team in what would be one of the more meaningless games? I could see the Jags putting up a fight here.
On top of that... we know the Jags are living in zone coverage this year... that's why they traded Tyson Campbell for Greg Newsome cuz it was a better fit. Stafford actually doesn't have the greatest numbers against zone so far this year.
On the other side of the ball, this is where the Rams have the advantage.
I really dk if I think Jacksonville can run the ball in this game. The Rams have been good against the run... not elite but good. The Jags run game has slowed down in the last few games.
So do we think Trevor Lawrence can play well in this game? Well let's give him some credit... he's been better.
Let's also not forget... we've got journeyman when it comes to overseas games. Trevor Lawrence is the king of Europe.
Now let's not pretend like shit's gonna be sweet in this game though... the Rams have a very good pass rush and Trevor Lawrence hasn't been very efficient this season.
I'm leaning towards the Jags here but I don't think there's any edge. 3 is probably the correct number. I'd also lean under. The games in Wembley have been pretty low scoring over the years. We tend to see higher scoring games in Tottenham.
RAIDERS @ CHIEFS - 1 PM
So we've got the Raiders going on the road to Arrowhead... but before we go laying the huge number with Kansas City. We first need to point out that the Raiders have played KC tough in 3 straight games. In fact, the Raiders are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 games against the Chiefs. The last two teams they went to Arrowhead, they lost 19-17 on a missed FG... and the year before that, they won outright.
Now we know the Raiders offense has been bad... but honestly, so has the Chiefs defense.
And the Chiefs as a whole have looked better... but it's really the offense that's coming around. The defense is actually trending in the wrong direction.
The problem is... I don't think the Raiders are able to generate enough push upfront to exploit the Chiefs struggling run defense. I know Jeanty broke a couple big ones in the Bears game but the truth is.. this offensive line just keeps getting blown off the ball.
Remember... Raiders are missing their best offensive lineman in Kolton Miller. He's missed the last two. Brock Bowers also most likely not playing in this one.
So do we trust Geno Smith to play well? Well Geno on the road against Spags blitz packages and the Chiefs pass rush is honestly terrifying.
Now if you're looking to take the big number with the Raiders here, you can point at the fact that Geno Smith has played much better on the road.
On the other side of the ball, we get to the strengths of both teams.
Here's the thing... the Raiders have done an excellent job against the run so far this year outside of the BS Washington game.
The problem is... not only are the Chiefs a pass-first offense, but Mahomes seems to be getting better and better as the season progresses. His last 3 games were much better than his first 3 games.
And of course... Rashee Rice is back.
And btw... the Raiders pass rush numbers don't look that great so far this year.
It would only be KC for me.
DOLPHINS @ BROWNS - 1 PM
I suppose the lead story in this one is the weather.
Cleveland's run game has been coming around a little bit. Their last two were against Pittsburgh and Minnesota and the rushing numbers were actually kinda decent in those games.
And the Browns offensive line looks to be in better shape than I originally thought it would be.
Miami might have the worst run defense in the NFL.
And they seem to bet getting worse! It's not like they're playing powerhouse offenses. Buffalo ok... but the Jets, Panthers and injured Chargers?
The concern for the Browns offensive line are the OTs... which could be a problem cuz the one this MIami's defense has is edge rushers. But Dillon Gabriel gets rid of the ball so quickly that I'm not sure how big of a factor edge rushers are in this game.
I'm not suggesting the Browns offense is going to look elite or anything like that... but they can probably run the ball a bit. The real reason I bet Cleveland is on the other side though. What are we expecting the Dolphins offense to do here on the road in Cleveland?
Remember... Tua always plays much better at home. He's been a nightmare on the road and this dates back multiple years.
I'm on the Browns at -1.5.
PATRIOTS @ TITANS - 1 PM
Well I'm pretty sure we can count on New England to score points in this game. The phrase I've been using the last few weeks is this is the best offensive in the NFL that nobody's talking about.
It would be tough to find a QB in the league playing better than Drake Maye right now.
Now the Titans defense has been better in the last few games... but they also played some really bad offenses.
It looks like the Titans are gonna be missing both their edge rushers in this one. Remember, they traded Brownlee too so their thinner at CB.
Now here's why I don't have a bet on the Patriots... I don't think their defense is very good.
Now here's why I don't have a bet on the Patriots... I don't think their defense is very good. We just saw Spencer Rattler have arguably the best game of his career. Statistically, it was the 2nd best game of his career... but the other one, he racked up a ton of his passing numbers in garbage time. This was a close game... I think you can make an argument that this was the best game of his career.
If it was just one game, I'd say ok whatever, they played a bad game. But we've seen this all season.
Christian Gonzalez is back and that certainly helps... but he's been back for 3 games and we're still seeing this team struggle against the pass.
I know the Titans offense is terrible... trust me. And they're missing Calvin Ridley. They do finally get JC Latham back on the offensive line though.
Both of these teams have thrown the ball a decent amount. I expect the Patriots to score and I expect the Titans to be throwing the ball playing from behind. I think we'll see points.
I'm on over at 41.5. I'd play it anything 43.5 or below.
SAINTS @ BEARS - 1 PM
Look at this Chicago Bears team! 3 wins in a row... I gotta say though... they were gifted the last two.
I don't think the Bears defense is very good. They were put in a perfect situation last week. They were coming off the bye week. Washington's offense must missing their WRs. Two weeks to prepare... and still, once Washington gifted them a 13-0 lead with turnovers, they absolutely dominated that game.
The Bears defense lost a LB in that game, Noah Sewell. We'll see if Grady Jarrett is able to play.. either way, I don't think there's any reason to expect the Bears to stop the run. I also don't trust them against the pass.
Chicago hasn't shown much of a pass rush this year. They blitz a lot but it very rarely works. Spencer Rattler's actually got efficient passing numbers against the blitz.
And we're talking about a completely healthy Saints offensive line.
It's flying under the radar... but this Saints offense is actually looking alright recently. In their last 3 games, the offense has looked pretty good.
Saints are gonna score in this game... the question is... do you trust the Saints defense to make stops?
So good news for the Bears.. D'Andre Swift has been practicing and I think he's gonna play.
Just like the Bears... the Saints blitz but it hasn't worked. Caleb Williams should have clean pockets to throw from and he has had success throwing the ball when given time.
Look... Caleb Williams is gonna be in a great spot to have a good game. But the Saints should be able to score right back. If Caleb Williams plays a clean game, the Bears should win this one by a TD. But if he gives me one big mistake, this game should come down to the wire. I like the Saints here.
EAGLES @ VIKINGS - 1 PM
The Eagles have now lost back to back games... and honestly, if you consider the Rams and Bucs games went before that, it could be 4 losses in a row.
Philly's in a spot where they need to stop the skid. They're now going on the road to play a strong Vikings team that's coming off a bye. Good news for the Eagles... Vikings run defense has not looked like last year's team.
More good news for the Eagles... looks like Landon Dickerson is gonna play. They missed him last week against the Giants. Not only has he been practicing all week, but Friday's practice was an FP.
Now the Vikings might be getting Blake Cashman back which would be big for them. He hasn't played since the opener.
I'm not sure if this solves their problems though. This has been going on all season. We just saw the Steelers and Browns running the ball on Minnesota.
This might be the ultimate buy-low spot on Saquon Barkley and the Eagles run game. It's looked bad for 3 straight games. Look at the opponents... this is kinda crazy. Getting Dickerson back... some extra rest (although the Vikings had a bye)... I think we're looking at a buy-low.
Obviously Jalen Hurts is going to be under pressure... but he's been really efficient under pressure so far this year. If they've got run support, I think we can count on the Eagles offense to play a good one.
On the other side of the ball, Philadelphia's defense is a concern... but so is Minnesota's offense.
What's going on with this Vikings offense?
Last time we saw JJ McCarthy, it wasn't pretty.
The Eagles should have Jalen Carter back on the field for this one. They badly needed him in that Giants game.
Eagles need this one... I expect the run to be there. I don't trust the Vikings offense. Eagles -1.5.
PANTHERS @ JETS - 1 PM
Jets were so close to getting one last week overseas.
So Carolina's offense looks like it's gonna be much healthier in this game than they have been.
And this Jets defense is missing pieces.
I know Carolina's been running the ball... but they played back to back games... at home... against the two worst run defenses in the NFL.
The Jets defense hasn't been great... and they are injured at LB. But that defensive line is still pretty talented. They're miles above the Cowboys and Dolphins in terms of defending the run.
And speaking of the Dolphins and Cowboys, you wanna know who else played the Dolphins and Cowboys and were running the shit out of the ball on em? The Jets. So the Panthers newly found run game looks slightly less impressive when you consider the Jets did the same damn thing.
I know this Jets offense is bad... and looking at this graphic, you might think "Carolina can shut these guys down".
They're also most likely missing their best offensive weapon.
But remember.. this game is at MetLife. And you might think... what's the big deal? Well the big deal is Carolina's looked like an entirely different team on the road this year. The Panthers are 3-0 with 3 good defensive games at home... they're 0-3 with 3 bad defensive games on the road.
Carolina is the better team... and they've gotten healthier... but this team has played so badly on the road. The defense and Bryce Young also. I dk how I could bet them as a road favorite.
It would only bet Jets for me here.
COLTS @ CHARGERS - 4 PM
I don't trust the Chargers offense. I think they can move the ball here. This Colts defense isn't very good. Look at their recent opponents.
And I get it... the Chargers offense is a mess... The injuries to RB and offensive line. There's just so many moving pieces with this Chargers offense that it's really tough to count on them.
But Kenny Moore and Charvarius Ward are banged up as well.
I don't trust this Chargers offense at all... but the Colts can't stop the run. They don't have much of a pass rush. I think it might be a perfect get-right spot for the Chargers offense.
Now what the Colts can do... is move the football. Specifically on the ground. This is probably the best rushing attack in the NFL right now with the Ravens and Eagles off to slow starts.
And this Chargers defensive has been getting run on badly.
I don't think the Chargers defense can stop the Colts on the ground... but they should be a bit healthier.
I don't trust Daniel Jones to play well in this one out on the west coast. We're seeing the turnover worthy throws come out... he's also been dinking and dunking all year... throws more short passes than any QB in the NFL. The Chargers defense is 1st in passer rating allowed via short passes.
I think it's a decent time to consider selling Daniel Jones stock. He's played a lotta games at home against a lot of bad football teams. He's only played two road games... one was against the Titans and the other was against the Rams, which was by far his worst game.
I've had my finger on the Chargers pulse.
I think the Chargers get this one. Chargers -1.5.
COMMANDERS @ COWBOYS - 4 PM
I don't see how Dallas makes a single stop in this game. Last week, I took the Bears because they had the huge rest advantage... coming off a bye week. Dallas has a 1 day rest advantage.
Once we saw Washington settle in last week, they were ripping the Bears defense to shreds. The Bears went up 13-0 on two early Washington turnovers. The Commanders absolutely dominated the rest of that game. Dallas defense is worse than Chicago's... in fact, it's way worse. Washington should score on every possession. I'm not gonna pretend like I think Washington's defense will shut down Dak Prescott and the Cowboys offense... but I do think Dallas has been over-performing.
Everyone thinks... with possibly Lamb returning... couple pieces possible returning on the offensive line.. that this offense is going to look better. I personally think they've been producing at a far higher rate than they should and I wouldn't be surprised to see a down week. Washington does have a pass rush.
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