NFL Week 7 Monday
- Kyle Kirms
- 5 days ago
- 4 min read
BUCCANEERS @ LIONS - 7 PM
Well here we are again... Baker Mayfield as a road dog.
But Baker Mayfield might meet his match here. Because we're talking about Dan Campbell coming off a loss. In the last 4 years, the Lions are 12-4 S/U and 12-4 ATS coming off a loss.
Including... 11 in a row.
I'm sure you're aware that the main story between these two teams is injuries.
The Lions secondary is absolutely cooked... but they might have Alim McNeill and DJ Reader on the field at the same time for the first time this season.
Considering the Bucs haven't been able to run the ball all year... and they've got serious problems on the offensive line. I think it's safe to say they're gonna struggle to run the ball in this game.
Which means... it's all on Baker Mayfield. The good news for Tampa is he's been on a rampage. He's coming off his best two games of the season.
He's got almost a perfect passer rating under pressure in his last two games. That's not sustainable at all. But considering the Lions secondary is crushed, maybe it is.
The Lions normally play a lotta man coverage... which would be a decent matchup because Baker's got much better numbers against zone. The injuries to the secondary make it tough... but if Mike Evans and Egbuka don't play then maybe they can still run man successfully.
I also don't like how Baker is not a dink and dunk QB... those are the types of passes that have given the Lions problems this year. Baker's throws the ball downfield.
It's hard to envision Baker Mayfield getting shut down with that thin secondary. But he's gonna have no run support... he can't keep operating at the same level he has been the past couple weeks. He was putting the ball in harm's way earlier in the season. I could see him throwing a bad pick in this game. The Lions have also played much better defense at home.
On the other side of the ball, obviously we know running the ball on this Bucs defense is tough.
The run defense hasn't looked as sharp in the last two games though.
in fact, the Bucs defense has kinda gotten carved up in back to back games.
I personally think Detroit can still run the ball in this game. Stopping the Lions run game at Ford Field is tough. And idk how they're gonna slow down Jared Goff and the passing attack. Just like Baker Mayfield, Goff is coming off back to back great games.
We know Todd Bowles is gonna be blitzing... cuz that's what Todd Bowles does. But Jared Goff's been elite against the blitz so far this year. On the season, only Drake Maye and Lamar Jackson have been better against the blitz than Jared Goff.
I like the Lions to put up points in this game. The pace is scaring me off the over. The Lions have run a significantly faster pace at home so far this year... but it's still not a fast pace.
I'll say Lions. How do you lay 6 points to Baker Mayfield though?
TEXANS @ SEAHAWKS - 10 PM
Houston coming into this one with some momentum. They went into the bye week after back to back blowout wins. Now I'm not sure how much credit we're giving them for beating the Titans at home and then the Ravens missing their entire team. But still, Houston possibly coming into this one with some confidence.
They're in a much different situation here... on the road against a very strong Seattle defense.
And we're talking about a Seahawks defense that's probably getting all their stars back in the secondary. All 3 of them were out last week and Witherspoon / Love have missed multiple games.
Houston hasn't had much of a run game all year... and nobody's run the ball on this Seahawks defensive front all year... especially in Seattle.
We know the Seahawks pass rush is gonna be a problem. CJ Stroud needs clean pockets to throw from and I'm not sure how many they'll get in this one.
Remember, we're talking about CJ Stroud on the road. He did play well in Baltimore... but his first two road starts of the season were shaky. CJ Stroud has a history of playing much better at home in Houston.
The Texans are coming off a bye week... so maybe the extra prep time will have em ready. And the offensive line is healthy which is obviously huge. But I still don't know how we can fully trust this offense.
On the other side of the ball, this is where we're gonna have a battle. Because Houston's defense is elite and Sam Darnold is playing out of his mind right now.
The Texans pass rush is elite. They generate pressure without blitzing... but Sam Darnold's been one of the best QBs in the NFL when pressured so far this year.
Sam Darnold's got a passer rating over 130 in his last 4 games. Now I think we do need to point out that this is against some questionable secondaries.
Houston's defense has been elite against the pass recently. But look at the QBs. Remember they played good defense against Baker Mayfield in the game before these also.
This defense is healthy. They're rested. They're much better than anything Seattle's seen recently.
I think we're gonna see Sam Darnold struggle for the first time in a while... I like Houston to play a great defensive game. I can't trust em to score though. The Texans have run a really slow pace this year. How about an under?
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