NFL Week 6 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 12
- 10 min read
BRONCOS VS JETS - 9:30 AM
So the Jets have lost back to back games.
This is what I can't figure out about the Jets. In those last two games, they're averaging 7 YPP. For reference, the Rams lead the NFL this season with 6.4 YPP.
So now when we look at the Jets offensive numbers in the 3 games with Justin Fields, it's actually kinda crazy.
Now I don't think this means they can move the ball on Denver's defense. But I do think we at least to acknowledge that this Jets offense isn't completely terrible. They might be able to move the chains here and there.
Justin Fields actually has efficient passing numbers under pressure and against the blitz so far this year... which is obviously what you expect to see from Denver's defense.
He's also got great numbers against man coverage, which is exactly what Denver runs. Now, this is a bit tongue-in-cheek... it's only 17 dropbacks.
Also... Jets have been running the ball a bit. Denver's defense hasn't been that great against the run. They're allowing 4.4 YPC in their last 4 games. All I'm saying is I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets can move the ball a little in this games.
On the other side of the ball, how good do we think this Broncos offense is?
Denver's missing an offensive lineman in this one.
But the injuries are definitely worse for the Jets defense.
Despite that... I still just don't know how good I think Denver's offense is. I promise I'm not trying to be a Denver hater. I feel like they don't pass the eye test.
Idk I can't back the Jets. Denver probably controls this game. I expect to see conservative playcalling. Jets are the worst defense in the NFL against the short pass so far this year... Jets should stick to the run. I'm on UNDER 44.5.
PATRIOTS @ SAINTS - 1 PM
New England coming off the biggest win they've had as a franchise in a while now. Upset the Bills in Buffalo on prime time. Huge win for the Patriots. So you'd think "maybe a letdown spot". But New Orleans is coming off a nice win themselves. Spencer Rattler's first career win.
So we know the Patriots are most likely gonna be able to move the ball in this game. The Patriots are the best offense in the NFL right now that nobody's talking about.
The Patriots had that rough opener against the Raiders.. since then this offense has been moving.
Drake Maye's been very efficient throwing the ball. He's handled pressure well. Now there's definitely been a few bad defenses in there... but what do we consider New Orleans to be?
The Saints have blitzed a lot... still not generating much pressure. They're dead last in seconds to pressure this year. Drake Maye's got excellent numbers against the blitz. He's got excellent numbers from a clean pocket.
Saints defense is also a big banged up. Julian Blackmon got injured in Week 1. The rest of these guys participated in practice so I think all 3 of them are gonna play.
Now we do need to give the Saints defense some credit. They played a pretty solid game last week... was definitely their best defensive game of the season. But the Giants turned the ball over 5 times to 0. They had a 50% success rate. They weren't really making stops as much as they were just letting the Giants continue to shoot themselves in the foot.
There's really nothing that indicates the Saints can make stops against this Patriots offense... who is fully healthy btw.
On the other side of the ball, I gotta say I really don't know what I think about New England's defense. They've shown us enough where we can trust this run defense... they've struggled against the pass.
Now they were missing Christian Gonzalez the first 3 games of the year. He's been back the last two games.
New England is 2-0 since he's returned but the defenses hasn't exactly been lights out. New England's offense looks great. I'm not really sold on the defense.
If New Orleans puts a healthy offense on the field, I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to move the ball on this Patriots defense. I don't trust the secondary.
I'm on New England and I got a great number (-2.5). At the current price, I'd be looking to play on an over. Patriots can score... New Orleans runs a fast pace. In the Superdome. Over 45.5.
CARDINALS @ COLTS - 1 PM
Obviously, the lead story in this one is Kyler Murray. He did participate in a light practice on Friday so we'll see.
It's a foot injury which is concerning... because if he's hobbled and doesn't have the same mobility, I feel that makes Lou Anarumo's job a lot easier. Arizona hasn't posed much of a threat on the ground so far this year.
I don't trust this Colts run defense at all. It does seem to be getting slightly better as the season progresses... but that could be due to the fact that they've seen a couple bad offenses. But the Cardinals would also be classified as a bad offense.
The Colts pass rush numbers don't look great on the season and Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett could possibly have opportunities to make throws from a clean pocket. But they've actually got a higher pressure rate in their last few games. I don't see any reason to trust the Cardinals offense... whether Kyler Murray plays or not.
On the other side of the ball, the Cardinals defensive front has been strong and that comes in handy against a Colts offense that loves to run the ball.
But we're kinda seeing the Cardinals defensive front come back down to earth. It hasn't looked nearly the same the last two. And it's not like they've seen elite offenses.
And yeah I guess you could say the same for the Colts offense but not really. He hasn't looked quite as crisp... but it's still been very efficient.
On top of that, this Cardinals defense is so banged up. Honestly, they deserve credit. They really did play some solid defense early in the season... but the injuries seem to be catching up to them.
Colts should win this one comfortably.
RAMS @ RAVENS - 1 PM
Rams coming off a tough division loss on primetime.
It should be a great spot for the Rams to bounce back... especially on the offensive side of the ball because Baltimore might have the worst defense in the NFL.
Now they are a bit healthier than last week... but this defense is still decimated. And remember, this defense was struggling before all the injuries. This defensive front is actually terrible.
How are they going to stop the Rams on the ground? Rams have been running the ball efficiently the last few games.
On top of that, how are they gonna get pressure on Matt Stafford? This might be the worst pass rush in the NFL.
I don't see how the Ravens defense makes stops in this game. We just saw this unit get completely lit up by Houston last week. Yes, they're in a bit better shape for this one. But the Rams offense is way better than Houston's... and they're coming into this game with 3 extra days rest.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams defense did really struggle with Mac Jones. So I suppose there's hope here for Baltimore in some small capacity. But obviously, we're not gonna see Lamar Jackson again in this one.
I took Rams -7.
SEAHAWKS @ JAGUARS - 1 PM
Normally I start with the away team's offense but I think we need to start with the Seahawks defense because this secondary is cooked.
Now the good news is... Jacksonville's been a run-first offense this year and their run game has been far more dangerous than their passing attack. Seattle's defensive front is healthy... and they've been elite against the run.
Now we do need to point out... the Seahawks haven't played a single team that can run the ball yet this year. In fact, in terms of EPA/rush, the Steelers are the only rushing attack they've seen this year not in the bottom 6 of the NFL.
That being said, the Jags are kinda guilty of the same thing. They racked up some elite looking rushing numbers in the first two weeks against the Panthers and Bengals. We've seen the Jags run game come crashing down to earth the last few weeks. So I don't think the run will be there much in this one.
So the question becomes... just how vulnerable is this Seattle secondary and can Trevor Lawrence take advantage of it? I personally think he might be able to here. Baker Mayfield ripped this team to shred last week. He wasn't under a ton of pressure at all and he was holding onto the football.
Now we know Trevor Lawrence has not played well this season... but let's give him some credit. He just played his best game of the season and he was under a lot of pressure in that game. Add on the fact that the Seahawks are flying completely across the country, over 3,000 miles while the Jags don't have to move.
Jacksonville is gonna be missing their center. So maybe some concerns there... but I really think the Jags offense can move the ball on Seattle in this game.
The question is... can we trust the Jags defense? The numbers look great on the season.
But I gotta say... Jags defense didn't look good at all on Monday night. The Chiefs were moving the ball up and down the field without an issue basically the entire game.
And this Seahawks offense is just a wagon. They got off to a shaky start in the opener against the 49ers, since then they've looked really good. They even seem to be getting better. Now you do have to consider the opponents they've seen... but Tampa is a respectable defense and they carved them up last week.
Sam Darnold is playing out of his mind right now.
Jags will be getting Travon Walker back which is huge... but remember Tyson Campbell is gone. They've got Greg Newsome II at corner... who's a good player... in fact, I think Jacksonville sees it as an upgrade. But he's never played with this team before.
I think Seattle can score points in this game... and I think the defensive front can dominate, bailing the thin secondary out a bit. But it's such a favorable spot for the Jags and this team just keeps finding ways to win. I lean Seattle... but I think I'd go over 47.5.
COWBOYS @ PANTHERS - 1 PM
The story of this game is injuries.
Cowboys offense is crushed... but they were crushed last week and they lit the Jets defense up something serious.
So I think they'll continue to roll here against the Panthers defense. Although I gotta say... we shouldn't sleep on this Carolina defense at home. They've actually played lights out defense in both their home games so far this year.
They've also won both those games... is this Panthers team a wagon at home?
I really dk what to think on this side of the ball. The way Dak Prescott is playing right now, I'd have to think this Dallas offense is gonna score points. They've also been the most efficient rushing offense in the NFL so far this year which is crazy.
On the other side of the ball, we have the Cowboys defense... which has been basically the complete opposite of the offense.
And if you're thinking "oh well Kyle, the Panthers offense isn't any good". Well take a look at these 3 games. These are the Cowboys defensive numbers against the Giants, the Bears and the Jets.
Carolina's offense is rocked... but it was rocked last week as well and they came back from down 17-0 to win at home. Also... Rico Dowdle revenge game.
CHARGERS @ DOLPHINS - 1 PM
I know this looks like such a mismatch here... the Chargers offense against the Dolphins defense.
But this Chargers offensive line is in terrible shape right now and it's really affecting Justin Herbert. Remember... Justin Herbert is a guy that likes to hold onto the football and go through his progressions. If he doesn't have time, you can really put this Chargers offense in a bad spot.
This offense is a mess right now.
The Dolphins run defense has looked awful... don't get me wrong. But the state the Chargers offensive line is in right now... missing both RBs. I just dk how you trust LAC to put up a big number on the road here.
On the other side, the Chargers defense is really holding their own despite the injuries.
Obviously, Tua's status is a concern. But if he plays, this Dolphins offense has always been much better at home at Hard Rock.
The Dolphins offense is a mess too, don't get me wrong. But Tua's been taken off the injury report, at least.
I'm on Dolphins +4.5
BROWNS @ STEELERS - 1 PM
So what do we think of this Cleveland offense now? It's been arguably the worst offense in the NFL so far this year.
I gotta say... it's a miracle that Cleveland +4.5 covered last week because the Vikings were considerably more efficient on both sides of the ball.
I still don't 100% trust the Steelers defense. I suppose they were slightly better in their last two games... but the efficiency numbers are still pretty bad.
They're also healthier than they have been all season.
Pittsburgh's got the ultimate advantage here, at home, coming off a bye week while Cleveland has to fly back from Europe. The Steelers pass rush should be rested and ready to go. Let's give some credit to Dillon Gabriel... he wasn't completely terrible last week. Got rid of the ball quickly.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns defense should give Pittsburgh all kinds of problems.
Aaron Rodgers has really struggled with pressure so far this year and you know that Cleveland pass rush is serious. The good news is Rodgers has done a great job getting the ball out quickly this year... which will definitely help in this one.
But this is still a bad matchup. He's struggled against man coverage and he's struggled against 1H safety looks this year.
Look at the line of scrimmage metrics on this side of the ball. Pittsburgh's offensive line might definitely be outmatched in this one.
The idea of laying 5.5 points in a game where I'm really not sure I trust the offense to score points is tough. But the scheduling spot is just too favorable. Also, Mike Tomlin vs rookie QBs.
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