NFL Week 6 Monday
- Kyle Kirms
- 6 days ago
- 5 min read
BILLS @ FALCONS - 7:15 PM
Buffalo's week 2 win over the Jets. Justin Fields leaves the game injured and Tyrod Taylor finished it out. Why am I bringing this game up? Well, this is the last time the Bills covered the spread. It's been almost a full calendar month since Buffalo covered the number. It's also the last time they went on the road.
Not that they've been bad... they're 2-1 in those games and the two wins were double digit wins... but been a while since we've seen Buffalo cover the number.
The offense has been fine. In fact, it's been probably the most efficient offense in the NFL during that span. Even in the New England game, they were moving the ball. It was the 3 turnovers that lost em that game... not their inability to move the football.
So I guess the question we gotta ask is... what do we think of this Falcons defense? The numbers look good so far this year.
In addition to playing well, they're coming off a bye week and are getting arguably their best defensive player back from injury. AJ Terrell hasn't played since Week 2.
I do have some concerns with this Atlanta defense though. First one being... they've struggled with the run a bit. Now these numbers aren't terrible... but teams have been able to move the chains running the football against this Falcons defense recently.
You can't let Buffalo move the chains on the ground. We all know Josh Allen can light the secondary up and those are the highlights we see... but Joe Brady wants to run the football. And if the run game is working, it's almost impossible to stop Buffalo. The first step to having a chance of beating the Bills is you have to take away the run... and I'm not sure the Falcons can do that.
This Bills offense likes to rock you to sleep with the run game.. run a slow pace.. make you commit to stop it... and then beat you over the top. And they should be able to do exactly that against the Falcons. Atlanta runs a very aggressive defense. They blitz a lot... and they sit in 1H safety. Josh Allen's got solid numbers against the blitz so far this year and he's connected on some big throws when blitzed.
And on top of that, look at Josh Allen's numbers against 1H safety this year. 12.6% deep throw rate.
The Bills are also pretty much fully healthy on this side of the ball also. Kincaid's been practicing so I think he plays. I don't think the Falcons defense is bad... but I don't think they can stop this Buffalo offense... especially pissed off, coming off a loss.
On the other side of the ball, we've got the Falcons offense coming off a bye week... and right before the bye week, they had an excellent offensive game against Washington.
But I'm still not sure if I think this is a good offense yet. We know they want to run the ball. They're 4th in the NFL in rushing frequency... and they should have some success doing it against a Bills defense that always seems to struggle against the run.
But we've seen this before... we've seen McDermott coach these games before. He's willing to let Atlanta take 4 or 5 yards on the ground. He won't even make adjustments to take it away... he knows eventually one of his defensive lineman is gonna make a play... and it's gonna be 2nd and 10... and you're gonna have to dropback to pass against that pass rush and that secondary. And I just don't know if I think Penix is the guy to make the throws.
Now the Bills are gonna be missing Milano again which hurts.
Penix did have a big game against Washington and I don't want to sweep that under the rug.
But we can't just ignore the first 3 games of the season. If this was only Minnesota, I'd give him a pass... Vikings defense is tough. But the Bucs secondary isn't anything crazy and Carolina gave him all kinds of problems.
This Buffalo pass rush is as good as it gets in the NFL. Buffalo's gonna score and I don't think Bijan Robinson averaging 5 YPC is gonna be enough to keep up.
I'm on Buffalo -3.5.
BEARS @ COMMANDERS - 8:15 PM
Don't look now... but the Chicago Bears have won 2 games in a row.
We should probably point out though... they did not deserve to win that last one in Las Vegas. The Raiders averaged 7.0 YPP to the Bears 4.5. The Raiders turned the ball over 4 times... that's why Chicago won that game.
I don't wanna completely condemn the Bears offense though.. struggling to move the ball on that Raiders defense isn't a terrible look. The Raiders actually have a pretty strong defense. Chicago's offense hadn't looked too bad up to that point. Now obviously, we know they racked up a ton of these numbers in the Dallas game. They also had a couple TD drives late in garbage time of the Detroit game.
The point I'm making is this Bears offense is definitely better than it was last year. Does that mean we can count on em to move the ball here against Washington?
One thing we know Washington can do is pressure the passer. Remember, this team added Von Miller and Preston Smith this season. Washington has a good pass rush. That's obviously a concern because Caleb Williams has a tendency to hold onto the football. He also doesn't make the greatest throws under pressure.
Washington does run some man coverage and Caleb and those Bears WRs can definitely beat man. So there might be some opportunities to make some plays.
Couple other positives here for the Bears offense. Not only are they coming off a bye week and back to back wins... but also, they get Darnell Wright back who's one of their best offensive lineman. He didn't play in the Raiders game.
I'm not sure if he'll have run support... Bears haven't had much of a run game this year... but I don't consider Washington to have a strong run defense either. The numbers look pretty good but they've only played one legitimate rushing attack and Green Bay ran the ball all over them.
On the other side of the ball, this is where the Commanders have the advantage, although I do think these numbers are inflated a bit.
Now the good news for Washington is right here. Chicago just cannot stop the run so far this year.
Getting TJ Edwards back is huge... and that definitely helps. But there's still no Grady Jarrett. Even coming off the bye week, it's tough to make a case for the Bears stopping the run.
Outside of the Green Bay game, the Commanders have been consistently running the ball all season. So Washington will be able to run the ball in this game.
This offense is really banged up right now. If Deebo Samuel doesn't play, they've got basically zero experience at WR and RB.
Jayden Daniels passing numbers haven't been efficient at all this season.
The Bears blitz a lot... but they don't generate much pressure... which is an awful combination. But Jayden Daniels has struggled against the blitz... and his numbers from a clean pocket aren't very good. Honest question, does Jayden Daniels standing in a clean pocket with those WRs really scare you?
Washington's gonna be able to control the game with the run... but I don't know if that's quite enough to cover a big number like 5.5... especially when Idk how much production they'll get through the air. Bears coming off a bye week... I lean towards Chicago here. I also don't hate the under... the problem is Washington tends to run a fast pace... that could kill it.
