NFL Week 5 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Oct 5
- 14 min read
VIKINGS @ BROWNS - 9:30 AM
Minnesota's offense is coming into this game hobbled. Ryan Kelly suffered his 2nd concussion of the season and will miss this game along with 2 other pieces on this offensive line.
Vikings couldn't run the ball at all last week against Pittsburgh.
Idk how we can expect the run game to be there for Minnesota in this one. Cleveland's looking like they might have the best run defense in the NFL so far this year.
Keep in mind... nobody has run the ball on the Browns yet this year. Their defensive front is first in basically every single advanced metric.
It's not like the Browns haven't played anybody...
Now Carson Wentz has played alright... and they've got talented WRs for days. I don't want to just completely count out the Vikings offense. But without run support, Wentz should be under a ton of pressure. I trust the Browns defense a lot more at home in Cleveland... but this is still a problem.
On the other side of the ball, this is where the advantage swings back heavily towards Minnesota. I will say... Vikings run defense hasn't been quite the same yet this year.
Kenneth Gainwell had a really efficient game running the ball on this defense last week.
I'm not sure if I really trust Cleveland to run it here tho... we haven't seen much consistent running from the Browns.
We know the Brian Flores blitzes are coming... and we've got Dillon Dabriel making his first career start. This is obviously tough... I will say though, Dillon Gabriel was one of the best QBs in college football against the blitz last year. 11 TD 1 INT.
I think we're gonna see a lot of dinking and dunking from Gabriel in this game. We know the Vikings are gonna be running 2 high safeties all game. There should be throws to make underneath. He's not a QB that makes a ton of mistakes.
I think we'll see a super low scoring game (hence the 35.5 total).. although we usually see higher scoring games at Tottenham vs Wembley. I'm on Cleveland +4.5. With the injuries to the offensive line, I just don't know if the Vikings will get enough offense to cover this.
DOLPHINS @ PANTHERS - 1 PM
Carolina's defensive numbers actually look pretty good on the season.
But I think we all know these numbers are a little padded by the 30-0 Falcons win. If you take out that one game, this defense has been pretty bad. I will say though... that was actually the Panthers only home game. So the only time we've seen the Panthers at home, they played a great defensive game.
And hear me out... the Dolphins offense is the exact opposite. Their offense looked terrible in their two road games. They played well in their two home games. And that's not new btw... Tua's been much better at Hard Rock over the course of his career.
Remember, we're talking about a Dolphins offense that's got a smoked offensive line... and now, they just lost Tyreek Hill for the year.
And the Panthers might be getting back both their edge rushers. We don't see many football games where the Panthers defensive line might win the battles up front. But with the injured Dolphins offensive line, at home.. the Panthers defensive line might win these battles.
And the matchup gets even worse for Miami. Carolina basically lives in Cover 3. Zone coverage and 1H safety... They're 3rd in the NFL in cover 3 frequencies. Look at Tua's splits here.
And look at Tua's numbers specifically against Cover 3 so far this year.
I really think the Panthers can play a good defensive game again just like they did in the Atlanta game. The question is... do we trust this Carolina offense to score points?
I really thought this Dolphins defense would play well at home against the Jets. They didn't at all. The Jets offense kept shooting themselves in the foot... by no means was the Dolphins defense playing well.
Carolina's offense is terrible... don't get me wrong. And they're dealing with key injuries.
But so is Miami's defense. I keep waiting for this unit to come around and start playing well and we're just not seeing it.
But based on what we just saw the Jets do in Miami... who's to say Carolina can't move the ball a little in this game? I think the wrong team's favored. Carolina wins.
COWBOYS @ JETS - 1 PM
Last week was the Cowboys Super Bowl. They left it all out on the field. Are they just punting in this next one? It looks like they're gonna be missing 4 starters on the offensive line.
Not that I even think the Jets defense is great. In fact, I'm sure Dak Prescott is still able to make some throws. But last week was the best the Cowboys offense could possibly play. That was their best fastball.
Missing the entire offensive line, we're bound to see a letdown spot. And on the other side of the ball, let's not forget the Cowboys have arguably the worst defense in the NFL.
And remember, the final score doesn't tell the story last week. The Jets offense was moving the ball in that Dolphins game. We've now seen two Jets games with Justin Fields at QB... and the Jets have moved the ball really well in both of them.
I'm gonna keep this one short. Wrong team's favored here. I'm on Jets +2.5... I think the Jets should be laying 2/2.5.
RAIDERS @ COLTS - 1 PM
Man this Raiders offense... they opened up the season with a road win in New England. They haven't looked very good since.
The offensive line is terrible. They were getting blown off the ball in that Bears game. Geno Smith has thrown 6 interceptions in the last 3 games. This offense just doesn't look very good.
And on top of that, now they lose Kolton Miller and most likely Brock Bowers. Kolton Miller is by far, their best offensive lineman.
This Colts defensive front hasn't been excellent this year... but against this Raiders offensive line, they should win the battle on the LOS.
Now, if you're trying to take the Raiders in this one... you're looking right here. The Colts have struggled to defend the run so far this year... and the Raiders finally got Jeanty going last week. Here's the thing, if you watched that Raiders Bears game, you know that offensive line was getting smoked by the Bears defensive front. And that was a Bears defensive front that was missing Grady Jarrett.
On the other side of the ball, I will say that this is a Colts offense that wants to run the ball. They're 3rd in rushing frequency so far this year and the Raiders have actually been really good against the run so far this year.
And in my opinion, we do have to ask if teams are starting to get film together and formulate gameplans to stop this Colts offense. They just played their worst offensive game of the season last week against the Rams.
Daniel Jones wasn't as bad as this graphic looks... the 2 INTs are obviously making the passer rating numbers look worse. But he certainly didn't have the 1st reads open like we've seen. He had really ugly numbers from a clean pocket. Which could mean, the Rams just laid the blueprint on how to stop Steichen's offense.
The Raiders defensive front is completely healthy... and they really might be able to take the run away from the Colts. If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Colts offense slowed again.
If it wasn't for the Raiders offensive line, I would really take the +7 in this one. But I can't trust this offense... so the limited offense... plus the slow pace.
BRONCOS @ EAGLES - 1 PM
It's been since week 2 of last season.
This Broncos offense really doesn't look very good.
They were just put in the best situation an offense could possibly be put in last week. A home game where their defense absolutely dominated.. against the Cincinnati defense... and honestly, it didn't even look great.
This Eagles defense hasn't even played well. They're clearly not on the same level as the Super Bowl defense... but they've also played some tough offenses. The worst offense the Eagles have seen so far is probably Dallas.
Denver hasn't had much of a consistent rushing attack this year outside the Bengals game. They might be able to get it going a little bit here... but Philadelphia should be able to get Bo Nix into passing downs and come after him. He hasn't handled pressure well this year.
On the other side of the ball, I'm not thrilled with the idea of fading the Broncos defense.
But we saw Denver's defense struggle a little in the two road games. Now, the defense played well in the Chargers game for most of it... LAC came back and won at the end... but the Broncos defensive numbers look excellent at home against the Titans and Bengals... both times they went on the road, it didn't look all that great.
And specifically... it was the run game that was giving em problems. Jonathan Taylor rushed for 165 yards against this defense... Hampton and Najee Harris were running the ball on em a little as well.
We haven't seen Saquon Barkley have a big game on the ground yet this year. This could be a spot for him. I'm not thrilled about Jalen Hurts against the Broncos pass rush... but he's handled pressure pretty well so far this year.
Eagles -3.5
GIANTS @ SAINTS - 1 PM
Well Spencer Rattler finally got a healthy offensive line... for the first time in his NFL career. It lasted about 20 minutes. Guard Cesar Ruiz went down in the Buffalo game and he's out. Also, Trevor Penning is back on the injury report and he missed practice.
The good news is... Giants defense hasn't been very good this year.
And on top of that, I don't think Dexter Lawrence is gonna play in this game.
Are the Saints gonna be able to run the ball in this game? This Giants defense has shown us they can be vulnerable to the run. They might be missing both DTs and both safeties. We just saw the Saints running the ball a bit against a hobbled Bills defensive front?
Just to give you an idea of how awful the Giants run defense has been so far this year.
I suppose the question is on the other side of the ball. Are we buying the Giants as a decent offense now that they've made the QB change? Jaxson Dart played pretty well in the opener.
Now this will be his first career road start... but I gotta say, I'm not sure how rattled he's gonna be. Keep in mind, this dude is a 3 year starter in the SEC. Here are some of his starts. @ South Carolina, @ Florida, @ LSU twice, @ Alabama, @ Auburn, @ Georgia, @ Texas A&M. He's one of the most weathered QBs in recent College Football history. I'm not sure if the Superdome is that threatening.
Also... we have zero sample size for this... but Jaxson Dart performed well from a clean pocket against the Chargers. The Saints have the worst pass rush in the NFL.
That being said... as much as I like Jaxson Dart, I think the Giants offensive performance is getting a blown out of proportion a bit. They only averaged 4.4 YPP.
I really wanna bet the Saints here.
TEXANS @ RAVENS - 1 PM
You can never trust CJ Stroud and this Houston Texans offense on the road. This is a bottom 5 offense and he's been significantly worse on the road throughout his whole career.
Now I know the Ravens defense is a mess.
Here's the thing and I know this is crazy to say... I wouldn't be surprised if the Ravens defense actually plays a decent game here. We're gonna see guys getting the start looking to prove themselves. You'll probably see Jaire Alexander play a big role.. some younger guys that are gonna be looking to make a statement. How good do they need to be to make stops against the Texans offense on the road?
Maybe the lack of pass rush scares you... CJ Stroud has done some damage from a clean pocket and that's when he's most dangerous. But I still don't trust this offense at all.
On the other side of the ball, who knows what to expect from the Ravens offense? The Houston defense is official... it's also a unit I trust a little bit more at home in Houston, but regardless, this is a very good defense.
What does the Ravens offense look like with Cooper Rush at QB? Part of me is thinking, "there's no way the best offense in the NFL becomes terrible with the loss of one player"... but the other part of me is thinking, "is there any player in the NFL that impacts the point spread more than Lamar Jackson?". I think the answer is no.
I honestly think Baltimore can still move the ball in this game. Houston's defense hasn't been quite as elite against the run as we were expecting.
Harbaugh and Monken are very good at what they do. Remember, when Monken took over as OC, that's when we really saw this offense take a step forward. Before that, it was kinda just the Lamar Jackson freak athlete show. But Monken helped develop that into a complete powerhouse. DeMeco Ryans has no idea what these guys are about to do offensively. But Harbaugh and Monken know exactly what Ryans is gonna do. Load the box up. I think Harbaugh and Monken are gonna have a gameplan drawn up for this one. Now, it's probably not anything that can work long term. But for one game with the element of surprise?
I wanna bet the Ravens here.
TITANS @ CARDINALS - 4 PM
Well, I think we've seen enough to come out and say the Titans have the worst offense in the NFL so far this year.
They might be getting Spears back... which would definitely be a big help to Cam Ward. Unfortunately, we're still not gonna see JC Latham back at RT and we might not even see Calvin Ridley in this game.
Cam Ward just hasn't been very good. He's holding onto the football. He's making poor decisions. He absolutely looks like a rookie.
And if you're thinking "oh well now Cam Ward gets to play a bad defense". Yeah, the Cardinals secondary is definitely banged up... but remember, this is a brand new Cardinals defensive line this year and they've played well. They're generating pressure. Corner is a problem though.
This Cardinals defense is not getting run on. I know these numbers might be a little inflated based on the fact that they haven't seen great rushing attacks. But the Titans aren't a great rushing attack.
I'm sure we'll see the Titans offense come around at some point... and maybe this is the game where we finally see the Cardinals thin secondary get exploited. It's possible... they are really thin at corner. I just can't find anything on paper that would indicate this is the game that happens.
On the other side of the ball, this is where Tennessee might be able to compete. Although I gotta say... the Titans defense has been pretty disappointing so far this year.
The Titans defense should not be THIS bad. I know the offense hasn't done them any favors... but there's talent on this defense.
Now the Titans defense did look significantly better in their road games. They got completely lit up in their two home games... those also happen to be the two best offenses they've seen.
BUCCANEERS @ SEAHAWKS - 4 PM
On paper, the Seattle defense has been significantly better than the Tampa Bay offense so far this year.
We've got key injuries to both units though.
Baker has good numbers under pressure. He's struggled against the blitz so far this year but the Seahawks don't blitz much at all.
And these are the types of games where we see Baker Mayfield do his thing. Since joining the Bucs, Baker Mayfield is 11-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Seahawks also run a ton of zone coverage... ton of 2H safety looks and Baker cookes against 2H safeties. One of the only QBs in the NFL that can still throw the ball downfield against 2H shell.
On the other side of the ball, we know Seattle's gonna struggle to run the ball... because the Bucs defensive front 7 is healthy. When Todd Bowles has his front 7 healthy, Tampa has the best run defense in the NFL.
We're talking about Sam Darnold against Todd Bowles blitz packages... most likely without run support.
But... just like Baker Mayfield, on paper, Sam Darnold should have success throwing the ball on this Bucs defense.
Bucs are also gonna be missing Jamel Dean.
So even though I don't expect either QB to have run support, there should be opportunities for both QBs to make throws in this game. Which QB do you trust more? I lean towards Baker Mayfield in that department... and at +3.5? I had to take it.
Given the pace, I wouldn't be mad at an over either considering I think both QBs can have success throwing the ball. I just dk if they're going to stay committed to the run and keep trying it.
LIONS @ BENGALS - 4 PM
Well I'm not sure where the stops are coming from on this side.
Both times the Lions saw bad defenses, they absolutely smoked em.
Cincinnati has really struggled with the run the last few games. We know Detroit's coming into this game looking to run the ball.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I think the Bengals are better than their numbers show. The Bengals defense is bad.. the Bengals offense can still be ok with Browning.
Remember, in 2023 when Burrow got injured, the Bengals were 5-5. Jake Browning took over at QB and they went 4-3 to finish out the year and almost made the playoffs. The Bengals had better offensive numbers with Browning than Burrow that year.
And Jake Browning was one of the best QBs in the NFL against man coverage that year. He was carving man coverage up. Detroit runs man coverage... like Denver does.
Is this Bengals team just not the same as they were two years ago? T he IOL is definitely worse. The superstar WRs created zero separation against Denver.
It doesn't make sense to me how this team with Jake Browning could look one way... and then two years later with a pretty similar offense, be completely terrible. So I guess I'll say under. Detroit's been running a super slow pace recently... last time they were on the road outdoors against Baltimore, they were purposely moving slowly.
COMMANDERS @ CHARGERS - 4 PM
Jayden Daniels is back... but this offense still isn't completely healthy.
But neither is the Chargers defense. They're still missing two of their best players on this side of the ball.
Now despite the injuries, the Chargers defense has held up. In fact, efficiency wise, this might be the best defense in the NFL on paper so far this year.
You do have to question the opponents though... since suffering those injuries, they played the Broncos and the Giants. Those are not exactly two powerhouse offenses. And they probably shoulda lost both these games. They did lose to the Giants and the Broncos had that game in hand the entire time and blew it. So even though, it seems like the Chargers defense has held up without Mack and Perryman, I have my concerns.
So do we think the Commanders offense is the one to break this open? It's tough to say because the last game we saw Jayden Daniels play was an ugly one. At the time, we were like "oh well this Green Bay defense is elite". And I think it is... but I just watch Dak Prescott decimate that defense.
So is there a chance Washington can run the ball in this game? I think there might be. Definitely a good sign that the Commanders seem to be getting it going on the ground. They've run the ball efficiently in their last two games. Now, in the Raiders game, they had a very serious scheduling advantage that was almost unfair. But the Raiders have a strong run defense so that's solid. And then last week, they got beat but it wasn't the offense. They were running the ball on Atlanta.
And I know you're probably thinking "but Kyle the Chargers have a good run defense"... well yeah it's been decent so far. But what team have they played that can run the ball?
On the other side of the ball, you guys know I'm not big on the Washington defense... but the Chargers offense hasn't looked all that great.
This Chargers offensive line is not in good shape right now and they're flat out getting beat on the LOS.
I don't think Washington's run defense is very good... but let's give them some credit. They've done a pretty good job this year. The Chargers offensive line is not generating push right now.
And with the Chargers missing both OT's, are we sure they can protect Justin Herbert? Herbert's a QB that holds onto the ball. He hasn't handled pressure very well this year.
I'm not really big on the Chargers right now... Washington's too uncertain for me to place a bet but if I can get a flat 3, I wouldn't hate the Commanders.
PATRIOTS @ BILLS - 8 PM
The Patriots offense looks really good. The problem is... they have no run game at all and that's exactly how you beat this Bills team.
Drake Maye truly has been great. The Patriots have one of the most explosive passing attacks in the NFL right now that nobody's talking about.
But if you think you're going into Buffalo without run support... and you're gonna drop back to pass 40 times against this pass rush and compete. You might be living in a fantasy world. Bills might be getting Ed Oliver and Matt Milano back as well... although Dorian Williams is out.
And that's the strength of the New England team... the defense hasn't looked good at all.
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