NFL WEEK 5 MONDAY

Chiefs @ Jaguars - 8:15 PM

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Chiefs picked up a huge win last week. This was pretty much a battle to see which of these elite teams is going to be in serious trouble. Chiefs move to 2-2... Ravens drop to 1-3 and then went on to drop to 1-4. That makes back to back wins for the Chiefs.

Now they go on the road to see a Jacksonville defense that's been lights out. Yes, you heard that correctly. On paper so far this year, the Jags have had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

This Jags defense is tough to figure out. Remember, they've got a new DC this year. Ryan Nielsen was running a ton of man coverage last year... now Campanile takes over and he's made it clear that we're gonna see a complete shift over to a zone-heavy defense.

So far, they've done exactly that. Alotta zone coverage... a lotta 2H safeties... a lotta cover 6. They actually lead the NFL in cover 6 frequency. There might not be many deep shot opportunities for Mahomes in this one. But you know the deal with cover 6... one of the flats is left wide open... also those little Travis Kelce 5 yard underneath throws should be there all night.

When you run a defense like that, you're basically saying "you're not gonna hit us with big plays. If you wanna score on us, you're gonna have to dink and dunk your way down the field. We're betting you're gonna make a mistake before you're able to get down and score". Now that works against a lot of QBs in the NFL... in fact, that's becoming a really popular defense in the NFL the past few years. I think we can all agree though... if there's one QB on planet earth that you would trust to dink and dunk their way down the field for 48 minutes, it's Patrick Mahomes.

Up to this point, Jacksonville hasn't seen the best QBs. They played Bryce Young, Jake Browning (who beat them), CJ Stroud and Brock Purdy.

If you're thinking "oh well Kyle, Brock Purdy is pretty good", I agree. He is. Well San Francisco was moving the ball extremely well in that game. The 49ers offense was more efficient than the Jaguars offense was. The difference in that game was 4 turnovers to 0.

The 49ers had the ball at midfield with a chance to win? This is a great road win, but if you consider the turnover battles was 4-0, and you still almost lost? It becomes less impressive.

Jacksonville hasn't had much of a pass rush. Mahomes should have time to work. Look at his numbers with a clean pocket. Efficient, protects the ball, throws underneath. It's almost like Mahomes is the perfect QB to give Jacksonville's defense problems. One thing to consider when we're looking at these numbers... Jacksonville's coaching staff is aware of this.

You add in the fact that Travon Walker may not play, I like Kansas City to move the ball in this one.

On the other side of the ball, this is what you're looking at if you're backing Jacksonville. Can the Chiefs keep the Jags run game in check?

Now Jacksonville might be guilty of padding these rushing stats a big against some bad defenses. The only time they saw a good defense was Houston... and the couldn't run the ball at all in that game.

Now I know you might be thinking "well Kyle, the Chiefs don't have a good run defense". But here's the thing... I think the Chiefs run defense is way better than these numbers show.

If you take a closer look at the Chiefs games, you'll see that the run defense numbers look bad in the last two games. But if you remember, the Giants were ripping off runs with Skattebo in the 2nd half when they were down double digits. And Justice Hill ripped off a 71 yard TD run in the Ravens game when they were down 4 TDs.

You gotta think Spags knows Jacksonville needs to run the ball in this game. Trevor Lawrence really hasn't been efficient at all. He's played some bad defenses and hasn't seen much pressure... and he still isn't putting up efficient passing numbers.

Trevor Lawrence has really struggled with pressure. I don't think the Jags passing attack poses much of a threat.

Chiefs at a flat 3.