NFL Week 4 Sunday
- Kyle Kirms
- Sep 21
- 16 min read
COLTS @ TITANS 1 PM EST
We know the story so far... Cam Ward has been under siege.
Now the injury at RT could be part of that... and Zeitler missing practice is concerning... but it also could be due to the fact that they played two of the best defenses in the NFL to start the season.
Good news is... you've got a home game against a defensive front that hasn't been creating much pressure so far this year.
Now by no means is this Colts defensive line bad... they've definitely got talent.
But they haven't looked that great so far... they've been getting run on a bit too. The Colts are 2-0... it's certainly not because their defense has played great.
So we might see a couple firsts for Cam Ward in this game... for the first time, he might have run support... and for the first time, he might have clean pockets to throw from. This might be Cam Ward's first real opportunity to play a good game.
On the other side of the ball, the question is basically "how real are these numbers?" It's tough to draw conclusions after two games... but it does make sense to an extent. I think alotta people believed this Colts offense was a QB away from being pretty good.
The Colts have run the ball pretty well... they haven't absolutely steamrolled teams but they've given Daniel Jones pretty consistent run support.
And on top of that... they're getting the ball out of Daniel Jones hands quickly. So Steichen is really putting Daniel Jones in some really low-risk situations. Run the ball... get the ball out of his hands fast.
This is a road division game though... and now we've got 2 games of film on this offense.
The injuries are a bit concerning... but I don't necessarily see the Colts as an offense that would exploit the sidelines like that.
Market hates this one... I'm on the Titans. I think they win their first game. The Titans have been terrible... but these two teams always play close games. The Colts haven't beaten the Titans by more than 1 possession since 2020.
FALCONS @ PANTHERS 1 PM EST
Well Penix wasn't great last week... but Atlanta still picked up the win and Falcons fans gotta love that they got the run game going on the road against a tough defensive front like Minnesota.
I'm still not really sold on the Falcons offensive line this year. Remember, Drew Dalman is on the Bears now and Kaleb McGarry is out for the season. So this offensive line isn't quite the same as it was last year... but to see them running the ball on Minnesota is definitely a good sign.
Now you might think... no shot Carolina can stop the Falcons run game... and honestly, maybe they can't. But we do wanna point out that the Panthers actually did a hell of a job last week against the Cardinals up front.
Remember, when Carolina has Derrick Brown healthy on the defensive line, they're a much more respectable unit. He was injured last year... but in 2023 when he was healthy, when Atlanta went on the road to Carolina, they couldn't run the ball at all. In fact, they lost the game 9-7.
So I wouldn't be surprised if Bijan Robinson struggles to get going in this one. Derrick Brown is a problem in the middle. But where the Falcons should be in good shape, is the passing attack. Carolina hasn't shown much of a pass rush yet this year... a little bit in the Arizona game but not a ton. Michael Penix has been very efficient when given a clean pocket so far this year.
Penix numbers don't look good on the year... part of the problem is Atlanta has struggled to keep in clean in the pocket. He should have some opportunities to make throws in this one.
On the other side of the ball, Bryce Young is finally seeing a defense that isn't a terrible matchup for him. The Falcons have shown a lot of 1H safety looks so far this season. But they're missing AJ Terrell. This might force Atlanta into some more zone-heavy 2H looks... which Bryce Young struggles against, but it might not be what they want to do defensively.
This might open up some opportunities for the Panthers to run the ball. If you look at the numbers so far this year, you might think there's no way the Panthers can run on this defense.
They weren't able to consistently run the ball in either of the first two games... but they finally get a home game... the Falcons might have to make some adjustments to account for their best cover corner being out. I think we're gonna see the Panthers run the ball. The problem is... Bryce Young just doesn't seem to have any chemistry with his WRs and he's just really struggling right now.
So despite me thinking the Falcons defense is a bit vulnerable... despite it being a division home underdog... I still can't take Carolina. And I really dk what to do with the total either because these two teams have basically run exact opposite paces so far this season.
I'd still lean Falcons. How about Michael Penix Jr. Over 18.5 Completions (-130)?
RAIDERS @ COMMANDERS 1 PM EST
Obviously the lead story in this one is Jayden Daniels being ruled out. Marcus Mariota is going to be starting this one.
Obviously this is a huge loss... Washington's offense actually looked alright in the two Mariota starts last year... There's a disclaimer though. They played Carolina and Dallas... two bad defenses.
We don't know for sure how good this Raiders defense is yet. So far, it would seem like this year's Raiders defense is better than last year's Carolina and Dallas defenses. They're off to a strong start.
What's concerning here... is I just don't think we can count on Washington to give Mariota any run support. What's the one thing you need if you're rocking with a backup QB? A run game... take pressure off him. The Raiders were pretty solid against the run last year... they brought back the same DC... and they're picking up right where they left off.
Washington ran the ball really well in the opener against the Giants... but against this Raiders defense without the added element of Daniels, I'd have to think they struggle to run the ball here.
On the other side, this is where Washington might be in decent shape here. Geno Smith has had moments... but he's also had... other moments. These numbers don't tell the whole story... he hasn't been THIS bad. But he hasn't been excellent either.
What worries me for the Raiders offense... is they don't run the ball. I'm not even sure if they can run the ball.
And this Washington defense... there's a pretty clear-cut blueprint on how to beat them. Run the ball! Are the Raiders even capable of it? If you're thinking "well anybody can run the ball on Washington"... no I can assure you that's not true. See the Giants in Week 1 for reference. I'm not sure if the Raiders are the offense that can take advantage of where Washington's defense is weak.
We have not seen the Raiders show us a successful rushing attack yet this season.
This Washington defense is built to defend a pass-first offense. They have edge rushers and a secondary and they're pretty much healthy.
So after all that, you're probably thinking "well Kyle if you like the matchup for both defenses... why not take an under?". It's tough to consider an under at a low number like 43.5 with two fast-paced teams.
I guess it would be Washington at under a FG. This game is tough. Gimme Commanders -2.5 if available. KEEP IN MIND THIS IS A TERRIBLE SPOT FOR THE RAIDERS... COMING OFF MNF AGAINST A WASHINGTON TEAM COMING OFF TNF.
PACKERS @ BROWNS 1 PM EST
The main question in this one is right here. Now, we don't wanna take Jordan Love's numbers under pressure too seriously. We're talking about 22 dropbacks in two games where they were leading comfortably. There's no reason to force anything... throw the ball away. So I really don't care about these numbers. What I do care about is the Cleveland pass rush. Jordan Love has been able to sit back... get comfortable in the pocket... hold onto the ball without issues. Can this Cleveland pass rush disrupt him?
So far, the Browns have played two very talented QBs and they were able to give both of them problems. I know the final score doesn't really reflect it in the Baltimore game but that wasn't Lamar Jackson's strongest performance at all.
The Packers pass protection has looked elite so far this year... but you could say they haven't been tested. We don't know if Detroit's gonna have a pass rush this year... it wasn't good last year. Washington doesn't have an elite defensive front. So you could say that this Green Bay's offensive line has had easy competition in terms of pass rush.
In the Washington game, they were able to run the ball without issues. It makes sense... considering the Commanders might have one of the worst run defenses in the NFL this season. Well so far... nobody's ran the ball on Cleveland. The Ravens couldn't even run the ball on Cleveland in Baltimore.
So far this season... we've seen Jordan Love with run support... and with clean pockets to throw from. Are we gonna see that on the road against this Browns defense? Remember, Cleveland's defense the last couple years has had a pretty clear identity. Elite pass rush... solid secondary... but they struggled to stop the run at times. So teams were able to neutralize the pass rush by running the ball. Well they addressed that in the 1st two rounds of the NFL draft. If the Browns have a run defense this year, this could be a problem.
The issue for Cleveland is on the other side of the ball. This offense is just awful... and they're matched up against a Packers defense that's looklng elite so far this year.
Green Bay's pass rush with Parsons and Gary is looking nuts... and Joe Flacco just can't operate under pressure at this age.
Can we count on Cleveland giving him any run support? Based on what we've seen from the Packers defense, I'd say no.
Now Cleveland was running the ball efficiently last week in Baltimore... which is a good sign. But keep in mind, they were down double digits most of that game... and this may be a case of the Ravens sitting in soft coverage.
Betting this game just comes down to whether or not we're buying into what we've seen from Green Bay so far this year. Obviously, they have looked elite... but laying more than a TD on the road is serious work. Let's not forget... last year, through two games, the Saints were 2-0 with two blowout wins... and they were laying 3 to the Eagles in Week 3.
Fading the overreaction and add on the fact that this could be a bit of a sleepy spot for the Packers.... a road non-conference game sandwiched in between 3 huge NFC games.
It would only be Browns for me... gimme the +7.5.
BENGALS @ VIKINGS 1 PM EST
Well obviously the lead story here... we've got two backup QBs. Now I think we can all agree when I say that we trust Jake Browning far more than Carson Wentz. I don't believe that's a hot take.
Here's the problem for Browning... the Brian Flores Vikings pass rush... the nightmare defense for QBs. It seems to be back. They're looking like they might be a top 3 pass rush in the NFL again. Jake Browning is going to be in quite the situation here.
And unlike Carson Wentz, who might have some run support in this game... Cincinnati doesn't seem to have any run support what-so-ever. So even though I like Jake Browning, he may be in prison here.
On top of that, we might see the healthiest version of this Vikings defense we've seen all year. Van Ginkel is practicing without limitations. Hitman Harry is also practicing. It's looking like they're both going to play in this game. So yeah... unfortunately, I don't have a ton of faith in my guy, Jake Browning here.
On the other side... trying to figure out what's going to happen here is a head-scratcher. We've got Carson Wentz starting at QB... Ryan Kelly is still out at C... but it's looking like Christian Darrisaw might make his season debut. He participated in a full practice towards the end of the week.
Minnesota might be able to run the ball here. Missing Ryan Kelly is gonna hurt... but if Darrisaw is back... it's not like Cincinnati's defensive front is scaring anybody. We saw what happened last week.
On top of running the ball, Wentz might be in a position to make some throws. Yes, he doesn't have the escapability that JJ McCarthy has... but this Bengals secondary is banged up.
It's gotta be Vikings here. I feel like we're letting what happened last week cloud our judgment on this one. Vikings -3.
STEELERS @ PATRIOTS 1 PM EST
This is the lead story right here... is this for real? This can't be real... and to make matters worse, this defense is not healthy.
And let's not sleep on this Patriots offense. Remember, this team invested all of their offseason resources into surrounding Drake Maye with talent on the offensive side of the ball. They had a really ugly looking opener against the Raiders and we all kinda wrote em off. Well they bounced back in a major way with a huge road win. And the offense looked excellent.
This is the classic case of... how much do we move our needles based on what we've seen so far this year? Because if we're pricing this game utilizing the Steelers defense we've seen so far in 2025... then we're pricing Pittsburgh as maybe the worst defense in the NFL. And let's no act like they've played the Eagles and Ravens... they played Justin Fields and Sam Darnold.
Not enough of a sample size to look at this data... but on top of that, the Steelers have run a lot of man coverage and 1H safety looks. Drake Maye's got excellent numbers so far this year in those categories. Again, we're talking about such a small sample size... especially since last year he actually struggled against 1H safety looks.
Look... do I think the Steelers defense is going to be this bad all year? No... but I do think New England's offense is significantly better than last year's. So if you're putting a gun to my head right now and asking me if I think the Patriots are gonna put points up in this game, I'm saying yes... but I very seriously doubt it's going to be anything like we saw last week.
On the other side of the ball, this is where it might be a decent matchup for the Steelers. It looks like Pittsburgh is gonna be a pass first offense this year... which is surprising. I know they brought in Rodgers but I honestly though they were gonna stick to the run, play defense and use Rodgers as more of a game manager... but they've been throwing it so far.
The reason I said it might be a good matchup is New England's dealing with injuries in the secondary and they've really struggled to defend the pass so far this year. They've generated a decent amount of pressure, which is good against Rodgers... but they can't seem to cover anybody.
Christian Gonzalez has been practicing... if he plays, does that immediately solve the Patriots problems?
RAMS @ EAGLES 1 PM EST
Do we think Matt Stafford can move the ball on this Eagles defense? I know the season long numbers don't look excellent but keep in mind, that's pretty much just the 1st half vs Dallas. Take out that half and this defense has been pretty excellent.
I gotta say though... I think Stafford can move the chains on this team. Remember, these two teams just played in the division round of the playoffs. And the Eagles defense last year... the 2nd half of the season, it was unbeatable. Stafford was moving the ball in Philly... that game literally came down to the wire. The Rams had the ball on the Eagles 22 with 1 minute left.
Matt Stafford is kind of a tough matchup for the Eagles defense. The Eagles don't have an elite pass rush. It's a good pass rush... but that's not the strength of this defense. It was the same last year. And Matt Stafford is just a God from a clean pocket... and he gets the ball out quickly.
Missing Steve Avila on the offensive line for another week definitely hurts but that doesn't change my opinion on that. I like Stafford to move the football in this game... just like he did in this same building, in the playoffs, in the snow.
Honestly, the Rams might be able to run the ball a bit in this game also. They couldn't get the run going against Houston... but Houston might have the best defense in the NFL. We saw them running the ball against the Titans.
Philadelphia hasn't looked all that stout against the run. Dallas and Kansas City? Those aren't elite rushing attacks.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I just don't know if I trust the Rams defense to make stops. I like the Rams defense... but Philadelphia is just so difficult to get off the field. Between Barkley, the tush push, Hurts using his legs... it's just so difficult to get this offense off the field. The Rams defense has been elite so far this year... but neither of these offenses belong in the same conversation as the Eagles offense.
Look... the Eagles are gonna move the ball in this game. I'd be surprised if the Rams defense shows out. Maybe they can pull a few stops out of their hat. Sirianni is always down to give you a dumb turnover on downs. But I really think the Rams are gonna move the ball right back... and you add in the fact that this is gonna be the slowest game of all time...
This just feels like a FG game to me. I'm trusting McVay and taking the 3.5.
TEXANS @ JAGAURS 1 PM EST
So Houston basically owns Jacksonville.
Especially in this building.
As far as this year's matchup, the Jags defensive numbers on the year actually look strong through 2 games while the Texans offense has been borderline embarrassing.
Those Jags defensive numbers might be fool's gold though... they played the opener against Carolina and shut them down... but then they followed it up by getting pieced up by Jake Browning in Week 2.
An interesting spot to look in this one is right here. You glance at the production we've seen so far... and you might think "there's no way Houston can run the ball in this game". But keep in mind... Houston has played the Rams and Bucs... two teams I expect to have very strong run defenses this year. And the Jags have played Carolina and Cincinnati... two teams that can't really run the ball.
If Jake Andrews plays for Houston, I really think we can count on the Texans getting Nick Chubb and Woody Marks going on the ground in this one. Getting Christian Kirk on the field would be cool also... but I'm really hoping to see Jake Andrews starting at C in this one. He didn't play in the MNF game and he was definitely missed.
If the Texans can't run the ball in this game, I'm definitely gonna be worried. The new Jags DC has come out and said they're gonna be running zone coverage.. alotta 2H safety looks. Bryce Young was a QB that really struggled against zone coverage last year which was why I liked the Jags so much in the opener. Wanna know who was terrible against zone coverage last year? CJ Stroud. 4 TD 10 INT last season against zone coverage.
Now so far this year, he's actually been better against zone coverage... but we're only talking about 2 games. 64 dropbacks... not really enough of a sample size to draw conclusions.
On the other side of the ball, this is where I like the Texans. I truly believe this is one of the best defenses in the NFL. Jacksonville has run the shit out of the ball so far this year... I really can't see that happening in this one against Houston. Carolina and Cincinnati aren't exactly units we consider to be defensive juggernauts.
I know this is concerning... Tampa put up a monster box score on the ground last week. But if you watched that game, you know that the Bucs went down the field twice early on the scripted plays and then really couldn't move the football after that. They didn't score another points until there was 20 seconds left in the game.
So I don't think we'll see this Jacksonville run game continue here... and as far as Trevor Lawrence, he doesn't have the greatest history against this defense.
And he really hasn't played well this year. Struggling to put up efficient passing numbers against Carolina and Cincinnati is concerning. It doesn't give me a ton of hope on this side of the ball for Jacksonville.
This Houston team is already in a must-win situation looking at a possible 0-3 start. The defense should dominate. I'm on Houston +2.5.
SAINTS @ SEAHAWKS 4 PM EST
First thing that jumps out in this one is that fact that both of these teams are playing incredibly fast so far this season. The Saints have actually been the fastest paced team in the NFL so far.
Obviously, when we're talking about the Saints offense, the first thing we're looking at is the offensive line. Are they able to give Spencer Rattler a prayer. He's spent most of his career running for his life. The bad news... Saints got hit with another injury on the offensive line and this was already an injured unit. The good news is... I actually think they might be in better shape this week because it looks like Trevor Penning has a chance of coming back for this one... and Dillon Radunz, the guy that got injured last week, was only starting in Penning's spot. So the Saints might have a healthy offensive line for the first time this season.
Now they're going to have their hands full against this Seahawks defensive line. Seattle secretly has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. They've put heavy pressure on the QB in back to back weeks. Brock Purdy was able to escape the pressure and make some throws... Rodgers really wasn't.
I gotta say... I'm a bit worried about the Seahawks secondary. Riq Woolen got beat twice on huge plays to lose the opener against the 49ers. They've got talent back there... but they're not coming home from Pittsburgh healthy. Neither Julian Love or Devon Witherspoon have practiced this week yet. Witherspoon didn't play in Pittsburgh last week. Those are the best two DBs on this team. So the Saints with a healthier offensive line... coming home off a huge win... against a vulnerable Seahawks secondary. Maybe Rattler can complete some passes in this game.
On the other side of the ball, we've got concerns about the Saints defense without a doubt... but I honestly have concerns about the Seattle offense as well. I know the Seahawks have some efficient looking offensive numbers on the year... but I'm not gonna let a good game in Pittsburgh erase what I saw in the opener against San Francisco.
SAINTS UP... GIMME THE +7.5.
BRONCOS @ CHARGERS 8 PM EST
This C
CHIEFS @ GIANTS 8 PM EST
This Chiefs offense just doesn't seem to have it right now.
Success rate still looks solid... they can still move the chains and sustain drives. But they just have no weapons. There's almost zero threat of explosive plays right now.
Mahomes has not looked great. Now Mahomes didn't play all that well last year either... KC still found a way to win games and they ended up in the Super Bowl. So by no means am I saying some "hot take" nonsense like "The window has passed!" or anything like that. I'm just simply pointing out that he hasn't played well.
Now I know this is definitely as concern here for the Giants.
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