NFL Week 4 Monday

JETS @ DOLPHINS - 7:15 PM

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Jets haven't had a ton of success with this team.

It actually gets even worse if you isolate it to just the road games in Miami.

Now based on the full season numbers, you'd think the Jets should have no problems moving the ball on this Dolphins defense.

But here's the thing... I still think this Dolphins defense is going to be pretty good this year. This was a top 10 defense last year... they actually added pieces and were missing key pieces with injuries. If you look at their games so far... they played the Colts whose offense has looked unstoppable. They played the Patriots who are averaging like 6.5 YPP. And they played the Bills in Buffalo.

So I know a lotta people are looking at the season long numbers... they're looking at the Jets offense coming into this one healthy.

And yes, the Dolphins defense is dealing with injuries. Storm Duck is still out as well. The Dolphins have experienced pieces in the secondary that aren't pictured here. Rasul Douglas is on this team.

I have to ask... are we sure this Jets offense is good? It seems like there's a lot of stock being put into 1 data point... which was a home game with a brand new coaching staff and QB... no film was available on this. Against a Steelers secondary that was basically brand new. So we're just cool pricing the Jets out as a great passing attack now with Justin Fields... based off that one game?

And let's take a closer look at that one game... Justin Fields did all of his damage from a clean pocket. It didn't look that great when he saw pressure. Look how long he was holding onto the football.

Are we sure the Jets are going to give him time to throw in this game? Wanna know who the most pressured QB in the NFL is the last 2 weeks? Tyrod Taylor. And Tyrod Taylor is a guy that gets the ball out quickly.. Justin Fields is not.

I think there's a chance the Jets offense looks terrible in this game. On the other side of the ball, this is where I'm more inclined to hear you out if you're backing the Jets.

I do like that this game's at home... Tua's always been much better at home at Hard Rock.

Now if you're betting the Jets, you're probably looking right here. This Dolphins offensive line is still cooked. This isn't new though.. these guys have barely played this season.

The Jets defense is also missing key pieces though... specifically in the front 7. And these actually are pretty new. Quincy Williams and McCrary-Ball were both injured last week in the Bucs game. So this Jets defense is hobbled.

We haven't seen much of a run game from Miami so far this year. When they have handed the ball off, it's been efficient though. With the Jets front 7 missing pieces, I think the Dolphins will have some success running the ball in this game.

As far as Tua, I know he hasn't been great. He's played well against the Jets at home... I know the Jets have a great secondary but this defense hasn't really been that good this year.

I honestly think this game should be a strong 3... maybe even a 3.5. Clearly there are buyers on the Jets at 3, though. I bet Miami -2.5.

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BENGALS @ BRONCOS - 8:15 PM

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Last week, I picked Minnesota -3 in this game and the specific reason for it... was Jake Browning against blitz packages and constant pressure.

I like Jake Browning... I think he's one of the best backup QBs in the NFL. But now he's going on the road again... and he's going to see another elite pass rush and a ton of blitz packages.

Denver's defense had that hiccup against the Colts... but they shoulda won that game anyway and other than that, the defense has looked pretty close to what we expected.

The Broncos defense is coming into this one healthy.

Now here's why I think Cincinnati can score points in this game. If you're looking for a reason to trust the Bengals offense... you could say they just saw a blitz heavy, elite pass rush last week. So Browning might be a bit more prepared for it.

In addition to that... Brian Flores lives in zone coverage. Blitz and run cover 2... that's what Brian Flores has always done and will always do. Denver blitzes... but they run a lot of man coverage. Not only does Jake Browning have much better numbers against man coverage (keep in mind that's only 5 dropbacks). But he was way better against man coverage in 2023 also. He had a 137.9 passer rating against man coverage in 2023.

On the other side of the ball, both of these units look pretty terrible.

Bo Nix under pressure has been the worst thing ever.

The Broncos actually have decent rushing numbers on the year in terms of raw data... but the success rate indicates that those numbers are fraudulent.

But the Bengals defense... can we trust them to stop anything?

Overall, I think we can count on the Broncos to score some points for the simple fact that they're coming off back to back road losses... now they're back at home against a bad defense. Just a perfect get right spot for this offense. Combine that with the fact that we might see a quicker pace?

OVER 43.5 AND BENGALS +8.5.