NFL Week 3 Thursday

DOLPHINS @ BILLS - 8:15 PM

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So obviously, that's a tough loss to take last week for Miami. A home game against the Patriots... coming off an embarrassing loss to the Colts to open it up. Miami needed this one man. I will say.. there were some positive takeaways. First one being... the passing attack showed up.

With all the concussions and the injuries... after that opener against Indianapolis, where Tua was so bad, we were starting to wonder if Tua can even do it anymore. Well, he was pretty good in that New England game. Was it an absolutely spectacular performance? No... but it was miles better than what we saw against the Colts in the opener.

So which Tua shows up in this one? Cuz we've got a tough road game here... on the road in Buffalo. Honestly, there's two ways to look at it... on one hand, you can say "Miami's getting crushed by the Colts then losing at home to the Patriots? They're going to get smoked by Buffalo". On the other hand, you can look at this game as an opportunity. The Dolphins win this game... and their season's right back on track. They're only a game out of Buffalo with a head to head win.

If Miami pulls this one off, all of the sudden, you've got extended rest before a home game against the Jets... then Carolina. Win this game and 3-2 with a win over the Bills in Buffalo in your pocket is 100% in the cards. This is the Super Bowl right here for Miami.

Meanwhile, for Buffalo... you could argue that this is the least important game of the season. You open up on prime time SNF against the Baltimore Ravens... then you immediately go to MetLife... road division game in a building you've had problems in. Now, it's a short week... at home as a double digit favorite. All I'm saying is Miami's season is on the line and Buffalo's sitting pretty on a short week.

Remember, the last time these two teams played was in this same building... very similar rosters... the Bills were only laying 6. That was a tie game with a minute left. Remember, this is not December Buffalo.... this is September Buffalo.

So what has changed since this week 9 game to swing the market so dramatically? Why are the Bills laying double digits in this one when the Dolphins almost beat em outright in this building just a few months ago? Well there are answers to these questions. The first one being this offensive line is a complete shell of what it was last year. Not only did they lose Robert Jones and Terron Armstead... but they're also smoked with injuries.

The Bills defense is missing pieces also but that defensive line is still going to be a problem for the Dolphins.

I suppose the good news could be... the way the McDaniel calls that offense... it definitely takes some pressure off the offensive line. The ball is out of Tua's hands quickly. The run game is not downhill... there's a lot of moving pieces... a lot of misdirection. So maybe you could say the Dolphins are an offense that can operate with an injured offensive line. They were moving the ball here in Week 9 last year. But of the 5 offensive linemen that played in that game for Miami, 4 of them are not playing in this game.

It's hard to picture Miami moving the ball like that again in this game... especially after we saw the Bills defense bounce back in a major way. Remember, the Bills defense looked awful in the opener... then they went on the road against a Jets offense that had just lit the Steelers up. And if you're thinking "well Kyle Justin Fields got hurt in that game", the score was 30-3 when he got injured. They were crushing em.

I really don't see the Dolphins moving the ball much in this game. It should be a struggle. On the other side of the ball though, believe it or not, I think the Dolphins could play a strong defensive game. I know looking at this graphic, you're thinking how could I possibly say that?

That week 1 game... on the road @ Indy. Nobody had any idea what Shane Steichen was about to do offensively.... Daniel Jones wins the QB job last minute... nobody had any idea what they were about to come out and do. So the Colts completely had the element of surprise here. Not to mention... we just saw that same Colts offense moving the ball up and down the field effortlessly against Denver's defense... which is a defense we all perceive to be good.

Last week was not a good showing... but I rewatched that game and McDaniels really killed it. There were some really well-designed plays in there. I also think Week 1 wasn't the best representation of the Patriots offense. That's gonna be a much better offense than we saw last year.

I still think this is gonna be a good defense this year. Remember, this was a top 10 defense last year. Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb didn't play pretty much the whole season. They're both back and healthy. They also added Matthew Judon, Jack Jones, Minkah Fitzpatrick. I believe the Dolphins will be a top 10 defense again this year. We haven't seen it yet... but I wouldn't be surprised if Buffalo's offense is struggling to move the ball a little in this one.

Look, I can't take the points. I think Tua's gonna be in prison in this game behind that offensive line... so as far as a side, it would be Buffalo -11.5. I see the total's been bet up to 50.5 on a couple rec books. I'm eyeing up an under at 50.5.