NFL Week 17 Saturday
- Kyle Kirms
- Dec 27, 2025
- 3 min read
TEXANS @ CHARGERS - 4:30 PM
Now we got some football games. Texans clinch a playoff spot with a win or a tie here. Both Houston and LAC are alive in their division races too. Chargers control their destiny in the AFC West.
Tough matchup for CJ Stroud.
Perryman suspended two games which is huge.
The Chargers run defense was considerably worse when Perryman was injured earlier in the season (probably need to point out that Khalil Mack was also injured).
So do we think Houston can run the ball? Texans offensive line might be a bit of a concern.
You might think "oh well it's just an offensive lineman"... well this is kinda crazy.
Houston hasn't shown us much on the ground. They were able to run the ball a bit against Arizona and Buffalo... so it's not impossible.
The problem is... I don't like this matchup for Stroud. You've got a Chargers pass rush that generates pressure without sending extra rushers, which is always tough for Stroud. Possibly missing both OT's against Mack and Tuipulotu?
What else do the Chargers do defensively? Alotta Cover 3... alotta Cover 4... CJ Stroud doesn't have the nicest looking splits against zone coverage this year.
It's also a road game. It's not just this year... CJ Stroud's been much more reliable at home in Houston his entire career.
Now CJ Stroud is coming off back to back efficient games. So maybe he's coming around. Also... it is a home Chargers game at SoFi. It's not exactly a harsh road environment.
On the other side of the ball, I might like the matchup for Justin Herbert even less than Stroud.
We talked about the Houston offensive line... what about the Chargers offensive line?
Houston's a little thin at DT but how are the Chargers OT's gonna handle Hunter and Anderson? Anderson and Hunter are 2nd and 5th in the NFL in pressures. They're 1st and 6th in pass rush win rate.
I know the Chargers offense looked great last week.
Let's not gloss over the fact that Justin Herbert was really struggling heading into that Dallas game. The Chargers defense had been winning them football games, not Herbert or the offense.
Now we do need to point out that Geno Smith actually had some success against Houston last week... so I suppose you could say that Houston's secondary is vulnerable right now.
But do we let one weird flat game against the Raiders erase the entire season?
Are we expecting the Chargers to run the ball here?
I agree with the total down at 39.5... this should be a game dominated by defenses. I personally think Houston is slightly better in its current form and I like the matchup for Houston's defense. With a limited homefield advantage, I'd make this game a pick... so I played Houston +2.
RAVENS @ PACKERS - 8 PM
Packers in kind of a weird situation here.
Meanwhile... Baltimore in a "win or go home" situation.
Obviously the lead story for both offenses is the QB situation.
How much of a downgrade is Tyler Huntley from Lamar Jackson right now?
Last week against the Patriots.. that was the first time we've seen Huntley since the Bears game. He was 9/10 throwing the ball.
Packers defense also missing key players.
We know Baltimore's gonna be running the ball in this game.
Baltimore's offense has been a mess this year... but running the ball hasn't been a problem.
Stopping the run has been a problem for Green Bay.
On the other side of the ball, same story... we've got an injured QB. Malik Willis missed practice with an illness and is dealing with a sore shoulder btw. Clayton Tune from the practice squad is the next QB on the roster. Sean Rhyan also missed Thursday's practice.
Now Malik Willis playing QB makes this matchup interesting. What's Baltimore's glaring weakness? They can't pressure the QB. Well Malik Willis is not the type of QB that's gonna punish you for giving him a clean pocket. He played great in the Bears game... it was mostly running the ball and playing plays outside of the pocket.
We know Green Bay's gonna be looking to run the ball... Baltimore's been surprisingly strong against the run.
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